Matchup Preview: Purdue vs. LSU

Purdue vs. LSU – Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

Time: Monday, January 2, 1 p.m.

Location: Camping World Stadium

Surface: AstroTurf

Capacity: 60,219 (tickets)

2022 schedules/records: Purdue 8-5 (6-3 Big Ten), LSU 9-4 (6-2 SEC)

Series Notes: 

The Citrus Bowl will mark the first-ever meeting between the Boilermakers and Tigers, though it will mark the third consecutive bowl game where Purdue will face an SEC opponent. Purdue’s past two bowl games, both in the Music City Bowl, featured matchups with Auburn and Tennessee. Under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers own a 3-2 record against SEC teams. Purdue has appeared in 21 bowl games, holding an 11-9 bowl game record. Purdue played in this game once prior, back in 2004, when it was named the Capital One Bowl. In that game, Purdue fell 34-27 in overtime to Georgia.

TV: ABC

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Pete Quinn, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: LSU -14

Pregame: Gold and Black Radio

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Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

LSU Roster | LSU Game Notes

LSU running game versus Purdue against the run

The Bayou Bengals bring a strong running game to the table, but it’s somewhat unconventional. Quarterback Jayden Daniels leads the team in rushing, averaging over 60 yards per game and running into the end zone 11 times on the season. Outside of Daniels, the Tigers use a combination of three running backs in Josh Williams, Noah Cain and John Emery Jr. While none have stats that jump off the page, each presents a challenge as they combine for more than 100 yards per game. They’ll run several zone-read concepts to try and fully utilize Daniels’ mobility and force Purdue defenders to make mistakes, but Daniels also can tuck it and run when dropping back to pass. LSU will undoubtedly present several different run looks at Purdue and make the Boilers’ defense stop the run.

Through 13 games, Purdue ranks 42nd in the FBS in run defense, allowing 136 yards per game. At times this season, Purdue’s run defense dominated their opponents, particularly in wins at Minnesota and Maryland. Purdue’s depth on the defensive line has greatly helped in this regard, as fresh legs help the line get a strong push. One area where the Purdue defense has struggled at times is against mobile quarterbacks. Syracuse’s Garrett Shrader, Florida Atlantic’s N’Kosi Perry and Indiana’s Dexter Williams posed some problems for the Purdue defense. Will those experiences help Purdue shut down LSU’s multidimensional run game, or will it give Purdue fits?

LSU passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Daniels’ rushing statistics certainly pop, but he’s been an efficient passer and kept the ball moving for this LSU offense. Though he only averages 213 yards per game through the air, he’s completed 68 percent of his passes and put up 16 touchdowns with just three interceptions. LSU only asks a little out of the Arizona State transfer Daniels, but his effectiveness helped lead the Tigers to a shocking SEC West title. He did get banged up in the SEC Championship Game, and former highly touted quarterback Garrett Nussmeier played well in his place. Receiver Malik Nabers brings high-end talent to the table, but the Tigers will be without Kayshon Boutte, their top NFL prospect at receiver, and Jaray Jenkins, who led LSU with six receiving touchdowns. Both decided to opt out of the Citrus Bowl.

Purdue will take the field with a short-handed secondary following Cory Trice’s decision to opt out of the bowl game. After losing its top corner, Purdue will rely on Reese Taylor and Jamari Brown on the outside to slow down NFL-caliber receivers. The defensive backfield has struggled at times this season to prevent explosive pass plays, and they’ll have to be strong defending the deep ball to have a chance. The pass rush came on towards the end of the year, as players like Nic Caraway and Kydran Jenkins made their presence felt. Forcing the ball out of Daniels’ hand will be critical, as the longer he can extend plays, the more likely he is to find a hole in Purdue’s coverage. Purdue will need to force a few turnovers to flip this game in its favor. Can it?

Purdue running game versus LSU against the run

Purdue’s run game will look slightly different with Austin Burton at quarterback rather than Aidan O’Connell. Burton presents much more of a running threat and opens up far more opportunities for designed quarterback runs and option looks. We saw Purdue run some speed option looks with O’Connell late in the season, which should only be more effective with Burton handling the ball. 

What more can be said about Devin Mockobee? After breaking the freshman rushing record at Purdue, new head coach Ryan Walters rewarded Mockobee with a scholarship. He’ll look to put a cap on his tremendous redshirt freshman campaign with a strong bowl performance. He’s taken nearly all of the handoffs for Purdue over Dylan Downing recently, and I’d expect another heavy load for Mockobee against the Tigers. He’s 80 yards away from reaching 1,000 on the season. Purdue’s last 1,000-yard rusher? Kory Sheets in 2008.

LSU’s run defense ranks in the middle of the pack, allowing just over 150 yards per game on the ground. They present a solid defensive front but will be without an opt-out or two on the defensive line. They’ll look to challenge Purdue’s offensive line, which is down its top two players following Gus Hartwig’s season-ending injury vs. Northwestern and Spencer Holstege’s decision to transfer to UCLA. Expect LSU to pressure the interior of Purdue’s offensive line and force the Boilermakers to run the ball on the outside, where LSU has speed, unlike what Purdue’s seen for most of this season. Still, whenever a difficult matchup has presented itself, Mockobee has answered the call.

Purdue passing game versus LSU against the pass

Though Burton gives Purdue a more dangerous run game, there’s a notable drop-off in the passing game from O’Connell. In Burton’s only start of the season against Florida Atlantic, Purdue took a conservative approach to throwing the ball. Purdue averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt in that game, with Burton attempting many short passes and staying out of harm’s way. His challenge will be stiffer against a much more vigorous LSU defense and without his top two pass catchers. Charlie Jones and Payne Durham elected to join O’Connell in opting out of the bowl game, so Purdue will look to others to contribute to the passing game.

What can Michael Alaimo bring to the table? Burton will start at quarterback, but interim head coach Brian Brohm said he expects Alaimo to get some reps. Purdue has added a big name to the 2023 quarterback room in Texas transfer Hudson Card, but Alaimo’s first real playing time will give the Boilermakers an idea of how much of a competition there will be in the spring.

Like Purdue, LSU’s top cornerback also opted out of the bowl game, as Mekhi Garner will not play, nor will one of their better pass rushers BJ Ojulari. Still, opponents only passed for 209 yards per game on the Tigers’ defense this season. They’ve been vulnerable to the deep ball at times, but it’s a question of whether Purdue will be able to exploit that without its top quarterback and receiver. The name to watch on LSU’s defense is true freshman linebacker, Harold Perkins. He burst onto the scene with 13 quarterback hurries, 11.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks this season. He’ll look to put an exclamation point on his freshman season when coming after the passer on Monday.

Special teams

Kicker Mitchell Fineran finished strong with a five-for-five performance on field goals in the Big Ten Championship Game. He remains virtually automatic inside 40 yards, making 14 of 15 attempts on the year. Jack Ansell’s year-over-year improvement has been notable, but the Boilermakers’ return game remains a non-factor. Barring anything unforeseen, Purdue will extend its return touchdown droughts by another year. Purdue’s last kick return touchdown came in 2013 and last punt return touchdown came in 2009.

The Tigers don’t attempt many field goals, kicking 14 times in 13 games, but Damian Ramos has made 10 of those attempts with a long of 47. Outside of an infamous blocked PAT against Florida State, he’s been automatic on extra points. Punter Jay Bramblett has done a fine job this season. They’ve yet to do much in the return game either, as they fair catch the majority of punts and kickoffs.

Intangibles

This area doesn’t exactly favor the Boilermakers, who have experienced quite the rollercoaster in the month of December. The departure of head coach Jeff Brohm to Louisville didn’t come as a surprise, but as many assistants followed him, Purdue will be working with a skeleton crew on January 2. Interim head coach Brian Brohm and defensive coordinator Mark Hagen will be joining the Louisville staff after the bowl game, which will make for an odd dynamic. Additionally, two Purdue starters have departed via the transfer portal in Holstege and Branson Deen. Plus, some of the best players on Purdue’s roster will not play after opting out. These dynamics don’t exactly favor the Boilermakers.

Year one under Brian Kelly went as well as LSU fans could have hoped. Though losses to Florida State and Texas A&M disappointed, no one expected the Tigers to compete in the West division, let alone win it. With a strong 2023 recruiting class in the folds, there’s real momentum in Baton Rouge. LSU can make it a 10-win season with a win over Purdue, and they’ll be motivated to finish the season strong.