Old National Presents--Five Factors: Purdue's win over Indiana

In a bit of a nod to the basketball analytics community, GoldandBlack.com continues a different sort of post-game feature this season: Five Factors. This week, we look at Purdue’s 35-31 win over Indiana.

As basketball analytics folks have done for many years with their Four Factors model, we’ve identified five areas of the game we consider particularly important to Purdue this season, but perhaps not as closely paid attention to.

Each week, no matter the outcome of the game prior, we’ll break down those same five areas: Explosive plays, third- and fourth-and-short success, first-down productivity, defensive disruption and red zone offense.

Here it goes.

Today, Purdue 35, Indiana 31

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS (20+ yards)

Purdue ripped off six explosive plays on Saturday, three coming from each the run and pass game. Two of the three runs of 20+ came from Hudson Card, who led the Boilermakers with 85 yards rushing in the season finale. He ripped off runs for 21 and 25 yards, both in scramble situations, while Tyrone Tracy tacked on a 28-yard run of his own.

In the pass game, Card’s three explosive plays all came at critical junctures in the game. His 33-yard touchdown pass to George Burhenn put the Boilermakers on the scoreboard after early struggles to move the ball. Then, on a fourth down with Purdue trailing by 10, he found Devin Mockobee down the west sideline for a 38-yard score. Finally, with the Boilermakers down three, he hit Deion Burks for a 44-yard gain to set up the game-winning score. The explosive plays highlighted Card’s herculean effort, as he was far from 100% healthy after missing last week’s game with a rib injury.

Game	Explosive Plays	Run Game	Pass Game
Fresno State	3	1 (20)	2 (44, 84)
Virginia Tech	6	3 (20, 21, 22)	3 (26, 27, 36)
Syracuse	4	0	4 (20, 21, 23, 25)
Wisconsin	2	2 (24, 25)	0
Illinois	3	0	3 (28, 30, 44)
Iowa	3	0	3 (24, 25, 43)
Ohio State	3	2 (21, 21)	1 (35)
Nebraska	1	0	1 (29)
Michigan	4	2 (21, 24)	2 (24, 43)
Minnesota	9	5 (22, 24, 32, 33, 65)	4 (20, 24, 42, 52)
Northwestern	6	3 (20, 27, 62)	3 (21, 25, 28)
Indiana	6	3 (21, 25, 28)	3 (33, 38, 44)

THIRD- AND FOURTH-AND-SHORT SUCCESS (three or fewer yards)

After back-to-back 300-yard rushing performances, Purdue didn’t run the ball particularly well against Indiana. That reality was well-reflected in third-and-short situations, where Purdue only moved the chains on one of its four tries on the ground. Purdue did convert through the air, however. Card found Drew Biber for a touchdown in the second quarter on third-and-short, and the touchdown pass to Mockobee came on Purdue’s lone fourth down attempt of the afternoon.

Game	Third-and-Short	Fourth-and-Short	Passing/Rushing
Fresno State	2-5	2-4	PASS: 2-4 RUN: 2-4
Virginia Tech	2-3	0-1	PASS: 2-2 RUN: 0-2
Syracuse	1-4	1-4	PASS: 1-3 RUN: 1-5
Wisconsin	1-2	0-0	PASS: 0-1 RUN: 1-1
Illinois	4-5	0-0	PASS: 1-2 RUN: 3-3
Iowa	6-8	0-0	PASS: 2-3 RUN: 4-5
Ohio State	3-8	0-0	PASS: 1-4 RUN: 2-4
Nebraska	2-6	0-1	PASS: 2-5 RUN: 0-2
Michigan	0-3	1-1	PASS: 1-2 RUN: 0-2
Minnesota	2-4	1-1	PASS: 0-2 RUN: 3-3
Northwestern	5-9	2-5	RUN: 6-11 PASS: 1-3
Indiana	3-8	1-1	RUN: 1-4 PASS: 3-5

FIRST-DOWN PRODUCTIVITY

Purdue featured its most run-heavy approach of the season on first down plays, opting to run the ball on 25 of its 36 tries. The method of operation worked effectively. Purdue averaged a modest 4.5 yards per carry on first downs, but it kept the Hoosiers off balance, as the passing game averages over 10 yards per attempt in these situations. Of course, the number is inflated by Card’s 44-yard bomb to Burks, but the point still stands. The 6.4 yards per first down play ranks second behind the Minnesota game for the Boilermakers this year, with Illinois coming in third. Is it a coincidence that all three resulted in Purdue victories? You be the judge.

Game	Avg First Down Gain	Rushing	Passing
Fresno State	5.54 yards	11 – 46	8-14, 96 yds.
Virginia Tech	4.62 yards	21 – 51	5-13, 85 yds.
Syracuse	5.63 yards	14 – 49	13-21, 148 yds.
Wisconsin	5.5 yards	13 – 80	9-18, 96 yds.
Illinois	6.2 yards	21 – 96	8-12, 107 yds.
Iowa	5.4 yards	13 – 37	11-17, 142 yds.
Ohio State	4.2 yards	15 – 87	4-12, 26 yds.
Nebraska	2.8 yards	15 – 47	3-7, 15 yds.
Michigan	4.3 yards	16 – 75	4-7, 24 yds.
Minnesota	7.4 yards	22 – 130	7-11, 121 yds.
Northwestern	5.5 yards	19 – 112	10-13, 70 yds.
Indiana	6.4 yards	25 – 113	9-11, 118 yds.

DEFENSIVE DISRUPTION

Purdue’s defense didn’t turn in a particularly disruptive performance, but when it did, it impacted the game heavily. For just the second time of the year, Purdue intercepted multiple passes, picking off Brendan Sorsby three times in the first half. Perhaps no play loomed larger, however, than Nic Scourton’s tackle for loss on the Hoosiers’ final offensive play. His stop caused a turnover on downs and allowed the Boilermaker offense to kneel the game away and secure the Old Oaken Bucket for another year. The 11 disruptive plays ranked as the fourth least-disruptive performance of the season.

Game	TFLs (yards)	Sacks (yards)	Forced fumbles	Pass breakups	Interceptions	TOTAL
Fresno State	4 (16 yards)	2 (12 yards)	0	3	1	10
Virginia Tech	9 (54 yards)	3 (33 yards)	1	2	2	17
Syracuse	7 (23 yards)	4 (18 yards)	0	5	1	17
Wisconsin	6 (8 yards)	1 (1 yard)	0	4	1	12
Illinois	7 (32 yards)	5 (29 yards)	1	3	0	16
Iowa	5 (16 yards)	1 (10 yards)	0	1	1	8
Ohio State	6 (23 yards)	3 (14 yards)	2	4	0	15
Nebraska	9 (43 yards)	3 (24 yards)	4	2	0	18
Michigan	5 (37 yards)	3 (34 yards)	0	4	0	12
Minnesota	2 (15 yards)	1 (14 yards)	0	5	0	8
Northwestern	6 (30 yards)	5 (29 yards)	1	3	1	16
Indiana	4 (13 yards)	2 (10 yards)	0	2	3	11

RED ZONE OFFENSE

After a rocky start to the game, Purdue finished the day with a mixed bag of results inside the red zone. On one end, Ben Freehill’s missed 30-yard field goal attempt on Purdue’s first possession set an ominous tone for the game. After that, though, the Boilermakers scored on their next four trips inside the 20. But, just two of those scores were a touchdown, as Purdue settled for two more field goal attempts in the red zone, both sailing through the uprights. Had Indiana scored on its final drive and flipped the result of the game, leaving points on the field in the red zone could be an easy area to point to. Scourton’s stop made that a moot point, and Purdue did just enough in the red zone to close the 2023 season with a victory.

Game	Red Zone Trips	Scores	TD	FG
Fresno State	4	3	3	0
Virginia Tech	2	2	2	0
Syracuse	6	3	3	0
Wisconsin	4	3	2	1
Illinois	5	5	4	1
Iowa	2	1	1	0
Ohio State	3	1	1	0
Nebraska	1	0	0	0
Michigan	2	2	0	2
Minnesota	5	5	5	0
Northwestern	4	2	2	0
Indiana	5	4	1	3