Purdue Basketball Game 30 preview: Wisconsin

MADISON, Wis. – The No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament is secured, but Purdue is seeking to win the outright conference championship on Thursday at Wisconsin. The fifth-ranked Boilermakers clinched a share of the league title Sunday when Northwestern lost at Maryland but need one win in their final two games to claim sole possession of first place. The Badgers are trying to hold onto the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten tournament and avoid playing on the first day.

Where: Kohl Center

When: Saturday, 9 p.m. ET

TV: Fox Sports 1

Radio: Purdue Sports Network (WAZY locally)

In-game updates: GoldandBlack.com | Twitter @mike_carmin

ABOUT THE TEAMS

Purdue: Roster | Schedule | Stats

Wisconsin: Roster | Schedule | Stats

NUMBERS AND SUCH

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	5	5	5	6	66%
Wisconsin	–	–	75	67	34%

ON WISCONSIN (16-12, 8-10 B1G)

• The Badgers need March to be different than February. The good news – Wisconsin didn’t lose two in a row last month. The bad news – the Badgers didn’t win two in a row. They played eight games with five decided by five points or less and three overtime thrillers. Overall, Wisconsin has played 17 games decided by five points or less and is 10-7. The Badgers have been close but the time for close is over if an NCAA tournament berth is coming. They’re considered a bubble team but wins against Purdue and Minnesota change that.

• Don’t look for Wisconsin to give the Boilermakers many extra possessions. The Badgers are tied for second nationally in turnovers per game (8.7) behind Penn State, which tops the country in this category. In 18 conference games, Wisconsin has committed 10 or more turnovers three times. But single-digit turnovers don’t equal success. While the Badgers have attempted the fourth-most field goals among Big Ten teams in conference games, they’re the worst shooting team in the league (40.8). Wisconsin is shooting just 45.8% from 2-point range in Big Ten games.

PROJECTED WISCONSIN LINEUPS

Forward— 22 Steven Crowl (7-0, 245, Jr.)

Will try to keep Purdue’s Zach Edey in check from a defensive standpoint but can challenge the Boilermakers outside the lane. Has made 11 3-pointers in Big Ten games but shooting 24.4%. Leads the Badgers in rebounds, ranks second in assists and is third in points.

Forward — 5 Tyler Wahl (6-9, 225, Sr.)

Missed three conference games earlier this season and the Badgers went 0-3, demonstrating his importance. Averaging a double-double in the last two games against Iowa and Michigan. First-team All-Big Ten preseason selection.

Guard— 3 Connor Essegian (6-4, 185, Fr.)

Averaging 16.1 points over the last six games to establish himself as one of the top freshmen in the Big Ten. Scored a season-high 24 points in the loss to Michigan after putting up 23 in the first meeting against the Wolverines. The Central Noble graduate, Wisconsin’s first signee from the state of Indiana since 1997, set the program’s single-season record for 3-pointers, topping Brad Davison’s mark of 60 set in 2018.

Guard — 11 Max Klesmit (6-3, 200, Jr.)

Scored a season-high 19 points in Sunday’s loss at Michigan, making up for the absence of Hepburn. The transfer from Wofford is averaging nearly 10 points in the last nine games since returning from an injury. Shooting 38% from 3-point range in Big Ten games.

Guard — 23 Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 205, So.)

Suffered a knee injury in the loss to Michigan but it’s unclear if Hepburn returns to the lineup. The team’s leading scorer played 20 minutes and totaled four points before suffering a knee injury. Hepburn hasn’t reached double figures in three of the last four games. Drained the game-winning basket against Purdue last season to clinch the Big Ten title in Madison.

Bench

Guard – 4 Kamari McGee (6-0, 180, So.)

Filled in for Hepburn on Sunday, playing a season-high 25 minutes and scoring six points.

Forward – 14 Carter Gilmore (6-7, 225, Jr.)

Guard — 2 Jordan Davis (6-4, 200, Jr.)

Has reached double figures in two Big Ten games (Northwestern and Rutgers).

ON PURDUE (24-5, 13-5 B1G)

• The week started with four teams with a chance to catch the Boilermakers and share the Big Ten championship. On Tuesday, Indiana lost. On Wednesday, Maryland and Northwestern were beaten. That leaves Michigan as the only team with an opportunity to claim a piece of the league championship. The Wolverines will need to win two road games – Illinois and Indiana – and hope Purdue falls at Wisconsin and at home against Illinois. The Boilermakers hold the No. 1 seed since they beat Michigan in the only regular-season meeting. Regardless, Purdue needs to finish strong.

• Can the Boilermakers find their mojo again? It’s not all about shooting, but Purdue needs to find a way to score on a consistent basis, and not all from the 3-point line. The Boilermakers are a good free-throw shooting team but missed 11 against the Hoosiers. They’re rebounding well and have taken care of the ball better in the last couple of games. Purdue will get open perimeter shots because teams will double Zach Edey but must find the right shot and not always the first one.

• Part of finishing strong is playing better on the defensive end. Purdue is an improved defensive team compared to last year but has allowed 30 or more points in the paint in the last in five of the last six games. With Edey as a rim protector, the Boilermakers shouldn’t see big numbers from opponents but the perimeter defense needs to be stronger heading into the postseason and keep guards outside the lane.

PROJECTED PURDUE LINEUPS

Starters

Center — 15 Zach Edey (7-4, 290, Junior)

Shot less than 50% for only the third time this season after going 8 of 17 against Indiana on Saturday. Didn’t attempt a field goal during the Hoosiers’ 17-2 run and needs to have touches to bring the momentum back to the Boilermakers. Posted double-figure rebounding performances in six of the last eight games. Named a semifinalist for Naismith Defensive Player of the Year earlier this week.

Forward — 1 Caleb Furst (6-10, 230, Sophomore)

Brought a lot of energy with a steal, a blocked shot and a dunk before the first media timeout against IU and finished with eight points. Averaging 4.8 rebounds the last five games.

Guard — 3 Braden Smith (6-0, 180, Freshman)

Totaled eight rebounds and six assists but was 2 of 11 shooting against the Hoosiers. Made 16 of 18 free throws in the last five games.

Guard — 2 Fletcher Loyer (6-4, 185, Freshman)

Still struggling to find consistency in his shooting. He’s 9 of 33 in the last four games. including 3 of 14 from beyond the arc. Pulled down a season-high five rebounds against the Hoosiers.

Guard/Forward — 25 Ethan Morton (6-7, 215, Junior)

Had open looks from 3-point range against Indiana but only one fell, adding to the dismal shooting performance overall. Will need to be at the top of his defensive game against Hepburn and Essegian when the Boilermakers switch.

Rotational Reserves

Forward — 0 Mason Gillis (6-6, 230, Junior)

Made 6 of 18 from 3-point range since hitting nine against Penn State on Feb. 1 but that’s life as a perimeter shooter. Grabbed 15 rebounds in the last two games.

Guard — 14 David Jenkins Jr. (6-1, 200, Senior)

Didn’t score in four of the five losses, including the last three.

Guard — 5 Brandon Newman (6-5, 200, Junior)

Collected 22 points in the last three games, hitting 5 of 13 from 3-point range, and also totaled five steals.

Forward/Center — 4 Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 225, Redshirt Freshman)

Seeing more action at the power forward spot alongside Edey. Made 8 of 10 free throws the last two games.

Guard/Forward — 11 Brian Waddell (6-8, 195, Redshirt Freshman)

Note: Freshman center Will Berg and wing Camden Heide will redshirt this season.

LIGHTNING-ROUND TAKES

• By winning Thursday at Wisconsin, the Boilermakers would avoid their first court storm since Jan. 26 at Michigan. Indiana, Northwestern and Maryland all stormed the court after beating Purdue.

• With wins against the Badgers and Illinois, the thinking is the Boilermakers will likely maintain their No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. That’s where Purdue was in the bracket reveal last month and has a good chance of staying on the line but the margin for error has dwindled.

PREDICTION: PURDUE 63, WISCONSIN 59

A share of the conference championship and the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament are wrapped up, but there’s plenty to play for in the final two games. Purdue needs to show it can put together a complete game, an element that has been missing the last month. Losing four of the last six has reflected the inability to put a 40-minute game together. It would be a good sign heading into the postseason, but nothing has been easy for the Boilermakers this season. Expect more of the same at the Kohl Center.