Matchup Preview: Purdue vs. Northwestern

Northwestern at Purdue

Saturday, November 12, 12:00 p.m., Ross-Ade Stadium

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 57,282 (tickets (less than 3,000) available)

2022 schedules/records: Northwestern 1-9 (1-6 Big Ten), Purdue 6-4 (4-3 Big Ten)

Series Notes: These two charter members of the Big Ten will meet for the 87th time on the gridiron this weekend, with Purdue looking to add to their 52-33-1 all-time advantage in the series. Despite the Boilermakers’ all-time advantage, it’s Northwestern who’s won eight of the last 11 in this series going back to 2008. From 2008 to 2018, Purdue won just one time against the Wildcats. Purdue snapped that drought when Aidan O’Connell won his first career start at Northwestern in 2019. Last season, the series saw a new wrinkle when Purdue took on Northwestern at Wrigley Field, with the Boilermakers pulling away in the second half to win 32-14.

TV: FS1

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Pete Quinn, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Purdue -18

Pregame: Gold and Black Radio

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Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Northwestern Roster | Northwestern Game Notes

Northwestern running game versus Purdue against the run

Though the Northwestern offensive struggles are well-documented, the run game is the unquestioned strength of this group. Evan Hull carries the bulk of the load for the second straight year for the Wildcats, averaging 75 yards per game on the ground. He doesn’t bring top-end speed to the table but fights for every yard. Cam Porter, the number two back, led the team in rushing in 2020 before missing all of the 2021 season with an injury. His production has fluctuated throughout this season, but he’s to be taken seriously when he’s in the game. Northwestern’s quarterback situation is largely unknown for Saturday due to injuries. Brendan Sullivan presents a mobile threat, while Ryan Hilinski doesn’t leave the pocket much. Yes, Northwestern only averages 118 rushing yards per game, but they often find themselves in passing situations due to a deficit on the scoreboard.

Purdue’s run defense lapsed against Wisconsin and Iowa, but it’s been pretty good this season. They found their mojo again when they limited Illinois star back Chase Brown to a season-low 98 yards in the upset victory last Saturday, forcing the Illini out of their run-heavy game plan. Purdue will look to take that same approach against the Northwestern offense, which wants to run the ball early and often. Should Sullivan start for Northwestern, Purdue will need to contain the quarterback run element, something they struggled with in non-conference play but hasn’t seen much of recently. The Boilermakers will need to stop the run without two key linebackers. Kieren Douglas and Clyde Washington left the Illinois game with an injury, and Jeff Brohm didn’t project either player to suit up on Saturday. OC Brothers and Jacob Wahlberg will see more action, and Semisi Fakasiieki, Ben Kreul and Yanni Karlaftis will likely have their helmets on if needed.

Northwestern passing game versus Purdue against the pass

When Ryan Hilinski sliced and diced the Nebraska defense in the season opener, it looked like the veteran had taken a big step forward. It didn’t last long, though, as Hilinski was benched in favor of redshirt freshman Brendan Sullivan in early October. A highly regarded recruit, Sullivan has repeatedly shown flashes this season, but the Northwestern offense hasn’t taken off. In last week’s 31-3 loss to Minnesota, Sullivan suffered an injury early on, and Hilinski needed to be carted off the field in the second half. As of publishing, it’s unclear whom the Wildcats will trot out onto the field on Saturday to start against the Boilermakers.

Veteran receiver Malik Washington stands out as the Wildcats’ top target at receiver, leading the team with 55 receptions. The senior is fresh off a 97-yard performance against Minnesota and will be the Boilermaker secondary’s utmost concern. Out of the backfield, Hull ranks second on the roster with 50 receptions. Purdue will need to monitor him on every snap. Outside of those two, it’s largely a rank-and-file group of receivers in purple.

Purdue’s defensive backfield’s struggles of late are no secret, but they stepped up when needed to help defeat the Illini a week ago. The issue has been breakdowns resulting in wide-open opposing receivers. While Illinois had a few significant opportunities, it was a step forward for Purdue. Cam Allen returned to the starting lineup at safety with Bryce Hampton factoring in, while Cory Trice and Reese Taylor started at corner with Jamari Brown helping out. Purdue’s defensive front managed to get some pressure on Tommy DeVito, which hasn’t always been consistent this season. Northwestern’s All-American left tackle will present issues, but Purdue will look to get home from the right side. The Purdue defensive backs haven’t picked off a pass since the Nebraska game. With questions all over the field for Northwestern, can they make a big play on Saturday?

Purdue running game versus Northwestern against the run

For the fourth time in his redshirt freshman campaign, Devin Mockobee broke the 100-yard mark last weekend. He now sits at 732 yards on the season. With two regular-season games and a bowl left, the chance for Purdue’s first 1000-yard season since Kory Sheets in 2008 appears very realistic. Mockobee saw 28 carries, while Dylan Downing and Kobe Lewis each were limited to just one carry. It’s clear as day who Purdue’s top back is, and they’ll continue to feed Mockobee early and often on Saturday. It’s hard to say enough good things about the Boonville, Ind. product. His effort jumpstarted Purdue’s first scoring drive in Champaign, fighting for extra yardage and punching it in the end zone. Without him, where would this offense be? While Aidan O’Connell’s 33 rushing yards are unlikely to be duplicated, could he tuck it and run if the Northwestern defense gives him a chance?

The Northwestern run defense has struggled to put up much of a fight this season, as they rank 119th out of 131 FBS teams in rushing defense, allowing opponents to carry the ball for just shy of 200 yards per game. Their defensive line struggles to get much push, relying heavily on linebackers Bryce Gallagher and Xander Mueller to make plays in the run game. No doubt, the Northwestern defense has seen some excellent running backs line up across from them this season, but the numbers don’t lie. Just last week, Minnesota ran for over 300 yards on the Wildcats. With such an advantage on the ground, the Gophers ran 58 times to just 13 passes. With expected frigid conditions, Purdue may run the ball heavily against this vulnerable Northwestern defense.

Purdue passing game versus Northwestern against the pass

After two tough days against Iowa and Wisconsin, Aidan O’Connell bounced back with a solid performance against Illinois. Despite an early interception, O’Connell delivered three touchdown passes and made big-time throws to help Purdue pull away. He played at a very high level down the stretch of the 2021 season, putting a big game together against Northwestern at Wrigley Field. He’s forced the ball into some tight windows at times this season, which have resulted in a league-leading 11 interceptions, but they’ve also helped score touchdowns like Payne Durham’s leap in the third quarter at Illinois. In No. 16’s final game at Ross-Ade, he’ll look to go out on a high note.

Finding a true number two receiver didn’t materialize the way Purdue hoped this season, but Purdue may not have won in Champaign without TJ Sheffield. His big catch on a 4th and 7 play to move the chains and lead to Purdue’s field goal to take a late 10-point lead may have been the game’s biggest play. His big game came at a good time, as Charlie Jones saw a season-low six targets as he faced tight coverage from Illinois’ top corner. After a big day in Campaign, there’s no doubt Payne Durham wants to build on that in his final game at home.

Northwestern limits opponents to under 200 passing yards per game, but that number requires proper context. The Wildcats’ struggles have often led to opponents building early leads where they can simply keep the ball on the ground and run out the clock, so opponents haven’t tried to air it out much. Northwestern will look to limit Purdue on the outside after getting burnt deep by Milton Wright multiple times at the Friendly Confines a season ago. Adetomiwa Adebawore must be accounted for on the edge, as he’s sacked opposing quarterbacks four times on the season. It’s not a defense filled with ballhawks, intercepting just five passes to this point. If Purdue can keep O’Connell clean in the pocket, as they did a week ago, he’ll have the chance to pick apart the Northwestern secondary.

Special teams

Kicker Mitchell Fineran came through when it mattered most, drilling his 25-yard attempt into the wind to put Purdue up two scores late in the game last week. He did, however, miss his 44-yard attempt in the first quarter, dropping his season total to just two-for-six from 40-plus yards. Inside of 40, the senior has made nine of his 10 tries. With low temperatures in the forecast, don’t expect Purdue to send him out for anything long.

As another season winds down, the drought since Purdue’s last return touchdown will likely last another year. Purdue’s last kick return house call came in 2013, but the return game largely has been a non-factor this season. Charlie Jones initially looked to be the difference-maker, but he only handles punts now, given his importance to the offense. Can Deion Burks break one off?

Like Purdue, Northwestern doesn’t project as a threat to hit deep field goals. Kicker Adam Stage enters at five-for-seven on the season, but his longest make came from a mere 35 yards, and he’s just three-of-five from 30-plus. Just eight of Stage’s 33 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks, so maybe Purdue will get a chance to make a big play.

On the flip side, the Wildcats haven’t shown any explosiveness in the return game. Hull handles the bulk of their kickoff returns, but they’ve only tried to return eight to this point, and Donny Navarro III’s six punt returns essentially went nowhere.

Intangibles

Jeff Brohm doesn’t like to talk about it, but he and his squad know the possibilities that lie ahead. If Purdue can defeat Northwestern and Indiana, they need an Iowa loss to capture the Big Ten West and go to Indianapolis. However, a Hawkeye loss becomes irrelevant to Purdue if the Boilermakers don’t take care of business as a favorite of more than two touchdowns.

Cold and breezy conditions didn’t stop Purdue last weekend, whose struggles in inclement weather are no secret. Temperatures will struggle to reach the 30-degree mark on Saturday, and there figures to be some wind, though nothing like what Ross-Ade Stadium saw when Purdue hosted Iowa. It doesn’t create ideal conditions for throwing the ball, but Purdue must find a way to overcome the cold.

The optimism that came with Northwestern’s season-opening win over Nebraska quickly subsided. The Wildcats now enter as losers of nine straight and have won just four of their past 22 games. Pat Fitzgerald has his work cut out for him in Evanston moving forward, but he’ll look to keep this roster motivated with two games remaining. How much will the visiting Wildcats want to be in West Lafayette in the bitter cold?