Old National Presents Five Factors: Purdue's loss at Nebraska
In a bit of a nod to the basketball analytics community, GoldandBlack.com continues a different sort of post-game feature this season: Five Factors. This week, we look at Purdue’s 31-14 loss at Nebraska.
As basketball analytics folks have done for many years with their Four Factors model, we’ve identified five areas of the game we consider particularly important to Purdue this season, but perhaps not as closely paid attention to.
Each week, no matter the outcome of the game prior, we’ll break down those same five areas: Explosive plays, third- and fourth-and-short success, first-down productivity, defensive disruption and red zone offense.
Here it goes.
Today, Nebraska 31, Purdue 14
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS (20+ yards)
Purdue turning in just one explosive play marked a new season-low, as the Boilermakers struggled mightily on offense for most of Saturday’s contest. Jayden Dixon-Veal laid out for a diving touchdown catch from 29 yards out with 9:09 to play, getting the Boilermakers on the scoreboard for the first time in the game.
The shortage of explosive plays goes hand-in-hand with Purdue’s season-low 195 yards of total offense, as Purdue missed a few key opportunities to put points on the board early on.
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| Game | Explosive Plays | Run Game | Pass Game |
| Fresno State | 3 | 1 (20) | 2 (44, 84) |
| Virginia Tech | 6 | 3 (20, 21, 22) | 3 (26, 27, 36) |
| Syracuse | 4 | 0 | 4 (20, 21, 23, 25) |
| Wisconsin | 2 | 2 (24, 25) | 0 |
| Illinois | 3 | 0 | 3 (28, 30, 44) |
| Iowa | 3 | 0 | 3 (24, 25, 43) |
| Ohio State | 3 | 2 (21, 21) | 1 (35) |
| Nebraska | 1 | 0 | 1 (29) |
THIRD- AND FOURTH-AND-SHORT SUCCESS (three or fewer yards)
Purdue converted just twice when it found itself in third-and-short situations on Saturday. The Boilermakers turned to the air several times with mixed results, including with backup quarterback Bennett Meredith on the field, but several drives stalled out when Purdue needed points on the scoreboard. While the Boilermakers only went two-for-six on third-and-short, it went just five-for-16 on the day in third down situations.
| Game | Third-and-Short | Fourth-and-Short | Passing/Rushing |
| Fresno State | 2-5 | 2-4 | PASS: 2-4 RUN: 2-4 |
| Virginia Tech | 2-3 | 0-1 | PASS: 2-2 RUN: 0-2 |
| Syracuse | 1-4 | 1-4 | PASS: 1-3 RUN: 1-5 |
| Wisconsin | 1-2 | 0-0 | PASS: 0-1 RUN: 1-1 |
| Illinois | 4-5 | 0-0 | PASS: 1-2 RUN: 3-3 |
| Iowa | 6-8 | 0-0 | PASS: 2-3 RUN: 4-5 |
| Ohio State | 3-8 | 0-0 | PASS: 1-4 RUN: 2-4 |
| Nebraska | 2-6 | 0-1 | PASS: 2-5 RUN: 0-2 |
FIRST-DOWN PRODUCTIVITY
Purdue set a new season-low on first downs for the second straight week, averaging just 2.8 yards per play. The Boilermakers found themselves in second-and-third and long situations all day, as the third down numbers show. Nebraska’s defense came into this game as one of the conference’s best, and Purdue struggled mightily, scoring just one touchdown on offense.
| Game | Avg First Down Gain | Rushing | Passing |
| Fresno State | 5.54 yards | 11 – 46 | 8-14, 96 yds. |
| Virginia Tech | 4.62 yards | 21 – 51 | 5-13, 85 yds. |
| Syracuse | 5.63 yards | 14 – 49 | 13-21, 148 yds. |
| Wisconsin | 5.5 yards | 13 – 80 | 9-18, 96 yds. |
| Illinois | 6.2 yards | 21 – 96 | 8-12, 107 yds. |
| Iowa | 5.4 yards | 13 – 37 | 11-17, 142 yds. |
| Ohio State | 4.2 yards | 15 – 87 | 4-12, 26 yds. |
| Nebraska | 2.8 yards | 15 – 47 | 3-7, 15 yds. |
DEFENSIVE DISRUPTION
Purdue’s defense turned in its most-disruptive performance to date on Saturday, racking up 18 disruptive plays. Kydran Jenkins’ stats jumped off the page with 4.5 tackles for loss, two sacks and a forced fumble which he returned for a touchdown. On the back end, true freshman Dillon Thieneman forced two fumbles himself. The Boilermakers’ defense put the offense in good spots on a few occasions, but it wasn’t enough.
| Game | TFLs (yards) | Sacks (yards) | Forced fumbles | Pass breakups | Interceptions | TOTAL |
| Fresno State | 4 (16 yards) | 2 (12 yards) | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| Virginia Tech | 9 (54 yards) | 3 (33 yards) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Syracuse | 7 (23 yards) | 4 (18 yards) | 0 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| Wisconsin | 6 (8 yards) | 1 (1 yard) | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| Illinois | 7 (32 yards) | 5 (29 yards) | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| Iowa | 5 (16 yards) | 1 (10 yards) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Ohio State | 6 (23 yards) | 3 (14 yards) | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| Nebraska | 9 (43 yards) | 3 (24 yards) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
RED ZONE OFFENSE
Purdue’s offense only reached the red zone once on Saturday, starting a drive at the 13-yard line following a fumble recovery by the defense. It didn’t result in points for the Boilermakers, rather, it resulted in a blocked field goal, which Nebraska returned for a touchdown. The lone offensive touchdown came on a 29-yard pass from Hudson Card to Jayden Dixon-Veal, so the Boilermaker offense never drove itself into the red zone.
| Game | Red Zone Trips | Scores | TD | FG |
| Fresno State | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Syracuse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Illinois | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Iowa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ohio State | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
MORE: Ten Observations: Purdue-Nebraska | Saturday Simulcast | Three and Out
