Game 16 Preview: #1 Purdue vs. Penn State

Coming off its second loss of the season, top-ranked Purdue returns home for a game it simply can’t afford to lose, hosting rebuilding Penn State Saturday afternoon.

This will be Purdue’s first matchup with new Nittany Lions coach Mike Rhoades, who left VCU to replace former Boilermaker staffer and dear friend of the program Micah Shrewsberry when he left for Notre Dame.

DETAILS: Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024 | 2:15 p.m. ET | TV: BTN (Dave Revsine, Robbie Humme) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (14-2, 3-2 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
PENN STATE (8-8, 2-3 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	1	1	3	3	97%
Penn State	—	—	126	113	3%

A FEW THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• Purdue opponents are shooting 42.2 percent from three through five Big Ten games.

• In Big Ten play, Camden Heide has made five of the seven three-pointers he’s attempted.

Fletcher Loyer is shooting 52.4 percent from three through five conference games and Mason Gillis 52.9.

• Not good: In Big Ten play, Purdue has committed 63 turnovers but benefited from or forced only 40.

• It never was easy but Purdue was 5-0 against Penn State under Shrewsberry. Amazingly those five wins came in five different buildings in five different cities.

Obviously this is the Boilermakers’ first meeting with Mike Rhoades at Penn State, but they did earn a hard-fought win over his VCU team in Destin in 2019.

A FEW THINGS ABOUT THIS GAME

• Kanye Clary, one of the few notable holdovers from the last staff, is one of the quickest, fastest players in the Big Ten. Keeping him contained and out of transition will be Job 1 for Purdue. He averages almost 19 points, and does it pretty efficiently, shooting well north of 50 percent on two-point shots and 37 percent from three. He’s an automatic foul shooter as well, so Purdue must be wary of keeping Penn State out of the bonus, because touch fouls on Clary will be the same as layups.

Clary’s averaging 21.6 points in Big Ten play, same as Zach Edey.

• Former VCU standout Ace Baldwin came over with Rhoades and has given Penn State even more athleticism, experience and defensive chops. He’s a steal magnet.

• Turnovers are the name of the game for Penn State, which is bringing Rhoades’ pressing style to a Big Ten that doesn’t generally play that way. Opponents are turning the ball on 23 percent of their possessions, per KenPom.

Baldwin averages 2.9 steals per game, leading the Big Ten by a mile. He’s averaging 3.2 in conference games.

• Penn State shoots just 29.7 percent from three.

• The Lions are not well stocked on the interior. Well-traveled Qudus Wahad — previously of every high-major basketball program in the D.C. area — is their primary big man. He’s seen Edey before while at Maryland, but will be hard-pressed to stack up one-on-one, which he almost certainly won’t be asked to.

• Rebounding is an open wound for Penn State. It basically doesn’t do it.

• Penn State guard Jameel Brown was once committed to Purdue but the Philly native opted for Penn State after Shrewsberry left West Lafayette. Since, things have played uout as they did with C.J. Walker years back, as it was his decommitment that led to Purdue settling for future All-American Carsen Edwards. Brown’s decommitment ultimately led to Purdue offering and signing Braden Smith.

CRUSH THE GLASS	THE BONUS	CONTAINMENT
This game could resemble buy-game dynamics in that the opponent should be overwhelmed around the rim. Maybe Purdue’s 37-percent offensive rebounding rate shows up big-time here.	Purdue hasn’t gotten much out of it lately and that’s normally a strength. Meanwhile, if Penn State gets there, Baldwin and Clary may feast at the line.	Easier said than done, but Purdue has to keep Clary and Baldwin out of the paint and out of transition, without fouling. Important defensive game for Braden Smith, Lance Jones, etc.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 77, PENN STATE 62

There are some tricky matchups here, but Purdue’s been good against the press and should dominate around the basket. Purdue does have a turnover issue, but more of the self-inflicted variety. It’ll be fine in this game.

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