Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Wisconsin

This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2024 Wisconsin Badgers.

Week 4 Recap

The column goes 1-1 with Purdue failing to cover and the total going under. As alluded to, hilarious this is the game Nebraska figures out their second half offense.  The column does cash Banks FTD at +1100, so, big positive there.  Is this the week we finally cash in on fading Purdue?

Futures

For those unfamiliar, Sportsbooks put out betting lines at the start of every season for bets related to the entirety of the season.  These are known as “future bets” or “futures”.  I will keep these updated through the season to show change in perceptions by sportsbook on Purdue (lines provided by FanDuel, this is not an endorsement of FanDuel, please see caveat on shopping lines below).  Please note, the win total amounts will not change, with that being said:

Purdue to win the national title: 1000-to-1 (Opened 1000-to-1)

2024 Regular Season Wins: 4.5 (Over 4.5 wins +142, Under 4.5 wins -178)

Purdue to win 6 or more games: +300

Purdue to win the Big Ten: 400-to-1 (Opened 400-to-1)

Hudson Card Heisman: 500-1 

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 10/3/24:

Current spread: Purdue +14 (Opened Purdue 9.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +450, Wisconsin -485

1H Spread: Purdue +7.5, O/U 23.5

Over/Under: 45 (Opened 46.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 28% on Purdue, 58% on over

Money: 20% on Purdue, 20% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue heads to Madison sitting on the edge of the precipice.  In a move unseen before in my lifetime, Purdue has fired a coordinator before the halfway point of the season.  Will the new OC provide a spark to the Boilers offense flatlining?  How do the players ultimately respond?  Wisconsin is coming off a pretty substantial loss to the Trojans.  Both these teams have looked bad, with Purdue obviously looking much worse.  However, by Wisconsin standards, the season has been a disaster.  The public is all over Wisconsin, rightfully so.  Wisconsin has also dominated this series.  Hudson Card was three years old the last time Purdue beat Wisconsin.  How ironic would it be for this to be the year the streak ends?    

Trend Analysis for Wisconsin

· Purdue is 2-3 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Ryan Walters.

· Purdue is 3-7 ATS against conference opponents under Walters.

· Purdue is 4-6 ATS after a loss under Walters.

· The over is 1-3-1 when Purdue is an away underdog under Walters.

· The over is 5-4-1 when Purdue has played a conference opponent under Walters.

· The over is 6-3-1 the week after a Purdue loss under Walters.

· Wisconsin is 1-6-1 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Luke Fickell.

· Wisconsin is 4-5-1 ATS against conference opponents under Fickell.

· Wisconsin is 2-3-1 ATS after a loss under Fickell.

· The over is 2-6 when Wisconsin is a home favorite under Fickell.

· The over is 4-6 when Wisconsin plays a conference opponent under Fickell.

· The over is 3-3 the week after a Wisconsin loss under Fickell.

Miscellaneous Factors

· The Air Paid Offense.  The biggest news of the week for Purdue was obviously the dismissal of the one million dollar man, Graham Harrell.  Harrell brought in the air raid offense to pair with Walter’s defense in the hopes of forging a juggernaut of a program with two young coaches at the helm.  This, of course, proved to be anything but.  Walters did what any coach fighting off the impending apathy creeping over West Lafayette would have done, letting go of their OC 4 games into the season.  Will this make a difference?  Tune in on Saturday.  One would hope that change would bring SOME life to the offense, if only for a game or two.  A downtrodden Wisconsin team is a pretty good time to do it (No disrespect to Wisconsin, blowout losses to USC and Alabama certainly are more palatable than blowout losses to Oregon State and Nebraska).  

· We’re Going Streaking.  I’m sure Will Farrell screams this every time he sees Wisconsin add another win over Purdue in continuance of what has to be one of the longest losing streaks by one team over another in the college football landscape (Quick research shows only three P5 streaks longer: IU-O$U, Vanderbilt-Alabama, Duke-Florida State).  It is no secret that Wisconsin has been the boogeyman under Purdue’s bed since Kyle Orton led the Boilers to a 2003 win (Would have rather had 2004, but I digress).  Even the year Purdue went to the Big Ten Championship, a Wisconsin team, led by an interim head coach, found a way to pick off AOC three times and gain a 21-0 first quarter lead.  In a normal year, I am sure the streak may weigh on a program, however, this is not a normal year and Purdue does not have the time to dwell on a streak.         

· Welcome “Home”, Marcus Mbow and Drew Biber.  For those most excited to play in Madison, one would guess Mbow and Biber are at or near the top of that list.  Mbow, from Milwaukee, and Biber, from Cedarburg (a north Milwaukee suburb), both grew up about an hour and a half from Wisconsin’s campus.  While Milwaukee is not exactly a haul to West Lafayette, I am sure the lure of avoiding Chicago traffic is enough in and of itself to get a pretty good local fan turnout for these two players.  Here’s to hoping Mbow continues his growth and development, and maybe Biber can snag a touchdown. 

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  Let me be the first to ask… hey Sportsbook, are you enjoying the massive losses you are taking each week on Purdue?  I am not sure I have seen anything like this in my life.  Three straight weeks of virtually all the money being on Purdue’s opponent, and yet still, the opponent covers with relative ease.  Not only that, but in all three instances, on gameday, the line moved TOWARD Purdue.  So either, Sportsbooks genuinely thought Purdue would perform and Purdue failed to do so, or, Sportsbooks read this column and wanted me to look stupid.  If the latter, congrats, nailed it.  Once again, we are faced with all the money coming on the Purdue opponent.  Wisconsin, after two big defeats, albeit highly ranked teams, has 80% of the money.  If this spread moves to 13 or 12 on Saturday, you might as well hammer Wisconsin.  It truly makes no sense to me.  We have done this column for multiple years, and never have we seen a phenomenon like the past three weeks.  Reverse Line Movements getting BLOWN out of the water.  So, I come before you a broken man, once again crying wolf, or in this case, Boilers, as the contrarian in me has to take the Boilers.  Too much public money is on Wisconsin, period.  The vast difference in betting splits on the total once again suggest a low volume of betting.  This seems accurate, I doubt many people are circling the 45 number for a noon kick in Madison.  With that being said, when the big bettors have bet this, the under has been the play.     EDGE: Purdue, Under (but take with grain of salt due to low bet amount).

Trends: It is certainly not a coach’s job to worry about how their team does against the spread, in fact, it would be rather concerning if they did (I am sure some do, but that is a conversation to be had in a different forum).  However, typically, the coaches who win obviously also cover.  Here, we have two coaches who have not won at their respective schools and they have the ATS record to show for it.  Both are, to put it bluntly, mediocre ATS.  There is no trend analysis, because each team has been equally bad in covering.  Wisconsin has been particularly bad ATS as a home favorite, which bucks a trend from former Wisconsin coaches.  Purdue has been horrible ATS in Big Ten games.  Water has to find its level for one of these teams.  The under has been a cash cow for bettors when Wisconsin is a home favorite, while betting the over the game after a Purdue loss has shown to be rather profitable.  Purdue has also had unders hit as away favorites.   EDGE: Neither, Under.

Situation:  For the fourth straight week, Purdue faces an opponent who also is in a bad situational spot.  For big picture context, the best spot is to face a team coming off a huge win, or an upset.  The public typically overvalues that team due to recency bias, so there is value in taking the opposite side.  The best example I can give is when Purdue beat Ohio State in 2018, then got beat by Freshman Rocky Lombardi.  There was so much value on Michigan State because everyone saw Purdue beat Ohio State and then rode that wave.  On the flip side, a lot of times, people overreact to a bad team and create value.  Another more recent example, Minnesota- Michigan last week.  Michigan beats USC and Minnesota comes off a big loss to Iowa.  Minnesota looked horrible, yet they went into the Big House and not only covered, but had a chance to win that game  (Thank you Golden Gophers for the +10.5 cover).  For the fourth straight week, Purdue’s opponent is coming off either a big differential loss, an upset, or an overtime defeat in the case of Nebraska.  So, in a normal situation, Purdue would have a ton of value.  But, because their opponents have looked bad too, that value has diminished.  My thought is Purdue now is so low, they have to create some sort of value.  Wisconsin has two losses, but both two ranked opponents, no shame in that.  Additionally, I do think people will flock to the under because of the situation.  Wisconsin has traditionally been a defensive coded team who runs the football.  Purdue just fired their offensive coordinator after three weeks of a combined 38 points.  In what world would someone take the over?  In what world would someone take Purdue?  EDGE: Purdue, Over.

Total Analysis:  I know as soon as I bet against Purdue, Purdue is covering.  As a fan, taking Wisconsin spread would be the right thing to do.  My pride, however, says otherwise.  The numbers are the numbers and we will ride the numbers until death (or I run out of money, whichever comes first).  Purdue should get a little emotional offensive spark from the change in coordinator, and I would expect some life to be shown, if nothing else because Wisconsin’s defense has not exactly been stellar (13 points to an FCS team in a 14 point win is something).  Wisconsin’s offense has also been struggling… nothing like the Purdue defense to get an offense cooking (see ND v. Purdue, and Oregon State v. Purdue).  Give me Purdue, give me points, and give me a sprinkle on the irony that one of Purdue’s worst teams in 20 years is the team to end the Wisconsin win streak.

Prediction:  Wisconsin wins 31-24.

Official Plays: 1 Unit Purdue +13.5, 1 Unit Over 45.  .25 Unit Purdue ML +450.

Bonus Bets:  Drew Biber Anytime Touchdown +950; Wisconsin Defense Anytime Touchdown +340; Devin Mockobee +1100 First Touchdown (value is too good to pass up).

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and how to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 , a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Wisconsin by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new or unfamiliar gamblers. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a wager. Sportsbooks use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that you would need to be $11.50 to win $10. Either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.