Matchup Preview: Who has the edge?

Purdue at Ohio State, from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, November 9, 12:00 p.m. E.T.

Location: Ohio Stadium

Surface: Shaw Sports Momentum Pro Turf

Capacity: 102,780 (sold out)

2024 schedules/records: Purdue 1-7 (0-5 Big Ten), Ohio State 7-1 (4-1 Big Ten)

Series notes: Some of the most iconic moments of Purdue’s 21st century resulted from upsets of the Buckeyes. Purdue’s recorded five victories against Ohio State since the turn of the millennium, all coming in West Lafayette (2000, 2004, 2009, 2011, 2018). While Ross-Ade Stadium provided some great moments for Purdue, The Horseshoe hasn’t been so kind. Purdue’s last win over the Buckeyes came in 1988. Though 1999, 2003 and 2012 put some fear into the scarlet and grey faithful, it’s not come easily in Columbus. Ohio State leads the all-time series 42-15-2 and enters with a 26-5-2 edge in home games.

TV: FOX (PxP Gus Johnson, Analyst Joel Klatt, Sidelines Jenny Taft)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Ohio State -38, O/U 53.5

Weather: Very early forecast shows a high of 65 with partly cloudy skies

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Ohio State Roster | Ohio State Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Ohio State | First and 10: Ohio State | No question this week: Hudson Card is QB1 for Purdue | The 3-2-1: Trudging road of unhappy November destiny | Opponent View: Ohio State | Move from D3 to Big Ten not too big for Purdue’s Jireh Ojata |

Ohio State running game versus Purdue against the run

Perhaps no program boasts a better running back duo than Ohio State. TreVeyon Henderson deferred his pro career for a year to return to Columbus for his senior season. The former five-star prospect eclipsed the 3,000 career-yard mark earlier this season despite battling injuries as a Buckeye. His open-field speed makes him a lethal tailback, but he’s not Ohio State’s only elite option.

Quinshon Judkins transferred up north after he burst onto the national scene in two seasons at Ole Miss. He won SEC Freshman of the Year and earned first-team all-conference honors in 2022, running for more than 1,500 yards. While his numbers took a dip from splitting carries with Henderson, he’s a physical back at 219 pounds. They form an elite duo, leading a rushing attack averaging 184 yards per game. Though quarterback Will Howard showcased his ability to move at Kansas State, he’s not done so much at Ohio State.

After a disastrous start to the season, Purdue’s run defense has improved. Last week, it held Northwestern to 122 yards on 30 attempts, but 51 came on one touchdown run in the first half. Teams continue to find success attacking the perimeter of Purdue’s defense, exploiting a lack of speed in the linebacking group. Purdue ranks 121st out of the 133 FBS teams in run defense and has allowed 24 rushing touchdowns in just eight games.

Ohio State passing game versus Purdue against the pass

After an up-and-down 2023 season from Kyle McCord, the Buckeyes turned to the transfer portal in search of an upgrade at the quarterback spot. Howard came in following two strong seasons at Kansas State, helping lead the Wildcats to the 2022 Big 12 championship. He’s largely lived up to expectations, completing 71% of his passes for 250 yards per game and 15 touchdowns to just four picks.

It makes Howard’s life easier with an elite receiving corps. Emeka Egbuka, in his fourth season as a contributor, gives Howard a quick, heady veteran in the slot, while Jeremiah Smith looks like one of the nation’s premier true freshmen. The top recruit in the class of 2024, Smith averages 84 yards per game with a team-high seven receiving touchdowns. And, he’s generated highlight reel catches throughout the year. Sophomore Carnell Tate would star on many other teams, but he’s relegated to the third option in this bunch. But, the injury bug struck the Ohio State offensive line early this season. Without the top left tackle, the Buckeyes have been susceptible to the pass rush.

While Purdue’s run defense improved recently, pass coverage remains a concern. A poor Northwestern passing attack managed to throw for 302 yards on the Boilermakers, converting three third-and-10 or longer situations through the air. Purdue turns to zone coverage more than it did a season ago, but it hasn’t helped. In each of its last five games, Purdue has allowed 244 or more passing yards with three of those eclipsing the 300-yard mark. Kydran Jenkins continues to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but he doesn’t get much help.

Purdue running game versus Ohio State against the run

Following a pair of strong showings on the ground, Purdue struggled mightily running on the Northwestern defense. Purdue managed less than three yards per carry, even without sack losses removed. Devin Mockobee and Reggie Love III run hard, but inconsistent offensive line play limits the ground game. And, with Hudson Card looking like the man at quarterback, Purdue figures to lean away from the zone read plays. Ryan Browne may still see plays here and there to add a quarterback run threat. Purdue ranks ninth in the Big Ten on the ground.

Ohio State’s loaded front seven stifles opponents, holding them to 91 rushing yards per game, good for seventh-best nationally. The front four features a pair of NFL defensive ends, JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, and a solid defensive tackle, Tyleik Williams. Opponents struggle to reach three yards on a carry as the Buckeyes overwhelm opposing offensive lines. And the Buckeyes have allowed just four rushing touchdowns in eight games.

Purdue passing game versus Ohio State against the pass

Purdue turned back to Card for the majority of the game against Northwestern, and he turned in a nice performance. Though he only completed 57% of passes, he threw for 267 yards and opened up the offense. Expect Card to handle the load at quarterback this week as he hopes to finish off his Purdue career with a strong November.

CJ Smith made his highly-anticipated season debut with mixed results. He dropped a potentially significant gain on the opening play but also showcased his speed a time or two. Between him, Jahmal Edrine, and Max Klare, Purdue has the weapons it wants to feature on the outside. Pass protection will loom large to give Card time to operate. The Boilermakers don’t rotate on the offensive line, usually using the same five for each series.

Just like run defense, Ohio State ranks in the top 10 nationally against the pass. Although they don’t always get home, the pass rush generates substantial pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Tuimoloau leads the team with four sacks, but Sawyer leads with 27 pressures per Pro Football Focus. While he struggled in the loss to Oregon, corner Denzel Burke will hear his name called quickly in this spring’s draft. Few teams feature as talented of a safety tandem as the Buckeyes, either. Veteran Lathan Ransom and elite Alabama transfer Caleb Downs hold down the back end and limit explosive plays by opposing offenses.

Special teams

Walters raised eye browns when describing the decision to go for it on fourth and six from the 21-yard-line in overtime. He stated that he felt Purdue had a better chance to convert than for Spencer Porath to make the 38-yard kick from the right hash. While Porath remains perfect inside 30 yards on the year, he’s made just one of three attempts from beyond 30. It’s safe to say confidence in the kicking game lacks.

Meanwhile, it’s only possible to love what Purdue gets in the punting game. Keelan Crimmins continues to boom the ball, helping out a defense that can use any assistance. Purdue watched another kickoff bounce in front of the return man last weekend as the return game remains a non-factor. It didn’t result in a turnover, but Purdue must find a way to eliminate special teams errors.

A good problem to have, Ohio State kicker Jayden Fielding has only tried six field goals this season. He’s made five of them, with a long of 46, and his only miss coming from 42. Punter Joe McGuire averages less than three tries per game, which reflects the offense’s success. Five of his punts landed inside the 20, and only three traveled 50+ yards. The Buckeyes almost always opt for a fair catch on kickoffs, with just five returns on the year.

Intangibles

Purdue enters Columbus in what may be the most considerable underdog role in program history. A 38-point underdog, little is expected of the Boilermakers. While the result on the field may not look pretty, how much juice remains in Purdue’s locker room after a crushing defeat? Purdue’s lost seven consecutive games as pressure mounts on the coaching staff in what’s turned into a historic season for all the wrong reasons.

On the other sideline, Ohio State returns home after a massive win at Penn State. The Buckeyes fell behind 10-0 quickly, but a late goal-line stand sealed the deal in a game Ohio State needed badly. For many Buckeye backers, 2024 is a national title or bust campaign. After three disappointing seasons in a row by Ohio State standards, the pressure couldn’t be more intense. Will the Buckeyes turn in a business-like performance, or will a letdown follow an emotional victory?