Matchup Preview: Who has the edge?

Purdue at Wisconsin, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, October 5, Noon E.T.

Location: Camp Randall Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 76,057 (tickets)

2024 schedules/records: Purdue 1-3 (0-1 Big Ten), Wisconsin 2-2 (0-1 Big Ten)

Series notes: Wisconsin leads the all-time series 53-29-8 thanks to a 17-game winning streak in the series. Purdue last defeated the Badgers 26-23 on a walk-off field goal in 2003. Since then, Purdue has lost every meeting with Wisconsin by an average margin of 19.88 points. Luke Fickell and Ryan Walters will meet for the second time, as each coach needs to spark improvement in year two. Fickell defeated Walters 38-17 on a Friday night in Ross-Ade Stadium a season ago.

TV: BTN (PxP Mark Followill, Analyst Jake Butt, Sidelines Brooke Fletcher)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Wisconsin -14, O/U 46

Weather: A high of 79 degrees with partly cloudy skies, winds of 15-25 MPH

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Wisconsin Roster | Wisconsin Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Wisconsin | First and 10: Purdue at Wisconsin | Purdue’s Ryan Walters has confidence, trust in new OC Jason Simmons | The 3-2-1: New offensive coordinator, new results? | Number Crunching–Purdue-Wisconsin week | Gold and Black Radio: Purdue looks ahead to Wisconsin | Losing streak to Wisconsin older than many Purdue players | In the Huddle: Offensive lineman DJ Wingfield | Purdue OC Jason Simmons: ‘It’s amazing how popular you become when something like this happens’ | Acrepro.com Wednesday Night LIVE: Purdue football chat |

Wisconsin running game versus Purdue against the run

Though Wisconsin hired an air-raid disciple as offensive coordinator in Phil Longo, it still likes to run the football. In the first four games, the Badgers average just shy of 40 rushing attempts per game. Despite the focus on the running game, it doesn’t pack the same punch as some previous Wisconsin rushing attacks.

Veteran tailback Chez Mellusi, who suffered a gruesome injury in Ross-Ade Stadium last season, leads the Badger rushing attack, but he’s not alone. Cade Yacamelli averages north of seven yards per carry on limited snaps, and Tawee Walker received double-digit carries in three games. Quarterback Braedyn Locke, who began the season as the backup, does not pose a running threat.

Purdue’s much-maligned rush defense improved after allowing over 300 yards to both Notre Dame and Oregon State, but Nebraska still saw success on the ground. The most concerning statistic? Nebraska’s leading rusher was a wide receiver who averaged over 16 yards per carry on jet sweep actions. This continues to plague the Boilermaker defense, which struggles to contain the edges. Wisconsin wide receivers have not recorded a rushing attempt on the season, but that may change given Purdue’s struggles to contain.

A critical status to monitor: the health of Kydran Jenkins. He split time between linebacker and rush end in the Nebraska game before leaving late with a shoulder injury. The Boilermakers will need all hands on deck as they look to snap the 17-game losing streak to the Badgers.

Wisconsin passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Wisconsin lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a season-ending injury in the week three loss to Alabama. Locke, who started three games in 2023, now takes the snaps for the red and white. He’s seen a mixed bag of results, leading the team to a comeback win over Illinois last season but completing just 50% of his passes for his career. He completed half of his attempts for 180 yards with a touchdown and an interception in his only start of the season at Southern Cal last week.

In his second season in Madison after transferring from Cincinnati, Will Pauling leads the way for the Badger receiving corps. He led the team in receptions and receiving yards in 2023 and does the same through four games this season, including a nine-catch, 83-yard performance against now-No. 1 Alabama. Bryson Green joins Pauling as the only other Wisconsin wideout with double-digit receptions, and the team is still looking to improve its pass game. On the bright side, the pass protection does keep Locke upright with just five sacks allowed through four games.

When it faced Nebraska, Purdue faced an opponent who wanted to throw the football for the first time. The secondary entered the game largely untested, but it did get cornerback Nyland Green on the field for the first time of the season. Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola turned in a nice performance, completing over 60% of passes for 257 yards and a touchdown. Purdue generated just one sack and extended its turnover drought. Entering this week, Purdue is the only team in the FBS yet to force a turnover.

Last week, we saw a personnel switch up, as Dillon Thieneman played closer to the ball while Joseph Jefferson played the deep safety role. This move came as a result of Antonio Stevens’ absence. The move gave Purdue a different look, and the Boilermakers turned to more zone coverage with mixed results. While Jenkins’ move back to rush end didn’t produce immediate results, his status will play a critical role heading into game day.

Purdue running game versus Wisconsin against the run

After a huge day at Oregon State, the Purdue rushing game returned to reality against Nebraska. Even with sack yardage removed, the Boilermakers failed to reach the 100-yard mark on the ground and averaged a mere 3.3 yards per carry. Purdue struggled to create explosive runs, as only four attempts went for ten or more yards.

On the season, Devin Mockobee and Reggie Love III each average north of five yards per carry, and the team averages 149 yards per game on the ground. But, against Notre Dame and Nebraska, the better opponents Purdue has played, the ground game struggled to get going. An up-and-down offensive line doesn’t help matters, but Purdue must find a way to move forward on the ground consistently. And an explosive run here and there wouldn’t hurt. Will the run game see any tweaks with a new play-caller?

The traditional stout Wisconsin defense looks less dominant early on in 2024, but playing Alabama does skew the numbers a bit. Still, opponents average 146 yards per game on the ground at four-and-a-half yards per attempt. Wisconsin averages just for tackles for loss per game, limiting disruption in the opposing backfield. Safety Hunter Wohler will cause disruption in both the run and pass game, leading the team with 24 tackles. Purdue will need to create space against a sizable defensive line, but if it can, the Wisconsin run defense can be penetrated.

Purdue passing game versus Wisconsin against the pass

Perhaps no area of the game disappointed more than the passing game in recent weeks. After a dazzling showing against Indiana State, the Boilermakers average a putrid 118 passing yards per game since. Purdue misses Jahmal Edrine, CJ Smith and George Burhenn as possible targets, but the lack of passing production contributed heavily to Graham Harrell’s dismissal.

Despite minimal production, Pro Football Focus metrics continue to rate Hudson Card at a high level. A porous offensive line and lack of difference-makers at wide receiver play critical roles in the passing game’s woes. Max Klare continues to shine as an athletic pass-catching tight end and tough matchup, but Purdue needs more weapons to join him. Can Jaron Tibbs build off a strong showing? Will we see more of Leland Smith after another athletic touchdown catch? This area needs a spark. Badly.

After smothering the Western Michigan and South Dakota pass games, Alabama and Southern Cal saw plenty of success passing on the Wisconsin defense. The Crimson Tide averaged more than ten yards per attempt, while USC’s Miller Moss eclipsed the 300-yard mark last week. The pass rush generated just seven sacks of opposing quarterbacks in four games. This lack of pressure contributes to the defense picking off just two passes, but it has broken up 12. Card will need to monitor the safety tandem of Wohler and Preston Zachman, who cause disruption over the middle.

Special teams

Spencer Porath made his first career field goal on Saturday when he knocked one through from 45 yards out. He did miss a 39-yarder, but seeing one go through certainly eased the freshman’s nerves. Punter Keelan Crimmins continues to impress after transferring in from Mississippi State, but the return game has not been a factor since the opener.

Wisconsin kicker Nathaniel Vakos, a proven second-year starter, enters with a pair of misses on the year, but he’s also made two from 50+ yards out. In 17 games as a Badger, he’s 20-for-26 with a long of 53. Punter Atticus Bertrams placed seven of his 16 punts inside the 20 with six punts of more than 50 yards. Should the Badgers elect to return kickoffs, Vinny Anthony must be monitored with a 74-yard return on his resume.

Intangibles

Even more adversity hit the Purdue locker room on Sunday when Walters elected to move on from Harrell. After a 49-point outburst against FCS Indiana State, the Boilermakers mustered just 38 points in the next three contests. Analyst Jason Simmons, a long-time Indiana high school coach, will take over offensive play-calling duties. Mid-season changes can sometimes provide a bump in performance in the first game or two, and Purdue will hope for that to prove true on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Fickell era started differently than Badger fans hoped. A lackluster 7-6 record failed to meet expectations in year one, and Wisconsin doesn’t look like the classic Wisconsin in year two. The offense doesn’t feature the typical dominant ground game, and the passing game remains a non-factor despite Phil Longo’s air-raid background. After consecutive losses, Wisconsin needs to put forth a strong showing in front of its home crowd.

Of course, the streak bears mentioning once more. Purdue players undoubtedly know about the 17-game losing streak against the Badgers. Many players weren’t even born the last time Purdue bested Wisconsin in 2003. Can Purdue pull off a stunner and jump around in Madison’s away locker room?