Game 17 Preview: #2 Purdue @ Indiana

In one of the more anticipated games of the year and one of the Boilermakers’ greatest tests, second-ranked Purdue visits rival Indiana hoping to turn the tides in the rivalry again, after the Hoosiers have pulled upsets in three of the past four meetings.

DETAILS: Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2024 | 7 p.m. ET | TV: Peacock (Noah Eagle, Robbie Hummel) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network

************ ICYMI: THE GAME IS ON PEACOCK *************
PURDUE (15-2, 4-2 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
INDIANA (12-5, 4-2 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	2	2	3	3	84%
Indiana	—	—	97	90	16%

A FEW THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• Coming off a clean showing vs. Penn State in which it scored 95 points, Purdue’s second nationally in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, but it has dipped to 22 in defensive efficiency after Nebraska made all those threes and scored 86.

• Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis are each shooting 50 percent from three through six Big Ten games on robust volume, but the bulk of Purdue’s attempts have come from Lance Jones, who’s attempted 44 triples — Loyer’s next with just 24 — and made 32 percent.

Braden Smith is 7-of-18 and Camden Heide 7-of-9.

Purdue is shooting a rock-solid 39.3 percent in Big Ten games.

• Here’s the name of the game: Purdue has allowed 20 and 18 points off turnovers, respectively, in its losses at Northwestern and Nebraska.

Guess what happened when Purdue lost at IU last season? Indiana got 20 points off turnovers.

Turnovers are a big deal for Purdue.

Through six conference games, Purdue’s turnover percentage of 18.5 percentage is second-worst in the conference and defensively its turnover percentage of 11.7 is dead last.

A FEW THINGS ABOUT THIS GAME

• Again, Indiana is built around its frontcourt, as sophomore Malik Reneau averages 16.3 points and newcomer Kel’el Ware 14.8. (Ware also averages 11-and-a-half rebounds in Big Ten play.)

Both are formidable scoring on the interior and working the glass, but a pressing concern for Purdue has to be their collective ability to step out and shoot. They are a combined 21-of-49 from three-point range, and the Boilermakers are highly vulnerable to bigs who can shoot.

• Despite its bigs being able to shoot efficiently on modest volume, IU shoots just 33.7 percent from three. Purdue would be wise to expect them to shoot much better on their home floor but that number ranks middle-of-the-pack nationally.

• IU has taken a bit of a step back defensively from the solid tams they’ve had the past few season, but in Big Ten games, it’s No. 1 in the league in efficiency, though early games vs. a slew of offensively stunted teams have guided that number to a certain extent.

• Indiana gets to the line a lot but shoots just 66 percent as a team. Its two leading scorers are both sub-70 percent.

• Point guard Xavier Johnson has been in and out of the lineup for some time now for IU, and missed both games last season with Purdue as he missed most of the season. Johnson’s always been a bit of a wild card in his decision-making and behavior (as Rutgers can at-test) but he can absolutely make floaters and runners, a vulnerability of Purdue’s style of ball-screen defense.

• Trey Galloway is one of the best perimeter defenders in the Big Ten. Who he matches up with remains to be seen. Loyer, maybe.

TURNOVERS AND POISE	REBOUNDING	FOULS
Obviously. This is the demon Purdue needs to exorcise in games like this, as they’ve cost the Boilermakers dearly in each of their two losses and factored heavily into past losses in Bloomington as well.	This should be a major advantage for Purdue again, as it’s the more physical team and IU isn’t great on the offensive glass. Second-chance opportunities will loom large.	Both of these teams are built to get to the line and both need to avoid foul trouble up front at all costs. Purdue will attack IU in the post; IU’s guards will attack Zach Edey in drop coverage.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 77, INDIANA 69

Jalen Hood-Schifino is gone, and this Indiana team doesn’t have the easiest time scoring. Assume IU will shoot above its percentages and get to the line a bunch and even then, the Hoosiers might need help from Purdue to put a big number up on the board. That’s the rub for Purdue, though: Turnovers.

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