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Game 13 Preview: #1 Purdue @ Maryland

On3 imageby:Brian Neubert•01/02/24•

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Purdue guard Braden Smith
Purdue guard Braden Smith (Chad Krockover)

COLLEGE PARK, Md. — No. 1 Purdue resumes its hunt for a second straight Big Ten regular season title Tuesday night, as conference play resumes at Maryland.

DETAILS: Tuesday, Jan. 2, 2024 | 7 p.m. ET | TV: Peacock (Paul Burmeister, Tre Demps) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (13-1, 1-1 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
MARYLAND (9-4, 1-1 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

TeamAPCoachesNETKenPomKenPom Win%
Purdue113282%
Maryland——1098318%

THREE THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• Purdue resumes Big Ten play at 1-1, having dropped an OT game at Northwestern in December, followed closely by a blowout win over Iowa.

The Boilermakers just finished off their third-consecutive unbeaten non-conference regular season. This will be just their second true road game, not counting the Arkansas exhibition, though that experience certainly matters.

• It’s debatable whether this was related to Maryland or not, but Purdue was 2-of-13 from three in both games against the Terps last season. They split two meetings.

• This will likely be a key defensive matchup for Lance Jones on Jahmir Young. Jones is Purdue’s top on-ball defender. For context on his importance, Boo Buie didn’t truly go off against Purdue until Jones fouled out.

A FEW THINGS ABOUT THIS GAME

• The Terps haven’t lost at the Xfinity Center since February of 2022, meaning they’re unbeaten at home under Kevin Willard, but they really pressed their luck in an overtime win over Penn State that the Nittany Lions probably should have won, then again in a way-too-close-for-comfort pre-holidays win over Nicholls State. Maryland’s triple-digit NET ranking and robust KenPom ranking reflect a weak schedule to this point. The Terrapins did win at middling UCLA, but hasn’t played a KenPom top-100 team at home as of yet and got drilled by Villanova on the road.

• Familiar faces all around: Super senior guard Jahmir Young, now 23, averages 19-plus points per game. Fellow 23-year-old Donta Scott is back for Year 5, too. Julian Reese, probably the second-best big man in the Big Ten, averages 14 and 10 or, but will have to contend with Zach Edey on defense and has really struggled at the foul line.

• Maryland is a top-25 KenPom defense but its underlying offensive metrics aren’t great, shooting and effective field goal percentage of just 47 percent, weighed down by abominable 28-percent three-point shooting, with a turnover rate of more than 17 percent. The Terps scored just 40 points vs. Villanova and 53 in a loss at Indiana. In its last two buy games at home, it scored just 73 against Nicholls State, a come-from-behind win, and 75 vs. Coppin State.

During non-conference play, only Northwestern and Rutgers have averaged fewer points than Maryland.

TURNOVERSPOISEATTRITION
It’s just this simple. This is Purdue’s greastest path to upset losses all season and especially at Maryland, which really struggles to score.One of the stories of the season: Purdue getting peoples’ ‘best shot.’ Maryland will make a run or two, provided it’s not stuck in D.C. traffic.It would be helpful if Edey took a toll on Reese, and may Purdue running Young through a bunch of screens could help Lance Jones some with that defensive assignment.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 77, MARYLAND 69

Purdue’s already dropped one Big Ten road game to a high-scoring 23-year-old guard. This should be different.

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