NCAA Tournament Preview: #3 Purdue vs #18 Gonzaga

DETROIT — For the third time since the beginning of last year, Purdue meets national power Gonzaga, this time in the Sweet 16 at the Midwest Regional Friday night at Little Caesars Arena.

DETAILS: Friday, March 29, 2024 | 7:39 p.m. ET | TV: TBS/TruTV (Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas, Evan Washburn) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (31-4): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
GONZAGA (27-7): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	3	3	3	3	67%
Gonzaga	18	16	17	12	33%

THREE THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• Purdue’s appearing in its fifth Sweet 16 since 2016, looking to appear in its second Elite Eight during that span. Either Tennessee or Creighton would be awaiting in the Elite Eight Sunday.

• Purdue beat Gonzaga 73-63 in Honolulu in November en route to winning the Maui Invitational. The Boilermakers are looking for their third win over the Zags since the start of last season. Purdue also beat Gonzaga at the PK85 in Portland last November.

• The crowd in Indianapolis last weekend was predictably decidedly pro-Purdue. It’s not unreasonable to expect something similar in Detroit, particularly against Gonzaga.

• Purdue is shooting 40.9 percent from three-point range this season. Fletcher Loyer is an astonishing 13-of-19 since the calendar turned to March. But the Boilermakers were only 4-of-17 in the first meeting with the Zags, though.

A FEW THINGS ABOUT THIS GAME

• Once at risk of missing the Tournament for the first time under Mark Few, Gonzaga has won 11 of its last 12 games and wound up earning a 5 seed before beating a good McNeese State team and a short-handed Kansas to advance to Detroit.

• Gonzaga is seventh nationally in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, a stark contrast from the putrid shooting Purdue saw from the Zags at the Maui Invitational. They were 6-of-32 from three that day. But they’re at 36 percent for the season and shot 39 percent in WCC play.

• Mark Few changed his starting five mid-season and now starts 6-foot-9 Graham Ike, 6-8 Anton Watson and 6-10 Ben Gregg together. Gonzaga is going to want to make that a rebounding advantage; Purdue will want to make them run.

Conversely, Gonzaga guards Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard are the key. They are both very good shooters but also want to be pace-setters in transition. Purdue beat them at their own game in Hawaii.

• Purdue’s weak spot all season has been turnovers, but more specifically opponents’ points off those turnovers. In Hawaii, Gonzaga scored 19 off 13 Boilermaker turnovers. Keep in mind, though, that was the fourth game of the season and the Zags’ defensive profile does not show them to be a heavy-pressure, turnover-generating team.

TURNOVERS	REBOUNDING	THE FOUL LINE
Not a lot of matchup-specific concerns here, but it’s more about Purdue than the opponent anyway. This is the worry that could end Purdue’s season at any time. Again, Gonzaga got 19 point off turnovers in Hawaii.	Purdue’s strengths have to be constants now. One of them is rebounding at both ends. Gonzaga’s bigger front line might be an obstacle.	Purdue is what it is at the foul line at this point, but it does have a habit of leaving a lot of points on the floor at the stripe.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 82, GONZAGA 73

Purdue has proven itself to be a great team all season, but also a particularly determined one this postseason. Most relevant, it has clearly proven itself to be a dreadful matchup for Gonzaga. Purdue has to do a decent job at least on the Zags’ guards, but everything would seem to set up well.

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