Matchup Preview: Who has the edge?

Purdue vs. Penn State from a matchup perspective.

Date/Time: Saturday, November 16, 3:30 p.m. E.T.

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium

Surface: Bermuda Grass

Capacity: 61,441 (tickets)

2024 schedules/records: Purdue 1-8 (0-6 Big Ten), Penn State 8-1 (5-1 Big Ten)

Series notes: The recent history between these two programs favors the Nittany Lions. Penn State holds a 16-3-1 all-time edge in this series, entering Saturday on a 10-game winning streak against Purdue. The Boilermakers last took this matchup in 2004, a critical early-season win to improve to 5-0 the week before College GameDay came to West Lafayette. Most recently, Penn State scored in the final minute to squeak out a 35-31 win in the 2022 season opener on a Thursday night in Ross-Ade Stadium. Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State is 16-2 against Purdue.

TV: CBS (PxP Brad Nessler, Analyst Gary Danielson, Sidelines Jenny Dell)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Mark Herrmann, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Penn State -28, O/U 51

Weather: Very early forecast shows a high of 58 with partly cloudy skies

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Penn State Roster | Penn State Game Notes

Pregame: First Look: Penn State | First and 10: Penn State | Purdue’s Ryan Walters has learned ‘long list of things’ in 2024 | The 3-2-1: Spencer Porath or Ben Freehill? Kicking competition spices up moribund season | Opponent View: Penn State | Purdue primed to welcome almost 30 visitors for Penn State game | Rugged schedule makes Purdue’s hill to success steeper |

Penn State running game versus Purdue against the run

When Penn State last visited Ross-Ade Stadium, talented running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton played their first collegiate snaps. Now, the tandem leads the way for the Penn State ground game as juniors. They combine for 134 rushing yards per game with eight touchdowns. Both backs embrace physicality, often running through tackles while falling forward to gain extra yardage. After Purdue squared off with an elite running back duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins last week, it’ll see another one on Saturday.

The multi-faceted approach on the ground also extends to the player taking the snap. Quarterback Drew Allar can move when healthy, but whether he’s 100% remains to be seen after an injury a few weeks back. He only attempted to run three times in the blowout win at Washington last week. Backup Beau Pribula is a run-first quarterback who will come in for snaps here and there. Plus, Penn State will use tight end Tyler Warren for direct snaps periodically. All-in-all, Penn State runs for just shy of 200 yards per game.

Though it has allowed under 200 rushing yards in four consecutive games, Purdue’s run defense ranks among the nation’s worst. The Boilermakers rank 118th nationally in rushing defense, as opponents average over five yards per carry. Too often, teams can attack the perimeter against Purdue, exploiting a lack of speed at the linebacker position. Last week, Purdue switched things up at linebacker, giving Hudson Miller a larger workload, but the Buckeyes still saw success running side-to-side. Penn State likes to run between the tackles, but don’t be surprised if it runs outside more than usual.

Penn State passing game versus Purdue against the pass

In that 2022 season opener, Allar played six snaps due to an in-game injury to starter Sean Clifford. While Clifford led the Nittany Lions to 11 wins that season, it’s been Allar’s team ever since. A highly-touted recruit, Allar brings imposing size and a strong arm. He followed a conservative game plan last season and threw just two interceptions, but offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki unlocked more downfield passing from the junior this season. He’s not yet emerged as one of the nation’s elite passers, but he’s shown tangible improvement in his second season as a starter.

The knock on Penn State? Lack of dynamic targets in the passing game. When the Nittany Lions square off with elite competition, it holds them back from breaking through. Warren emerged as an all-purpose superstar this year, catching, running and throwing the ball. He does most of his damage from the tight end spot, though, leading the team with 75 receiving yards per game and 59 receptions, more than double the next-best on the roster. Harrison Wallace III leads the wide receiving corps, which includes former Ohio State Buckeye Julian Fleming. The running backs can get involved in the passing game, too.

As Purdue’s run defense has incrementally improved, the pass defense continues to struggle. Ohio State picked Purdue apart on Saturday, furthering a recent trend. Opponents complete north of 65% of their passes against Purdue for more than nine yards per attempt, a staggering number. Purdue has mixed and matched defensive looks this season to include more zone, but it’s made little difference. The Boilermakers rank 108th nationally in pass defense, a number that includes facing limited passing attacks early on in the season like Indiana State and Oregon State. In nine games, Purdue’s defense has forced just five turnovers.

Purdue running game versus Penn State against the run

Give Devin Mockobee credit. No matter the situation, the Boonville native runs hard and competes with his hair on fire. While he will likely fall short of the 1000-yard mark again this season, he continues to move up the all-time rushing ranks at Purdue. He currently holds 11th place, but he could move up a handful of spots in the final three games. Pairing him with Reggie Love III has helped Purdue run for 143 yards per game, good for 10th in the 18-team league.

Despite showing many quarterback run looks with Ryan Browne against Illinois and Oregon, Purdue reverted to a pass-centric approach when Hudson Card returned to play. The quarterback run game can be part of Purdue’s offense, especially if Browne sees more action, but the offensive approaches look very different based on the signal caller.

The Penn State run defense dominates. Opponents average a mere 3.2 yards per carry and just 100 yards per game, putting Penn State inside the top 10 in America. Though Penn State excels all over the field, the defense shines when the field condenses. Opponents have reached the red zone 21 times this season, but only eight resulted in touchdowns. Penn State’s defense can force fumbles with 10 on the season, something Purdue can ill-afford as it looks to compete despite long odds on Saturday.

Purdue passing game versus Penn State against the pass

New week, same result. On Saturday, Purdue fans felt an all-too-familiar feeling watching the passing game struggle mightily. Between Card and Browne, they completed just nine of 21 attempts. Almost inconceivably, the program that touts itself as the Cradle of Quarterbacks ranks 117th in the FBS in passing offense.

Whether Card or Browne takes the snaps, the inconsistent protection from the offensive line and lack of dynamic options on the outside limit what can take place. Max Klare clearly established himself as the top target immediately, but no wide receiver emerged as the alpha. Jaron Tibbs leads Purdue’s wideouts with 232 receiving yards this season – just 25.78 per game.

The Penn State pass defense stifles opponents. Entering Saturday, the Nittany Lions rank 13th nationally, allowing under 170 yards per game through the air. Abdul Carter holds second place in the conference with eight sacks and looks like a surefire first-round draft pick. Kobe King will join him in disrupting the passer, giving help to an already strong secondary. Opponents average fewer than six yards per pass attempt and convert roughly a third of their third down tries.

Special teams

After raising eyebrows with the decision to pass up a go-ahead field goal attempt in overtime against Northwestern, Walters looked somewhat vindicated after Spencer Porath missed a 21-yard field goal early in Columbus. He later missed from 38, as Purdue officially has a question mark at kicker. Porath enters Saturday seven-for-11 on the year, but he’s made just one of four from 30+ yards out. Would Purdue feel comfortable sending the true freshman out for a field goal try?

Keelan Crimmins continues to build his case for Team MVP. The Mississippi State transfer looks like an all-conference candidate. One of the lone bright spots on the team, at least Purdue has not seen issues emerge when punting the ball away. The return game remains a non-factor for the Boilermakers.

After Penn State missed three of five field goal tries to open the season, it turned to walk-on Ryan Barker. Since then, eight of Barker’s nine tries have sailed through the uprights, giving James Franklin confidence in his kicking game. Barker made a game-winner at USC earlier this season.

Punter Riley Thompson only averages three attempts per game, but he’s capable, as nine of his 25 attempts landed inside the 20. Singleton presents game-changing ability as a kickoff returner, but he’s yet to break off a big one this season.

Intangibles

Nobody saw this coming from Purdue. While the Boilermakers were picked to finish last in the Big Ten before the season, they’ve lost by nearly 30 points per game in the last eight games. In that time, they’ve suffered losses of 59, 46, 35 and 45 points. While Walters maintains that Purdue’s locker room remains hungry, it’s impossible not to feel the effects of a soul-crushing season.

As pressure mounts and questions linger about the future, can Purdue’s seniors turn in a competitive performance in their final showing at Ross-Ade?

Meanwhile, perhaps no program benefits more from a 12-team College Football Playoff than Penn State. In many recent years, the Nittany Lions just missed inclusion in the four-team format. With Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland to close the season, Penn State will likely find itself playing on the sport’s biggest stage. All it needs to do? Avoid catastrophe, which a loss as a four-touchdown favorite would undoubtedly qualify as.