Game 27 Preview: #3 Purdue vs Rutgers

Holding a two-game lead once again in the Big Ten standings and needing to hold serve at home, third-ranked Purdue hosts a new-look Rutgers team Thursday night, the Boilermakers looking to complete a two-game regular season sweep of the Scarlet Knights.

DETAILS: Thursday, Feb. 22, 2023 | 7 p.m. ET | TV: FS1 (Jason Benetti, Rob Hummell) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (23-3, 12-3 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
RUTGERS (14-11, 6-8 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	3	3	2	2	93%
Rutgers	—	—	90	83	7%

A FEW THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• Coming off a turnover-marred 73-69 loss at Ohio State — the Buckeyes scored 22 points off turnovers — Purdue’s lead in the Big Ten race dropped from two games to one, but only for a few days, as Illinois’ stunning meltdown at Penn State again put the Boilermakers up two games in the standings.

• As the regular season winds down, Purdue sits second nationally, per KenPom, in offensive efficiency and 20th defensively, but both those metrics mask the elephant in the room.

In its three losses this season, Purdue allowed 20 points off turnovers at Northwestern (OT), 18 at Nebraska and 22 at Ohio State. That’s an average of 20 points off turnovers per loss.

It really is that simple.

And it bears mentioning that in the first game with Rutgers, 17 of its points came off 15 Purdue turnovers.

• Zach Edey went for 26, 12 and four blocks in the first meeting with Rutgers. Purdue won despite going 5-of-19 from three and being largely kept off the offensive glass. Braden Smith scored 19 and Lance Jones posted one of the oddest stat lines of the season: 1-for-10, 10 rebounds, eight assists, five steals.

A FEW THINGS ABOUT THIS GAME

• Rutgers added a key piece in-season — peak college basketball in 2024 — when Iowa State-and-Temple transfer Jeremiah Williams was declared eligible shortly after the loss to Purdue. As a second-time transfer, Williams was sitting out this season until the NCAA’s year-in-residence requirement for non-one-time transfers was struck down in court. He then sued to play now, won and debuted Feb. 3 at Michigan.

The Chicagoan stepped immediately into the starting lineup and gave the Knights a shot of energy and high-end athleticism. He seemed to spark Rutgers’ four-game winning streak, which was snapped this weekend at Minnesota.

In five games, Williams has averaged a team-high 13.2 points and four assists.

Like Rutgers’ other guards, he’s not a great three-point shooter nor particularly efficient as a shooter, period, but he is a slasher and tricky matchup at 6-foot-4, 180-ish pounds with ample length and athleticism.

• Rutgers is 276th nationally in offensive efficiency and one of the lowest-percentage shooting teams in the country, worst in the Big Ten, but that’s nothing new.

Steve Pikiell’s program does force turnovers, guard and rebound.

Rutgers is No. 2 nationally in defensive efficiency.

• Rutgers is just a 29-percent three-point shooting team, but did get hot making threes and pull-up jumpers in Piscataway previously vs. Purdue. Freshman Gavin Griffiths gave Rutgers a spark with his mid-range shooting in that game. Purdue ought to be highly wary of him in this game, particularly on baseline out-of-bounds plays. He’s scored two points total the past five games, though.

TURNOVERS	DRIBBLE PENETRATION	REBOUNDING
This is the only story from Purdue’s losses and did contribute to Rutgers’ comeback in the first meeting.	Rutgers’ slashers — now headlined by Williams — are going to put Purdue’s ability to knock out initial surges to the test.	Purdue was outrebounded in Jersey, and the offensive glass brought Rutgers back. Purdue has to flip that script. Not easy against Cliff Omoruyi and Rutgers rebounding culture.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 74, RUTGERS 64

Don’t expect this to be pretty, but if Purdue can just take care of the basketball and get everyone to rebound from the get-go, Purdue should be OK here, but the Knights’ style — disruptive defense, relentless rebounding and iso-heavy offense — can be problematic for Purdue if the Boilermakers aren’t on and Rutgers is.