Matchup Preview: Purdue vs. Minnesota

Purdue vs. Minnesota, from a matchup perspective.

Time: Saturday, November 11, 3:30 E.T.

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 61,441 (tickets)

2023 schedules/records:  Purdue 2-7 (1-5 Big Ten), Minnesota 5-4 (3-3 Big Ten)

Series Notes: The Big Ten West foes will meet for the 79th time on Saturday as Minnesota leads the all-time series 41-34-3. However, history does side with the Boilermakers inside Ross-Ade Stadium, where Purdue holds a 21-8 advantage. When Jeff Brohm and PJ Fleck squared off, Purdue and Minnesota enjoyed a miniature rivalry. The two were both hired at the same time, and Fleck came away victorious in four of their six meetings. Purdue took down a top-25 Minnesota team in Minneapolis last season thanks to a couple of big interceptions from Cam Allen and a long run from Devin Mockobee.

TV: NBC (PxP Jac Collinsworth, Analyst Jason Garrett, Sidelines Zora Stephenson)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Pete Quinn, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Minnesota -1. O/U 46.5

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Minnesota Roster | Minnesota Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Minnesota | First and 10: Minnesota | Bowl hopes dashed, Purdue still has plenty to play for down stretch | Purdue TE Garrett Miller still seeks groove following 2022 knee injury | acrepro.com Purdue Football Buy/Sell: Week 11 | The 3-2-1 |

Minnesota running game versus Purdue against the run

Minnesota loves to run the ball, opting to carry the ball 374 times to just 207 pass attempts through nine games. The Gophers’ backfield has dealt with a rash of injuries, though. Top back Darius Taylor has played in just one game since September with an injury, which has recently elevated Jordan Nubin to the top tailback spot. Nubin and Sean Tyler lead the way in the backfield, but Taylor will rejoin them if he can play on Saturday. No matter who the running back is though, the Gophers don’t have the same type of bell cow they had last year in Mohamed Ibrahim. Minnesota runs for four yards per carry and 165 yards per game.

Athan Kaliakmanis will run the ball on Saturday, something Purdue must keep at the top of its mind. The Boilermakers’ struggles at stopping the quarterback run are well-documented, having struggled against multiple dual-threat quarterbacks earlier this year. Kaliakmanis runs the ball a handful of times per game.

After holding Michigan’s dangerous rushing attack largely in check, the Boilermakers sit in 11th place in the conference as a rush defense. Yanni Karlaftis played every snap, assuming the role of Purdue’s top run-stopping linebacker in the absence of OC Brothers. Purdue continuously rotates on the defensive line, helping keep the unit fresh throughout the game. The Boilermakers stop the traditional between-the-tackles run fairly well, but it remains vulnerable to runs to the outside and quarterback scrambles. How well Purdue can shore up those issues could decide the game.

Minnesota passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Kaliakmanis has consistently struggled to throw the ball this year despite bringing a dual-threat aspect to the position. He’s averaging just 143 passing yards per game and completes a mere 54% of his passes. He flashed potential during his stint as the starter in 2022, but he’s yet to string consistent play together. Senior wide receiver Daniel Jackson leads the way on the outside with 38 receptions, seven of which resulted in Gopher touchdowns. Veteran tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford provides another target along with Western Michigan transfer Corey Crooms. The Gophers’ longest completion of the season? Just a gain of 39. The Gophers’ offense lacks explosiveness, which fits right in among their Big Ten West peers.

Purdue’s pass rush continues to impress. Through nine games, Nic Scourton and Kydran Jenkins each have seven sacks, the most in the Big Ten. Purdue will again count on the duo to get pressure on Kaliakmanis and force him into early decisions with the football. The Boilermakers remain very young on the back end, starting true freshman Derrick Rogers Jr and JUCO transfer Botros Alisandro at corner last week. Purdue’s pass defense ranks last in the Big Ten, allowing 238 yards per game to opposing passers. However, the “Air Strike” defense would like to create more turnovers, as they’ve picked off just six passes through nine games.

Purdue running game versus Minnesota against the run

Just when it looked like Devin Mockobee coughed up his eighth fumble of the season, the booth review saved him, noting that he was down before the ball came out. Nonetheless, Purdue will continue to roll with the combination of Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy at running back. The two combine for over 110 rushing yards per game with nine touchdowns between them. Purdue can still use Dylan Downing, but he did not see any carries last week in Ann Arbor. The rushing offense appears primed for its best season since 2018, currently averaging 132 yards per game. While Hudson Card ran the ball a few times on Saturday, he picks and choses his times to run carefully.

The Gopher run defense has been stout, allowing fewer than four yards per carry and 113 yards per game. Maverick Baranowski leads the run defense from the middle linebacker spot, filling in gaps to stuff runs before they can get to the next level. Fleck’s teams have been known for their strong defenses in recent years, and they needed a large transfer portal class to get this year’s defense to that level. Minnesota has forced nine fumbles on the year, and they’ll undoubtedly go for the ball when Mockobee carries on Saturday.

Purdue passing game versus Minnesota against the pass

The loss at Michigan marked the third consecutive game where Hudson Card threw for fewer than 150 yards, bringing his game average down to 206 yards per game. There’s no single reason for Purdue’s offensive woes. The passing game is hampered by limited athleticism at wide receiver and a critical lack of depth on the offensive line. Purdue now starts two backups at offensive tackle and has to rotate uncomfortably to get through games. After Rondale Moore, David Bell and Charlie Jones passed through the program consecutively, Purdue lacks that type of dynamic wide receiver to change the game. And, with just nine touchdowns to eight interceptions, Boilermaker fans had higher hopes for the former blue chip recruit Card.

While the Gophers’ run defense holds strong, they’re vulnerable on the back end. Opponents average over seven yards per pass attempt on the Minnesota defense, which ranks 11th in the league against the pass. Purdue must be aware of Tyler Nubin’s location, as the veteran safety stands out among the nation’s best. He’s picked off four passes this year, tied for second-most in the conference. Additionally, DB Justin Walley leads the team with eight pass breakups and will The Gopher pass rush sits around the middle of the pack and doesn’t generate a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Special teams

The Boilermakers made a field goal for the first time in over a month, as kicker Ben Freehill connected twice on a pair of short kicks in Ann Arbor. Still, Purdue is just 5-for-12 on field goal attempts this season. Between that and a below-average punting game, special teams have not been easy for the Boilermakers since Tyrone Tracy’s kickoff return touchdown in the season opener.

Minnesota kicker Dragan Keisch has drilled 18 of his 21 field goal attempts, including two of 50+ yards. The 18 made field goals lead the Big Ten, while veteran punter Mark Crawford brings consistency to his spot. Most of Minnesota’s kickoffs result in touchbacks, which should limit Purdue’s ability to return kicks in Saturday’s contest. Conversely, Minnesota’s return game has yet to do much in 2023.

Intangibles

After a long five-week stretch, Purdue now closes the season with three straight “winnable” games. At 2-7, this season has not gone the way Ryan Walters had hoped for, but a strong finish could ease the sting ahead of a critical offseason. Ross-Ade Stadium could sell out for Saturday’s contest, as less than 2,000 tickets remained as of last week, so the Boilermakers will have support behind them.

The question for Purdue now lies in how the team performs with no bowl hopes to play for anymore. At 2-7, a bowl game is out of the picture. How much will the focus start to turn to the 2024 season?

In a wide-open Big Ten West, the Gophers sit just one game off the lead, but closing with Ohio State and Wisconsin makes a divisional title unlikely. Still, the five-win Gophers can clinch bowl eligibility with a win on Saturday. Fleck holds a 4-2 advantage over Purdue and won his last two trips to West Lafayette.