Matchup Preview: Who has the edge?

Purdue vs. Northwestern, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, November 2, 12:00 p.m. E.T.

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 61,441 (sold out)

2024 schedules/records: Purdue 1-6 (0-4 Big Ten), Northwestern 3-5 (1-4 Big Ten)

Series notes: The longtime Big Ten rivals will meet for the 89th time, as Purdue enters with a 53-34-1 advantage. Purdue and Northwestern met each of the last ten years as members of the Big Ten West, and the Wildcats took seven of those contests. Ryan Walters and David Braun squared off a year ago in Evanston, where Northwestern held on for a 23-15 win against a Purdue offense primarily led by Ryan Browne. The last time Northwestern came to Ross-Ade Stadium, Purdue won a 17-9 defensive battle with wind chills in the single digits in one of the coldest games in stadium history.

TV: BTN (PxP Jason Ross Jr., Analyst Anthony Herron, Sidelines Dannie Rogers)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Northwestern -1, O/U 46.5

Weather: High of 64 with breeze

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Northwestern Roster | Northwestern Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Northwestern | First and 10: Northwestern at Purdue | Purdue’s plan at QB? Play Hudson Card and Ryan Browne vs. Northwestern | The 3-2-1: November will go long way to define Ryan Walters’ Purdue tenure | Opponent View: Northwestern | Gold and Black Radio: Purdue prepares for Northwestern | Number Crunching: Purdue-Northwestern week | Comparing Purdue QBs Hudson Card, Ryan Browne |

Northwestern running game versus Purdue against the run

The Wildcats want to establish themselves on the ground, but it’s not emerged as a strength this season. Northwestern averages less than four yards per carry and a mere 110 rushing yards per game, good for 16th in the conference. Veteran tailback Cam Porter leads the team with just 52 rushing yards per game after battling years of injuries. Quarterback Jack Lausch will get involved in the designed and undesigned run game. Joseph Himon II will spell Porter, as the Wildcats deploy a two-tailback approach.

Purdue defended the run better against Oregon, holding the Ducks to less than four yards per carry. But run defense remains a sore spot on Purdue’s stat sheet. The Boilermakers rank 126th out of 134 FBS teams in run defense, allowing 214 yards per game. At times, running quarterbacks have given Purdue’s defense fits. Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard and Oregon State’s Gevani McCoy saw lots of success keeping the ball, so expect the Wildcats to look to expose Purdue’s weakness. Purdue defends the run up the middle fairly well, but opponents see success when attacking the edges. Can Purdue improve there coming off a bye week?

Northwestern passing game versus Purdue against the pass

It didn’t take long for Northwestern to make a quarterback change. After just three games, Lausch replaced Mike Wright, who struggled to generate offense early on. It provided a bit of a boost, but the passing game continues to struggle. Northwestern enters after two straight games without an offensive touchdown, in large part due to the ineffectiveness of the passing game. Lausch eclipsed the 200-yard mark against Indiana and Maryland, but he’s thrown for just 202 in the last two games combined. The Wildcat offensive line has allowed 17 sacks on the season, too.

Sixth-year senior Bryce Kirtz leads the receiving corps, but he’s hauled in just 27 passes in eight games. Former Purdue transfer portal target and Michigan transfer AJ Henning joins him, providing a speedy option on the outside. Northwestern has thrown for just four touchdown passes in 2024.

Dillon Gabriel’s Heisman-caliber performance continued to expose weaknesses in the Purdue secondary. The Boilermakers enter 96th in the FBS in pass defense. With Nyland Green out due to injury, Purdue mixed up looks in the secondary. Dillon Thieneman sometimes played the slot corner position as Smiley Bradford made his first start. Joseph Jefferson saw action in the secondary, but he disappeared from this week’s depth chart. With Green’s status up in the air, expect to see more of Botros Alisandro and Tarrion Grant if the Georgia transfer can’t go. The bright spot? Kydrich Breedlove picked off his third pass of the season, and the pass rush has generated 18 sacks.

Purdue running game versus Northwestern against the run

Through thick and thin, Devin Mockobee runs hard. He leads the Purdue rushing attack, which ranks in the top half of the conference. Mockobee should enter the top 10 of Purdue’s all-time rushing list in the coming weeks, and with another year of eligibility, Mike Alstott’s school record looks plausible. He and Reggie Love III form a nice duo in the backfield for the Boilermakers, as the two team up for over 110 yards per game.

What will Purdue do at quarterback? That question impacts the run game, as Purdue deployed a much different offense when Ryan Browne replaced the injured Hudson Card. With Browne, Purdue utilized a run option-based approach. While it succeeded against Illinois, it struggled to move the ball when the field condensed against Oregon. Walters indicated that Purdue will play both quarterbacks, but will it look to continue the run-heavy offense?

Northwestern features a classic Northwestern stout run defense. Opposing ball carriers average just three-and-a-half yards per attempt and 115 yards per game, good for 32nd nationally. A formidable pair of inside linebackers rack up the tackles in standard Northwestern fashion. Mac Uihelin and Xander Mueller close in on running backs, putting the defense in good situations on third downs. Uihelin ranks eighth in the league in tackles. Northwestern records about five tackles per loss each week, and Purdue will likely look to attack the edges to get away from the strength of the defense.

Purdue passing game versus Northwestern against the pass

The unclear approach at quarterback clouds this matchup, as Browne and Card present different options. Card throws the better football, as he enters with far more experience and can make more throws on the field. While Browne showed an ability to hit the deep ball at Illinois, he struggled to make plays against Oregon consistently. If Purdue plays both quarterbacks, what does the offense look like for each with Walters calling the plays?

CJ Smith looks primed to make his Purdue debut on Saturday, giving the offense what could be a much-needed speed injection. Purdue’s lacked big-play ability since Charlie Jones left campus in 2022, but it hopes the Georgia transfer can help. Additionally, George Burhenn returned to the depth chart after battling injuries. If they can help open up room to operate for Jahmal Edrine and Max Klare, Purdue could put together its most formidable passing attack of the season. Though, as it enters 120th nationally in passing offense, that may not say a ton.

Opponents do find success throwing the ball against Northwestern’s defense, which allows more passing yards per game than Purdue. Northwestern’s pass rush generates just over one sack per game, struggling to pressure the opposing quarterback. It’s snatched seven interceptions in eight games, as the Wildcats would prefer to force more turnovers. Purdue will want to avoid Indianapolis native Theran Johnson, who leads the Cats with two picks and nine pass breakups. This matchup depends heavily on what approach Purdue looks to take offensively.

Special teams

Purdue saw Spencer Porath’s second missed field goal come at an inopportune time, contributing to the program’s first shutout since 2013. He’s made five of seven tries in his true freshman campaign but just one of three from more than 30 yards out. Keelan Crimmins remains a revelation for Purdue at the punter position, though he’s the third-most-used punter in the conference. The return game continues to provide no juice, either, despite Purdue turning to different kickoff return looks.

Punter Luke Akers can match Crimmins’ ability, as he’s sent just one punt into the end zone for a touchback in 41 attempts. He’s the second-most-used punter in the league, possibly foreshadowing of what we could see from the two offenses. Northwestern switched kickers earlier this season, never an encouraging sign. It’s made 11 of 17 tries, and it’s missed two kicks from inside 30 yards. While the results are mixed, Northwestern doesn’t shy away from attempting field goals. The Wildcats did return a punt for a touchdown last week at Iowa, but that’s the highlight of the return game in Evanston this year.

Intangibles

It’s now or never for Purdue. With three top-15 opponents remaining and a trip to Michigan State, this looks like Purdue’s best (only?) chance to win a second game. As questions about the program’s future mount, it desperately needs a victory. The bye week provided the Boilermakers two weeks to prepare for a struggling Northwestern offense. Can the defense rise up and put the offense in a position to leave victorious? Purdue’s coaching staff remains positive about the mood of the locker room despite its struggles on the field.

Likewise, the last two weeks felt like a gut punch in Evanston. The Wildcats have returned to reality after a shocking eight-win season in 2023, as they didn’t score an offensive touchdown in non-competitive losses to Wisconsin and Iowa. This era of college football doesn’t play into the strengths of the Northwestern program, and the Wildcats still await their second bye week. Which locker room wants to snap a losing skid more?