Matchup Preview: Purdue at Illinois

Purdue at Illinois

Saturday, November 12, Noon ET, Memorial Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 60,670

2022 schedules/records: Illinois 7-2 (4-2 Big Ten), Purdue 5-4 (3-3 Big Ten)

Series Notes: The Cannon series stands out as one of the most competitive in Purdue’s history. The Boilers took the all-time series lead last year, clinging to a 46-45-6 advantage dating back to the first meeting in 1890. Since Jeff Brohm took over in 2017, he’s done well against Illinois, winning four of the five matchups, including last year’s 13-9 victory in Ross-Ade Stadium. Purdue holds a five-game win streak in Champaign, winning in every even year since 2010 when they head west on I-74. Overall, the Boilermakers have won 13 of the last 17 matchups in this series.

TV: ESPN2 (PxP Jay Alter, Analyst Dustin Fox, Sidelines Lauren Sisler)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Pete Quinn, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Illinois -6.5

Pregame: Gold and Black Radio

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Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Illinois Roster | Illinois Game Notes

Illinois running game versus Purdue against the run

Through nine games, Illinois running back Chase Brown ranks second in the FBS with 149.3 rushing yards per game. After losing number two running back Josh McCray for the season in their opener, Brown has received the handoff early and often in every game for the Illini, averaging more than 28 carries per game. The numbers pop off the page. Brown has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in every game this season, going for 129 yards or more against every Big Ten opponent. Reggie Love III will see the sporadic carry to spell Brown, while quarterback Tommy DeVito can take it himself in some of Illinois’ run-pass option concepts. The Illini like to run the ball and do it well, averaging 192 yards per game on the ground.

After a solid start to the season, Purdue again struggled to stop the run against Iowa a week ago. Iowa ran for 184 yards on the Boilermaker defense, including a 75-yard touchdown run that put Purdue away early in the second half. Two straight opponents with a physical identity have successfully run the ball against Purdue, who will face another physical opponent this week. Purdue would love to get linebacker OC Brothers healthier. The Auburn transfer sticks out as Purdue’s most athletic linebacker, which the Boilermakers could greatly use when trying to stop outside runs. While Chase Brown will run the ball with some success, Purdue needs to limit that to have a chance on Saturday.

Illinois passing game versus Purdue against the pass

After putting the Big Ten’s worst passing offense on the field in 2021, Illinois brought in Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito to play quarterback, and it’s been a positive addition. The run-heavy team doesn’t put tremendous pressure on the quarterback, but DeVito has done everything he’s been asked to. With a 71% completion rate, DeVito’s efficiency keeps the Illini ahead of the chains and in manageable situations. Though he only throws for 209 yards per game, his 14 touchdowns to two interceptions ratio is exactly what the Illini offense needs from him.

Converted quarterback Isaiah Williams enters as Illinois’ clear top target in the passing game. While he’s utilized mainly in the short passing game, he’s a yards-after-catch threat to make explosive plays with the ball in his hands. The Illini won’t avoid using Brown in the passing game, as he’s a standard check-down option for DeVito.

Much maligned Spencer Petras had his way with Purdue’s defense last weekend, marking a low point for the Purdue pass defense, which has struggled mightily in the previous three games. Safety Cam Allen, a mainstay in the secondary going back to 2019, did not start against Iowa and corners Cory Trice and Jamari Brown’s snaps were limited coming off injuries. As Chris Jefferson no longer remains on the team, Purdue’s pass defense needs to tighten up quickly. Too often, opposing pass catchers can turn upfield and create explosive plays. This will mark the third straight matchup against a “game manager” type of quarterback, but the last two have done damage against the Boilermaker secondary.

Purdue running game versus Illinois against the run

Purdue welcomed back Dylan Downing to the running back mix after missing a few games with injury but make no mistake: Devin Mockobee remains this team’s top running back. Mockobee only saw 14 carries last week, though he averaged a nice 4.6 yards on those. It was a bit of a surprise that Purdue didn’t run the ball more, given the windy conditions. It’ll be a chilly afternoon in Champaign on Saturday. The Boilermakers will likely be without King Doerue again. Mockobee and Downing will each see carries, but will Tyrone Tracy or Kobe Lewis get involved? Jeff Brohm alluded to some interest in mixing in Austin Burton at times. Will he come in for a play here and there to add a different element to the offense?

Illinois brings one of the nation’s best run defenses to the table, allowing opponents just 79 rushing yards per game and less than three yards per carry. The defensive line takes up space well, allowing linebackers to work downhill and stuff opposing ball carriers. Linemen Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr have combined 22 tackles for loss this season and will look to cause problems for Purdue on Saturday. Purdue will need room to operate on the outsides to gain yardage against this strong defense, but it’ll be a tall task.

Purdue passing game versus Illinois against the pass

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell enters in a bit of a funk, having tossed one touchdown pass to five interceptions over the past two games. The sixth-year senior now leads the Big Ten with 10 interceptions on the season, and they’ve been a significant factor in three of Purdue’s four losses. Part of the conversation lies in the receiving game for Purdue. After Charlie Jones saw 18 targets in the loss to Iowa, it may be time to ask if the Iowa transfer is being targeted too much, but whether other receivers are open is another question. Early in the season, Purdue looked for another receiver to emerge, but it’s not necessarily happened. Regardless, Purdue’s pass-heavy offense needs to operate more efficiently. If Purdue can’t consistently move the chains and find the end zone through the air, it’s in a challenging position. We saw Aidan O’Connell play at his highest level in the cold at the end of last season. Can he do it again in the final quarter of 2022?

The stingy Illini defense also excels against the pass, allowing opponents to throw for just over 150 yards per game. Additionally, the defense swarms to passes, picking off opponents 16 times during the season. The Illini have yet to face an opposing quarterback with the downfield passing ability that O’Connell brings to the table, as it’s unclear whom the best quarterback to face the Illini has been. Avoiding interceptions will be critical, particularly given the strength of the safety position for Illinois. Wisconsin and Iowa may have provided a blueprint to stop the Purdue passing attack, but Jeff Brohm’s offense will be looking to adjust and have a bounce-back day.

Special teams

After last week’s wind game, conditions should look more as expected for the second weekend in November on Saturday. Purdue still needs punter Jack Ansell’s consistency to grow, though kicker Mitchell Fineran got a much-needed make on his only field goal attempt of the game. Brohm mentioned that Ansell had battled an injury at times this season, as Brendan Cropsey took the last punt of the game for Purdue on Saturday. Who will handle the punts on Saturday?

After bidding farewell to star punter Blake Hayes, Illinois’ replacement Hugh Robertson has been up and down in his first season. With just three punts of 50+ yards, he’ll look to be more finesse than power. Two kickers have had opportunities, but neither has necessarily run away as the main guy, giving off 2017 Purdue vibes. The Illini enter just three of six from 40+ yards, but nearly automatic inside 40. To this point, the return game hasn’t been a vital factor for the Illini.

Intangibles

Purdue’s sights were set on Indianapolis, but after back-to-back borderline blowout losses, the tone has changed. Purdue needs positive momentum in the worst way. The Boilermakers’ success against Illinois recently should provide some reason for optimism, but the recent trends aren’t in Purdue’s favor. The program has a track record of bouncing back under Jeff Brohm, but that will be tested on Saturday.

Illinois’ 7-1 start emerged as one of the better stories in college football’s first two months. A surprising loss to Michigan State last week has cooled the momentum slightly, but Bret Bielema’s program looks far better than things have looked in Champaign since Ron Zook. They play with toughness and effort that lines up similarly to the programs Purdue has faced in the last two games. Purdue will need to match or exceed that as road underdogs.