Matchup Preview: Who has the edge?

Purdue at Illinois, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, October 12, 3:30 p.m. E.T.

Location: Memorial Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 60,670 (tickets)

2024 schedules/records: Purdue 1-4 (0-2 Big Ten), Illinois 4-1 (1-1 Big Ten)

Series notes: The Purdue Cannon will be up for grabs on Saturday as Purdue hopes to maintain possession for the fifth straight year. The recent series history strongly favors the Boilermakers, who hold a 15-4 edge in the series dating back to 2003. In the successful run, the all-time series flipped to favor Purdue, which now leads 48-45-6. The last Purdue loss in Champaign came in 2010, as Purdue took the ride back on I-74 with the Cannon in its possession each of the last six times.

TV: FS1 (PxP Eric Collins, Analyst Spencer Tillman)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Illinois -23, O/U 48.5

Weather: Early forecast shows a high of 85 degrees with significant breeze

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Illinois Roster | Illinois Game Notes

Illinois running game versus Purdue against the run

When Illinois won eight games in 2022, it did so on the back of a powerful rushing attack. While the Fighting Illini look destined for a strong record in 2024, they’re doing so without that same rushing strength. Illinois ranks 14th in the conference, averaging just 132 rushing yards per game. Though sack yards skew the numbers slightly, Illini ballcarriers average less than four yards per carry.

Illinois spreads carries throughout the running back room. Kaden Feagin takes the lead, averaging a team-best 61 yards per game on roughly 13 carries, and he’s found the end zone three times. Veteran Josh McCray will see touches, as will youngsters Ca’Lil Valentine and Aidan Laugery, both of whom average north of five yards per carry. Purdue will need to keep an eye on quarterback Luke Altmyer, too, who can improvise and extend plays with his legs.

Purdue’s run defense continues to struggle, allowing a whopping 239 yards per game on the ground. The Boilermakers rank 131st out of the 133 FBS teams in run defense, and that statistic gets a boost from the performance against Indiana State. Without the performance against an FCS foe? Purdue’s allowing north of 270 yards on the ground against FBS competition. Opponents average 5.5 yards per carry, and Purdue continues to struggle to stop runs on the edges. Jet sweeps and off tackles continue to haunt the Purdue defense, which doesn’t force opponents into second-and-third-and-long situations. The absence of Mo Omonode didn’t help Purdue last week, nor did the injury of Jeffrey M’ba in the second half. Both statuses will need monitoring ahead of this weekend.

Illinois passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Through five games, Illinois couldn’t ask for a better start from Altmyer. The veteran Ole Miss transfer is completing 70% of his passes for 209 yards per game with 11 touchdowns to just one interception. He plays a heady style of quarterback, not putting the ball in danger and taking what the defense gives him. At over eight yards per attempt, he’s efficiently moving the ball downfield for the Fighting Illini.

Altmyer works with two high-level receivers in Illinois veteran Pat Bryant and transfer addition Zakhari Franklin. Bryant, who led the team with seven touchdown catches last season, looks primed to shatter his previous bests at Illinois. He’s averaging nearly 70 receiving yards per game and has reached the end zone 15 times in the blue and orange. Meanwhile, Franklin made a name for himself wearing the blue and orange of UTSA, where he earned first-team All-Conference USA honors twice. He played in just four games at Ole Miss a season ago before transferring to Illinois, where he’s made an immediate impact. The combination of Bryant and Franklin through five games: 47 catches for 634 yards. The next leading receiver after those two? Just eight catches on the year.

Purdue’s first three opponents didn’t challenge the secondary much, but Nebraska and Wisconsin threw the ball against the Boilermakers. After Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola turned in a nice performance, Wisconsin’s Braedyn Locke enjoyed a career day. A career 50% passer, Locke threw for 359 yards on Purdue, finding holes in zone defense and attacking Purdue’s weaknesses in man-to-man coverage.

The lack of a pass rush adds to the struggles, as the Boilermakers sit with just nine sacks through five games. Purdue’s secondary often breaks down without pressure on the passer, allowing big plays for opponents. The Boilermakers recently turned to more zone coverage, but it’s not delivered positive results. In Madison, the Badgers scored on 52-yard and 69-yard touchdown strikes. At least one came against Purdue’s zone coverage. The departure of Markevious Brown from the team adds a void to overcome on the back end, but Purdue did finally force a turnover last week when Kyndrich Breedlove picked off a pair of passes.

Purdue running game versus Illinois against the run

Give Devin Mockobee credit. The veteran tailback never slows down, and he continues to battle despite the team’s struggles. He leads the Boilermakers, averaging 72 yards per game, and recently crossed the 2,000 career yard mark. In Jason Simmons’ debut as the offensive play-caller, Mockobee saw significantly more action than Reggie Love III, but the two continue to form a formidable duo in the backfield.

Simmons threw some wrinkles into the game plan, too. Elijah Jackson received a carry on a jet sweep while Jaheim Merriweather saw action. At times, Purdue brought in extra offensive linemen, and it used Ben Furtney as a lead blocker in the backfield. While the results were mixed, Purdue showed a willingness to give anything a chance to spark the struggling offense. Since a 49-point outburst in the season-opener, the offense has mustered a paltry 44 total points—just 11 per game.

Even though Illinois has played only five games, the results from the run defense vary widely. The Illini held Nebraska to just 48 yards on 33 carries, but Penn State ran for 239 yards and three scores. While Illinois predictably overwhelmed Eastern Illinois’ rushing attack, Kansas nearly reached the 200-yard mark. With two weeks to prepare for the Purdue run game, Illinois should know what to expect. Plus, it’s awfully familiar with Love, who played four seasons in Champaign, and it’s seen Mockobee twice before. Illinois can be vulnerable to the quarterback run, but Purdue doesn’t look to move Card much.

Purdue passing game versus Illinois against the pass

Even with the return of presumed top wideout Jahmal Edrine, Purdue found little success in the passing game at Wisconsin. Purdue’s moribund passing game ranks 122th in the FBS with just 161 yards per game, significantly bolstered by the 335 yards against the Sycamores. The offensive line frequently allows pressure on Hudson Card, who’s been sacked 14 times in five games. When it does provide time for Card to look downfield, a lack of separation limits Purdue’s ability to push the ball downfield.

Simmons worked to activate Purdue’s short passing game, but when it fell behind the sticks into long-yardage situations, Purdue couldn’t get much going. Card completed just one pass that went ten or more yards downfield against Wisconsin, desperately limiting the offense’s big-play potential. While Purdue wants to play a ball-control style of offense, it’s seemingly incapable of sustaining long scoring drives. When Purdue did reach the red zone, the field’s condensation left Purdue unable to reach the end zone. The Boilermakers must capitalize and turn scoring chances into six instead of three.

Illinois’ pass defense looks formidable early on, holding opponents to 177 yards per game through the air. It will operate a similar scheme to what Purdue runs, as defensive coordinator Aaron Henry worked with Ryan Walters in Champaign. Illinois’ secondary enters this week tied for third in the conference with seven interceptions, and the pass rush sits middle of the pack with 13 sacks. Outside linebacker Gabe Jacas will draw NFL attention, as he leads the team with three sacks. Though unrelated, Miles Scott and Xavier Scott combine for five interceptions on the young season in the secondary.

Special teams

Purdue kicker Spencer Porath drilled a pair of chip shots from inside the ten-yard line, and he’s now made three consecutive kicks after missing his first try as a Boilermaker. In a bit of a backhanded compliment, perhaps no transfer’s impact feels as strong as that of Keelan Crimmins. The Aussie punter brought desperately needed consistency to a position that had searched for it since Joe Schopper left campus in 2018.

The head-scratcher? Dillon Thieneman’s costly muffed punt led to Wisconsin’s first score. He recovered the first fumbled punt, but the sun impacted his ability to field the ball in the first quarter. Largely, the Purdue return game doesn’t move the needle much.

Illinois sophomore kicker David Olano didn’t kick field goals as a freshman, but he’s made seven of nine, including one from 50 yards away, to start his time as the placekicker. Australian import Hugh Robertson, a three-year starting punter, has placed 11 of his 17 punts inside the 20-yard line with just two touchbacks. While Illini returners only have attempted to run out four kickoffs, they’ve recorded punt returns of 30 and 37 yards this season.

Intangibles

Over the past 20 years, Purdue has owned the series with the I-74 rival Fighting Illini. 15 of the last 19 meetings resulted in the Cannon belonging to Purdue, but this matchup projects much differently. Illinois enters as a nearly three-touchdown favorite, and questions about the future in West Lafayette continue to mount. The locker room can’t be oblivious to the conversations outside the building. Can Purdue maintain focus despite the tumult from the fan base?

Meanwhile, Illinois is bouncing back nicely from an underwhelming 2023 season. Fresh off a bye week, Illinois sits with a 4-1 record, including wins over Kansas and Nebraska. Vibes undoubtedly favor the Illini, who expect a solid crowd to support them on Saturday. History points to Purdue, but everything else points to a comfortable win for the home team.

Of course, the two coaching staffs familiarity with one another bears mentioning. The back-and-forth quibs between Walters and Bielema on social media drew attention a season ago, but Walters hasn’t shied away from commenting on his former employer. Notably, he made references to lack of fan support at Illinois. After Walters downed Bielema in year one, Illinois will look to flip the script in the second meeting.