Matchup Preview: Purdue at Oregon State

Purdue at Oregon State, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, September 21, 8:30 E.T.

Location: Reser Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 35,548 (tickets)

2024 schedules/records: Purdue 1-1 (0-0 Big Ten), Oregon State 2-1

Series notes: The return trip of a home-and-home scheduling agreement, Saturday will become just the third meeting between the Boilermakers and Beavers. Oregon State took a 22-14 decision in West Lafayette way back in 1967 in a huge Homecoming upset when the Boilermakers were ranked No. 2 nationally, while Purdue opened the 2021 season with a 30-21 win under the lights in Ross-Ade Stadium. Purdue’s only other game in the state of Oregon came in 2009 when the Boilermakers fell in a heartbreaker in Eugene against Oregon.

TV: The CW (PxP Ted Robinson, Analyst Ryan Leaf, Sidelines Nigel Burton)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Derek Schultz)

Line: Oregon State -5.5, O/U 50

Weather: High 73/low 49, partly cloudy skies

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Oregon State Roster | Oregon State Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Purdue-Oregon State | First and 10: Purdue at Oregon State | Purdue’s Ryan Walters: ‘Fully expect us to respond the right way’ | Number Crunching: Purdue-Oregon State week |
The 3-2-1: How will Purdue respond in wake of historic loss? | Trips to West Coast: Sun, surf, mountains, losses for Purdue | In the Huddle: Jeffrey M’Ba | Opponent View: Oregon State |

Oregon State running game versus Purdue against the run

Oregon State would like to run the ball early and often. The Beavers’ run plays (141) nearly double their pass plays (76) through three games. The tandem of Anthony Hankerson and Jam Griffin will split carries in the backfield, as each back enters Saturday averaging more than 90 yards per game. Those stats may be slightly misleading, however, as each back ran for over 150 yards in the season-opening win over FCS Idaho State.

Purdue will see yet another running quarterback, as it will need to keep an eye on Gevani McCoy. Though he’s only ran the ball nine times on the year, he’s done so at a clip of over six yards per carry. Until Purdue proves it can contain mobile quarterbacks, opponents will look to test the Boilermakers on read plays.

Missed tackles haunted Purdue’s run defense and contributed heavily to the game getting out of hand against the Fighting Irish. Pro Football Focus charged Purdue’s defense with 15 missed tackles, several coming from prominent defensive players. Purdue’s back half of the defense consistently failed to take proper angles and closed out tackles poorly, leading to explosive plays from Notre Dame.

After recording just one tackle for loss on a run play, Purdue will look to create more disruption in the run game. Mobile quarterbacks continue to haunt the Boilermaker defense, though most of Riley Leonard’s damage came from designed runs or option plays. The lateral run game hurt Purdue, too, exposing some lack of speed. Expect Purdue to try and push more of runs to the middle of the defense rather than the perimeter to limit explosive plays.

Oregon State passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Like Purdue’s first two opponents, Oregon State hopes to pass the ball in select situations and keep the ball out of harm’s way. In the win over Idaho State, the Beavers only put the ball in the air 14 times. That number increased to 27 in a win over San Diego State before Oregon State threw 35 times trying to play catch-up against Oregon. McCoy does complete 67% of his passes, averaging 6.67 yards per attempt. He plays it safe, as he’s interception-free, but Oregon State doesn’t want to put the ball in the air more than the game script requires it to.

After catching just five passes last season, Trent Walker leads the Beavers with 20 receptions through three games. Taz Reddicks, a smaller, quicker target, enters Saturday as the only other wide receiver with more than three receptions. The running backs will play a role in the passing game, as Hankerson and Griffin combine for 12 receptions thus far.

Through two games, one-sixth of the season, it’s fair to say that Purdue still needs to face a credible passing attack. Indiana State only attempted ten passes, while Riley Leonard threw just five passes more than five yards downfield. Walters did not rule out a possible return for corner Nyland Green, who’s believed to be Purdue’s top guy at the position. In each game, a few deep shots presented opportunities for the opponent, but overthrows killed each threat. How will Purdue’s coverage hold up if the Beavers attack vertically?

The pass rush entered 2024 with plenty of questions, and it’s fair to say they still persist after two non-threats in the passing game. Will Heldt looks the part of a high-end athlete on the edge, but Shitta Sillah and CJ Madden each will look to break through and grab a hold onto the other starting spot. Can the pass rush put pressure on McCoy?

Purdue running game versus Oregon State against the run

Purdue struggled to get any traction in the run game in the loss to Notre Dame. Even with sack yardage removed, Boilermaker ball carriers averaged just 3.12 yards per touch. After a strong showing in the opener, Purdue now needs to find answers to spark the run game. A bright spot in the loss, Reggie Love did average north of six yards per carry, but it came as a small light in an otherwise dark performance. Purdue will continue splitting reps between Love and Mockobee. How much will it look to run Hudson Card? The Boilermakers can’t afford an injury to their trigger man.

Purdue’s offensive line also struggled to generate a push against a talented Notre Dame defensive front. The unit didn’t dominate Indiana State, so gauging the success level against a similar program like Oregon State will tell about the group’s strength.

Opponents do see success running the ball on Oregon State, averaging north of five yards per carry on the season. Though Oregon did much of the damage, ripping off 240 yards on the ground last week, even FCS Idaho State averaged five yards per carry. Oregon State will deploy different formations on defense, mixing up personnel to what it needs to stop the run. In the first three games, the Beavers only recorded nine tackles for loss and forced only one fumble.

Purdue passing game versus Oregon State against the pass

A familiar ailment struck the Purdue offense in the loss to Notre Dame. The offensive line couldn’t hold off the Irish defense, giving Hudson Card little-to-no time to work with. While Card took four sacks, Pro Football Focus credited Notre Dame with 18 pressures of Card on just 28 dropbacks. Without time to operate, no quarterback can make enough plays. For Purdue to put together the passing game it needs to, the offensive line must provide Card more time to operate.

Downfield, Card’s receivers struggled to gain separation from an elite Notre Dame secondary. When Card did get time to throw, very little opened up downfield. Max Klare continued to show flashes as a tough-to-cover, athletic tight end, and Kam Brown returned to the field as a speedy option. Purdue added taller, bigger receivers in the transfer portal ahead of this season. In games against a more evenly-matched opponent, Purdue hopes the difference begins to show starting on Saturday.

Oregon State’s pass defense suffocated Idaho State and San Diego State before Oregon threw all over it last weekend. What’s the reality for the Beavers in the pass game? Opponents are completing just 59% of passes and threw for four touchdowns to just two interceptions. The sack numbers don’t pop, as the Beavers sit with just three, but Thomas Collins enters with ten pressures on the young season, and Nikko Taylor and Zakaih Saez join him with eight.

Special teams

Two games into the season, Purdue still awaits its first field goal attempt of the season. True freshman Spencer Porath remains perfect on extra points, but he’s yet to attempt a field goal at the collegiate level. Will he step up when the time finally comes?

If a bright spot did exist in the 66-7 loss, it came in the performance of punter Keelan Crimmins. Through two games, the Aussie averages more than 47 yards per punt, including a 64-yard boot that just narrowly fell into the end zone for a touchback. So far, Purdue looks like it upgraded at the punter position.

While Purdue has yet to attempt a field goal in 2024, Oregon State has with unsettling results. Kicker Everett Hayes enters just one-for-four on attempts this season, including one blocked kick. He did not attempt any field goals in 2023, but went just six-for-13 in 2022 and 12-for-18 in 2021.

Punter Josh Green only heard his number called ten times in the first three games, and he put six of those ten punts inside the 20 yard-line. He only averages 40.2 yards per punt, but three of the ten attempts went more than 50 yards.

Purdue’s averages in the kick and punt return categories best Oregon State’s, though most of Purdue’s damage came against FCS Indiana State.

Intangibles

How does Purdue respond after the largest margin of defeat in program history? It’s a harsh reality that Purdue cannot escape, but it must find a way to move on before kickoff on Saturday. Calling a September game a “must-win” situation feels extreme, but with a daunting schedule ahead, Purdue needs as many wins early as it can get. A loss in Reser Stadium makes bowl eligibility a pipe dream. Ryan Walters expects his team to respond the right way. Can it get back on track and enter league play above .500?

Meanwhile, the last 12 months took Beaver fans on a rollercoaster ride. The PAC 12 virtually dissolved, with 10 of the 12 schools leaving Oregon State and Washington State in the dark. Oregon State spent the entirety of the 2023 season ranked in the AP Poll and finished with eight wins. Then, head coach Jonathan Smith and blue-chip quarterback Aidan Chiles took off for East Lansing. While recent developments present a brighter future for the PAC 12 with four additional teams added to the league, it will never return to its former status as a power conference.

Because of that, expect the Beavers to try to make a statement against a Power Four program on Saturday. Reser Stadium doesn’t pack in 100,000 fans, but a strong crowd should back the Beavers in a game it wants to win to bounce back from a lopsided rivalry loss last week.

Both programs will take the field with drastically different rosters from the ones they fielded last season. Which one will win out?