Game 14 Preview: #1 Purdue vs #9 Illinois

In what may be one of the biggest games of the Big Ten season, top-ranked Purdue hosts new-look Illinois Friday night in a matchup of two top-10 teams.

The Fighting Illini, though, were profoundly changed when likely All-American Terrence Shannon was lost last week to an indefinite suspension after he was charged with rape in Kansas.

Though basketball relevance is a secondary concern given the severity of the allegations, Illinois has either rallied since losing Shannon or run on home-floor adrenaline to the tune of back-to-back 30-point wins, including one over Northwestern, the team that accounts for the Boilermakers’ lone setback of the season.

DETAILS: Friday, Jan. 5, 2024 | 8:30 p.m. ET | TV: FS1 (Brandon Gaudin, Robbie Hummel) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (13-1, 2-1 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
ILLINOIS (11-2, 2-0 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	1	1	3	2	75%
Illinois	9	8	7	8	25%

THREE THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• Coming off a 67-53 win at Maryland, Purdue is now second and sixth nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Boilermakers are coming off a strong defensive game in College Park, albeit against a strangely impotent offensive team, and another very good offensive showing, as its modest 67-point output was weighed down by the Terps accidentally shortening the game by rebounding many of their particularly badly missed shots.

Purdue got just 59 possessions at Maryland. For both-extremes comparison’s sake, that shootout Purdue won against Alabama in Toronto, it got 70 possessions. Arizona, it was 72 possessions and Tennessee was 73.

The Boilermakers average 78.5 points against ranked opponents and this will be the first such game played at home.

• It remains to be seen how the rest of Illinois’ season plays out if it’s without Shannon, but for the time being this looks like one of what might be only a few chances this season for a Quad 1 home win, which includes 1-30 in the NET rankings. The Illini are currently No. 7.

• Purdue is shooting 40.1 percent from three-point this season in Mackey Arena and 38.9 overall from three.

Braden Smith still leads the way at 48.9 percent and Fletcher Loyer is sneaking up on 40 percent, sitting at 39.4 right now.

• Trey Kaufman-Renn is quietly shooting 6-of-13 from three-point range this season. Camden Heide is 4-of-7 vs. high-major competition.

• Senior Carson Barrett has been awarded a scholarship for the rest of the season. When Purdue has an in-season opening, it normally gives it to a tenured walk-on.

• Forward Mason Gillis hurt his toe Thursday, but will play. The hard-charging forward is often playing through something. He’s been playing outstanding lately.

• Got this far without mentioning Player-of-the-Year front-runner Zach Edey, but his updated line: 23.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, 62.4-percent shooting and 76.7-percent foul shooting on immense volume.

But … he’s 0-for-1 from three.

A FEW THINGS ABOUT THIS GAME

• Lance Jones‘ former teammate at Southern Illinois, Marcus Domask figures to take on more of the scoring load for Illinois sans Shannon, who had averaged more than 20 points per game prior to his suspension and was clearly headed for All-America honors.

Domask, a 6-foot-6 super-senior guard/wing, put 32 on Northwestern and has produced the most against the best teams, including a 33-point game in a win over ranked FAU and an 18-point, season-best 3-of-7-from-three game in a home loss to Marquette.

Good chance Jones draws at least some of the assignment guarding his former teammate, even though he’ll give up some height.

Domask is shooting just 21 percent from three-point range and has turned the ball over three or more times in seven games this season, two footnotes Purdue would love to see continue.

• A few common opponents for these two teams. Purdue beat Tennessee and Marquette on neutral floors. Illinois fell to Marquette at home and Tennessee on the road. Purdue lost in double overtime at Northwestern in its first official road game. Illinois beat the Wildcats by 30 in Champaign.

• Veteran big man Coleman Hawkins should be a major concern for Purdue, particularly if Illinois plays smaller with him at center. The 6-foot-10 forward’s length and mobility have always been assets for the Illini, but also he’s shooting threes better than ever, and he’s shooting a lot of them. After a 2-for-14 start to the season, Hawkins is shooting 44 percent the past five games, including five makes in a rout of FDU at the State Farm Center.

Fellow forward Quincy Guerrier, another super senior one-year transfer, can shoot, too. He’s shooting around 33 percent, but is 12-of-23 the past five games, including 5-of-8 in a rout of Missouri.

• Domask (6-6, 215 pounds), Justin Harmon (6-4, 200) and Ty Rodgers (6-6, 210) – a high-energy and defensive-minded positionless type who has actually played some point guard for Illinois — give Brad Underwood’s team a trio of big and versatile perimeter players who’ll post up on offense, back smaller guards down and can guard different types on defense.

This will be a challenge for Purdue and its smaller backcourt, but not an unprecedented one. Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, Arizona and even Maryland created some similar dynamics.

(It might hold strategic relevance that Rodgers has yet to so much as attempt a three-pointer this season. He was 0-for-1 last season, officially.)

• Illinois is No. 18 nationally in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, highlighted by it holding opponents to a pathetic 40.6 percent on two-point field goals, part of a D that allows an effective field goal percentage of just 42.5, third best nationally.

The Illini are No. 12 in offensive efficiency, but it’s probably fair to suggest theit body of work without Shannon remains too shallow for the broader numbers to mean all that much.

HANDLING PRESSURE	TOUGHNESS	POISE
Illinois always plays with urgency and their size and interchangeable nature on D are the sort of thing Purdue’s overcome all season, but it will always be a pressure point given the importance of limiting turnovers and feeding the post,	The glass will be an immense key to this game, as will Zach Edey either being more physical than Dane Dainja or really taking it to Coleman Hawkins if he plays the 5. Also, Illinois will post up its guards and wings, so Purdue’s will have to fight.	Mackey Arena is going to be a maelstrom Friday night, even without the students, and Illinois’ effort level will likely be a high bar for Purdue to not just meet but exceed.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 77, ILLINOIS 69

Could be wrong here, but Illinois’ last two wins profile as adrenaline games following the loss of its best player and that’s not always sustainable, especially away from home. There will be tricky matchups as always, but Purdue hasn’t shown many real vulnerabilities when it’s not turning the ball over. The home court is a big advantage for Purdue, even with the students gone. Illinois will likely have to shoot out of its mind. Can it do so on the road?