Opponent View/Scouting Notre Dame

Notre Dame will roll into Ross-Ade Stadium on Saturday to play Purdue coming off a stunning 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois, a 28.5-point underdog. Dylan Sinn covers the Fighting Irish for the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette and breaks down ND before its visit.

GoldandBlack.com: What can Purdue fans expect to see from the Notre Dame offense on Saturday?

Sinn: It’s kind of unclear as to what to expect, because what they showed against Northern Illinois was not good. You’d think they’re going to try to make some adjustments.

Usually, the quarterback run game is a significant part of what they do. They did that against Texas A&M. Riley Leonard is a good runner. He’s a strong runner. And Notre Dame has a good stable of running backs, with Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Aneyas Williams. They moved the ball well on the ground. The problem now is that they didn’t do the quarterback run at all for the second half against Northern Illinois. Part of that was because they didn’t run a whole lot plays. Northern Illinois controlled the ball.

But also yesterday, there were reports that Leonard is nursing an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, so that might have played a role, as well. (OC) Mike Denbrock said that it did not. So, we’ll see whether that changes on Saturday. I do expect Notre Dame to run the ball plenty. Love is a very, very good running back.

The passing game is where it kind of gets tricky for Notre Dame. Leonard is completing barely 60% of his passes for about five yards per attempt, which is obviously not what you want. And they haven’t been able to hit any downfield shots. Beaux Collins is their best receiver. He’s a very good transfer from Clemson. And they have some weapons on the outside. Kris Mitchell, a transfer from FIU, Mitchell Evans, a preseason All-American tight end who is still kind of rounding into form as they try to get him back from an ACL injury at the end of last season.

But it’s kind of unclear what form this offense is going to take what they did against NIU was not good enough. They’re probably going to make some adjustments. I expect them to go with more QB run if Leonard is able to do so, because that was basically the one thing that worked on a consistent basis against NIU. But, obviously, Purdue is going to try to pack the box and make that difficult. So, they’re probably gonna have to hit some shots downfield.

I think probably Mitchell and Collins are going to step up in this game. Notre Dame is gonna be able to move the ball. I think Purdue will try to make Notre Dame one-dimensional. I think that’s probably the right move; come after Leonard, make him uncomfortable. He was uncomfortable at times against NIU, he bailed out of the pocket too early. That’s something that they know he needs to work on. I think that’s going to be a key to the game, whether Purdue can get him out of rhythm.

GoldandBlack.com: How good is this ND defense? It looks to be the strength of the squad.

Sinn: The secondary is very, very good. Xavier Watts, the safety, won the Bronco Nagurski Award as the best defensive player in the country last year. I think he’s gotten better this offseason. He’s really, really good. He was great in run support against NIU in a way that he really wasn’t last year. Last year, he was kind of just a ball hawk, sitting back and picking off passes. Benjamin Morrison is one of the best cornerbacks in the country. So, they have guys back there in the secondary that are going to make you pay if you’re not accurate with the ball, or if you’re not making the right reads.

But it’s not like they’re weak up front, either. They have one of the best defensive tackle duos in the country in Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills, both of whom are very, very good. If they can get pressure with four most of the time, then the secondary is able to sit back and really wait on the quarterback to make a mistake. I think that was the one issue against NIU, was that when guys were able to get past that first line of defense, the linebackers weren’t great with their run fits.

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Drayk Bowen and Jaylen Sneed are two new starters at that position, and they’re very good, they’re very talented, they’re high level recruits, but they’re still new starters, right? And so they’re figuring things out, and I think that’s where Purdue will probably try to have some success early is replicating what NIU did, a lot of misdirection in the run game, trying to get these guys to mistrust their eyes. And I think that’s probably the right move. And once you get the run game going, then you can try to hit a shot over the top and see if you can get something to Jahmal Edrine or Leland Smith or someone like that.

You have to establish the run against Notre Dame to even give that secondary something to think about. If you’re just sitting there, pass, pass, pass the entire game, they are going to be salivating. You need to do a bunch of different things in the run game, kind of get them out of position a little bit and then hit the pass.

GoldandBlack.com: How do you see this game unfolding?

Sinn: I think Purdue keeps it close. I don’t think this will be a blowout. I’m not a gambling man, but if the spread is double-digits, I would take Purdue to cover. I think that Notre Dame’s offense is just not good enough right now to really blow anyone out.

I think this game comes down to a couple of big plays, kind of like it did against Texas A&M. In that game, Notre Dame was able to make the two big plays. They had the two touchdown runs of 20-plus yards to win the game in the second half. That was all they needed. I think that if Purdue can avoid those types of big plays, if you make Notre Dame drive down the field, I don’t know if Notre Dame is capable of doing that right now. They haven’t been able to sustain drives in either of their two games. The only time they did it was the very first drive, the scripted drive, against NIU. And after that, they were pretty hapless the rest of the day.

Can Purdue get pressure up front? Can it get to Leonard fast enough so that those receivers can’t get open? I do think that’s a matchup where Purdue has an advantage. I think that their cornerbacks can hold on to those receivers at least long enough to let those guys, Will Heldt and Co., get home. That is something that could happen.

So, if Purdue can avoid big plays, they’re going to be in this game until the end and have a chance to win it. And it’s just a matter of, OK, which offense is able to run the ball more efficiently? I would pick Notre Dame to win. I’m not confident in that prediction.

I’m really interested to see how Notre Dame bounces back from the NIU game. I do think that they’ll have a good mindset going into the game. I think they have the veteran leadership that tells me they’re not gonna let that happen again. But they just weren’t good in that game. It wasn’t really like they blew it, or came out flat or anything like that. They just weren’t good schematically. And so it’s a question of, can you make the scheme corrections to beat Purdue? And I’m not sure they can. So, we’ll have to see.

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