Purdue Basketball Game 21 Preview: at Michigan

Top-ranked Purdue has a chance this next week or two to really put some distance between itself and the field atop the Big Ten standings, starting Thursday at Michigan in the one and only meeting this regular season between the two teams. Here’s our in-depth preview of the Boilermakers’ visit to the Crisler Center

Where: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)

When: Thursday, Jan. 25, 9 p.m. ET

TV: FS1

Radio: Purdue Sports Network (WAZY locally)

In-game updates: GoldandBlack.com | Twitter @brianneubert

ABOUT THE TEAMS

Purdue: Roster | Schedule | Stats

Michigan: Roster | Schedule | Stats

NUMBERS AND SUCH

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	1	1	4	5	68%
Michigan	—	—	77	60	32%

ON PURDUE (19-1, 8-1 B1G)

• The Boilermakers head to Ann Arbor holding a two-game lead in the Big Ten standings as the halfway point of the conference season looms. Purdue’s looking for its first win in Crisler since 2018.

• Purdue traveled to Michigan a day earlier than previously scheduled due to the snowstorm that hit Indiana Wednesday.

PROJECTED PURDUE LINEUPS

Starters

Center — 15 Zach Edey (7-4, 290, Junior)

The National Player of the Year front-runner gets another marquee post matchup, this time against Purdue nemesis Hunter Dickinson, second only to Drew Timme on the list of great bigs Purdue’s seen this season. It’s actually a shorter-than-usual list this season.

Forward— 1 Caleb Furst (6-10, 230, Sophomore)

Furst’s motor and outstanding complementary play alongside Edey seem to come to the forefront more and more each week, even if they may be easy to overlook at times.

Guard — 3 Braden Smith (6-0, 180, Freshman)

Smith has been a revelation for Purdue this season and has really helped make the Boilermakers’ ball-screen offense game especially formidable. He’s also played really well on the road.

Guard — 2 Fletcher Loyer (6-4, 185, Freshman)

After a run of blazing shooting, Loyer’s just 1-of-6 from three the past two games, with the one make being a banked-in prayer against Maryland. Michigan would be a great platform for a turnaround.

Guard/Forward — 25 Ethan Morton (6-7, 215, Junior)

The Boilermakers’ go-to perimeter defender may not have to take on Jett Howard but nevertheless will have a handful of a matchup, whether it’s three-point threat Joey Baker or one of Michigan’s highly athletic wings. His offensive savvy will matter, too, when Michigan throws zone at Purdue.

Rotational Reserves

Forward — 0 Mason Gillis (6-6, 230, Junior)

There might be moments when Michigan goes supremely big, sometimes against its own best interests, at which time the physicality and whatnot Furst and Gillis provide might cancel out whatever advantage the Wolverines could otherwise get in that regard.

Guard — 5 Brandon Newman (6-5, 200, Junior)

One of these high-end games, Newman’s coming to come in and give Purdue an offensive spark.

Forward/Center — 4 Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 225, Redshirt Freshman)

Purdue may have to be careful to make sure that it can side-step Kaufman-Renn having to match up with Hunter Dickinson, because that would be a big ask.

Guard — 14 David Jenkins Jr. (6-1, 200, Senior)

Something to watch maybe: Jenkins will have a massive size-and-strength advantage against Wolverine freshman Dug McDaniel should the two square off.

Guard/Forward — 11 Brian Waddell (6-8, 195, Redshirt Freshman)

Note: Freshman center Will Berg and wing Camden Heide will redshirt this season.

ON MICHIGAN (11-8, 5-3 B1G)

• Michigan would seem likely to be without freshman standout Jett Howard, who is battling a knee injury suffered against Minnesota. One of the best freshmen in the Big Ten and a soon-to-be first-round NBA pick, Juwan Howard’s son averages 14-plus points and would be one of the trickier matchups for Purdue.

• The Wolverines have been up and down this season, but also so close to so much, as Michigan was good enough to beat Virginia at home earlier this season, then blew a win at Iowa one game after playing Michigan State toe to toe in East Lansing.

But Michigan’s coming off just a four-point win over middling Minnesota, albeit the game in which Howard was hurt.

MICHIGAN LINEUPS

Center — 1 Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260, Junior)

The first-team All-Big Ten big man will be the best center Purdue has seen this season since Drew Timme, but it’s Dickinson’s ability to shoot the three that the Boilermakers will really worry about. He was 6-of-9 in two games against Purdue last season and is shooting 40 percent on 25 attempts this season.

Guard — 2 Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195, Sophomore)

Coming off an up-and-down freshman season, the former blue-chip recruit averages 12-plus points per game and would be needed to carry more of the scoring load should Michigan be without Jett Howard.

Guard — 0 Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160, Freshman)

Michigan’s in the hands of a true freshman at point after veteran transfer Jaelin Llewellyn was lost for the season to a knee injury in December.

Forward — 5 Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225, Junior)

Another former big-time recruit, Williams is a big wing with defensive versatility who averages seven points per game.

Guard — 15 Joey Baker (6-7, 205, Grad)

The Duke transfer would be the presumed fill-in should Jett Howard miss this game. Baker’s a 44-percent three-point shooter.

Bench

Forward — 32 Tarris Reed (6-10, 260, Freshman)

Michigan will go supremely big at times by playing Reed alongside Dickinson. How viable that be would be against Purdue — since Reed would presumably be needed to guard Edey at times — remains to be seen.

Forward — 42 Will Tschetter (6-8, 240, Redshirt Freshman)

THREE KEYS FOR PURDUE

The interior	be ready for zone	Dickinson
Purdue will need to hammer the glass and really make Hunter Dickinson work on defense around the basket with Zach Edey. Dickinson is no fan of fouling, and might be ripe for the picking against Edey in that regard. Expect Michigan to help him.	The second half against Maryland might give Michigan incentive to run more zone than it otherwise might. Purdue will need to keep a level head, be strong with the ball, decisive with its passing and driving and ideally, make some shots.	Purdue’s going to have to guard him out to 20-plus feet and rotate effectively, but also be really effective with whatever post double-teams they throw at him down low to make sure Edey doesn’t have to worry about foul trouble.

LIGHTNING-ROUND TAKES

• If Purdue can come out of this week unscathed — against Michigan and Michigan State — it will do no worse than share the Big Ten regular season title.

• It would be too bad if Purdue doesn’t get to face Jett Howard, the level of talent it would eventually run into in March. The Boilermakers have been good defensively this season, but still could use high-end tests, especially against elite backcourt players and high-level athleticism.

• Purdue owes Michigan one, as the Wolverines have been an obstacle the Boilermakers have had a hard time getting past of late, thanks in part to Michigan’s COVID break last season.

PREDICTION: PURDUE 72, MICHIGAN 67

Michigan’s been a bit erratic this season and Jett Howard’s injury is a blow, even if he does play. Dickinson can be a real problem for Purdue. That said, Zach Edey should be a real problem for the Wolverines and the Boilermakers have done nothing but win, especially away from Mackey Arena. Purdue hasn’t looked like a team that will beat itself, so a lot would have to go right for the Wolverines, and they’ve been inconsistent enough this season to make you wonder if it can.