Game 29 Preview: #2 Purdue vs Michigan State
With at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title there for the taking, No. 2 Purdue hosts Michigan State Saturday night for the one and only meeting between the two programs prior to the postseason.
DETAILS: Saturday, March 2, 2024 | 8 p.m. ET | TV: FOX (Jason Benetti, Jim Jackson) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (25-3, 14-3 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
MICHIGAN STATE (17-11, 9-8 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
A FEW THINGS ABOUT PURDUE
• With a win — or an Illinois loss at Wisconsin prior to tip-off in West Lafayette — Purdue would clinch at least a share of the Big Ten regular season. Both, then Purdue wins it outright. It would be Matt Painter’s fifth Big Ten title at Purdue, along with the two Big Ten Tournament titles his teams have won.
• Braden Smith leads the Big Ten with an average of 7.8 assists in conference games. With Zach Edey leading the league in scoring and rebounding, Purdue will almost certainly top all three categories.
• Purdue’s won seven of the last eight vs. Michigan State.
• This is the first of three straight Quad 1 (as of now) games for Purdue to close out the regular season. After Michigan State, Purdue will travel to Illinois, then host Wisconsin.
A FEW THINGS ABOUT THIS GAME
• Michigan State has been pretty disappointing this season, a preseason top-five-ish team that brings just a 17-11 record into Mackey Arena, where it hasn’t won since 2014. The Spartans have played themselves onto the Bubble with home losses to Iowa and Ohio State lately.
But the computers still like Tom Izzo’s team, as it’s top 25 in the NET and 21st on KenPom. How? You’d have to ask Ken that. Of KenPom’s top 30, only Villanova has more losses, with 12.
• The Spartans are old, with COVID-year players Tyson Walker and Malik Hall, true seniors AJ Hoggard and Mady Sissoko and junior Jaden Akins all back from last season, making the Spartans one of the most experienced and oldest teams you’ll find, but one that’s also been incorporating a number of talented freshmen, notably super-athletic Coen Carr.
• Michigan State has had some issues at center, where Sissoko is very limited offensively, Jaxson Kohler missed the early portion of the season and freshman Xavier Booker of Indianapolis has shown flashes but also clearly hasn’t been deemed by Izzo to be ready for a more expansive role. To the dismay at times of fans frustrated by Michigan State’s other bigs’ low ceilings, the former five-star recruit has averaged 8.5 minutes this season, though he did nearly hit a season-high with 17 minutes vs. Ohio State, before sitting out crunch time.
The 5 is important. Michigan State historically defends one-on-one in the post, though you have to really question the rationality of such an approach against Zach Edey.
Last season, Edey went for 32 and 17 rebounds at Michigan State, capping the performance with the game-winning shot. A few weeks later in Mackey Arena, Edey scored 38 with 13 rebounds.
Purdue has to be ready for anything from Michigan State, because it would be hard to fathom Izzo letting this continue. Also, understand that he will be all over the officials.
• In Michigan State’s last five games, forward Malik Hall has averaged 20 points on nearly 70-percent shooting. He will be a really tricky matchup for Purdue’s 4 men due to his ability to face up and drive and just score a variety of different ways. Look for him to be a real focal point for the Spartans.
• Tyson Walker averages 17 points in Big Ten play and is one of the league’s deadliest shooters and backcourt scorers. Michigan State has historically looked to force Purdue into switching a big man onto him, so watch out for that. Gotta figure Lance Jones is his primary defender but that then leaves Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer with bigger guards to defend.
• Michigan State is historically an excellent rebounding team, but its offensive rebounding metrics this season aren’t great, an indictment in part of its post players.
• The Sopartans have allowed just 68 points per game in Big Ten play this season and ran 15th nationally in defensive efficiency on KenPom.
| TURNOVERS, TURNOVERS, TURNOVERS | TRANSITION | REBOUNDING |
| It’s the same key every game and will be for every game to come. The correlation between turnovers and Purdue’s vulnerability is air-tight and undeniable. | Michigan State’s long-standing M.O. is to rebound and run. Transition defense, limiting turnovers and shot quality always loom large against them. | This is where Purdue can really lean on people until they break, and this is not a typical Spartan team on the glass. On average in Big Ten play, MSU has been out-rebounded this season. |
GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 75, MICHIGAN STATE 68
Normally, this would a terrifying situation, to get Michigan State when it’s desperate, which it may be coming off back to back losses and a week to sit in it. But Purdue has dominated this series of late for a reason and is again the better team, with homecourt advantage to boot. And Zach Edey.
