Purdue Basketball Game 22 Preview: Michigan State

No. 1 Purdue returns home to begin the back half of the Big Ten schedule, hosting Michigan State Sunday in another opportunity for the Boilermakers to separate themselves from the field in the conference race. Here’s our in-depth preview of Purdue’s rematch with the Spartans.

Where: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette)

When: Sunday, Jan. 29, 12:15 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

Radio: Purdue Sports Network (WAZY locally)

In-game updates: GoldandBlack.com | Twitter @brianneubert

ABOUT THE TEAMS

Purdue: Roster | Schedule | Stats

Michigan State: Roster | Schedule | Stats

NUMBERS AND SUCH

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	1	1	4	4	81%
Michigan State	—	—	40	42	19%

ON PURDUE (20-1, 9-1 B1G)

• Purdue’s won its last seven games and takes the floor for the first time at home ranked No. 1 with the students present. The Rutgers loss weeks back came when school was out of session.

• The Boilermakers are currently top-five nationally in offensive efficiency and top-20 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Purdue stands alone in that narrow superlative. Of note: Two of the teams ranked ahead of the Boilermakers offensively are Marquette (1) and Gonzaga (3), two of the teams Purdue beat in non-conference play.

Unbelievably, in context, Purdue now leads the Big Ten in scoring defense in conference games, allowing just 61 points per game.

• Led by Zach Edey (73.5 percent on immense volume), Purdue’s now a top-20 foul-shooting team nationally by percentage, at just under 77 percent. Braden Smith leads the Big Ten in conference play at 92.6 percent, with Fletcher Loyer not far behind at 85.3 percent.

Purdue’s shooting 78.4 percent at the foul line in Big Ten play, No. 1 in the conference.

PROJECTED PURDUE LINEUPS

Starters

Center — 15 Zach Edey (7-4, 290, Junior)

It wasn’t that long after Edey put up 32 and 17 and beat Michigan State in the final seconds in East Lansing that Tom Izzo began publicly lobbying the refs in advance of this game. The Spartans generally goes one on one in the post, but Edey will need to be ready for anything, whether it be from the Spartans or the striped shirts.

Forward— 1 Caleb Furst (6-10, 230, Sophomore)

Furst was a difference-maker in the first game against the Spartans, with eight points and six boards and a key three, but also a player — or position — Michigan State went after on defense, running Joey Hauser off a ton of screens to get him to the basket or open for jumpers.

Guard — 3 Braden Smith (6-0, 180, Freshman)

Purdue’s fearless freshman point guard was turnover-prone in the first meeting with Michigan State, and seems like the sort who’d take that to heart this time around. His knack for taking command of games in key moments showed up again in the final minutes at Michigan.

Guard — 2 Fletcher Loyer (6-4, 185, Freshman)

Loyer roasted Michigan State to the tune of 17 points and four assists in the first meeting and really carried Purdue with the game on the line. Better believe he will be a marked man this time around, if he wasn’t before.

Guard/Forward — 25 Ethan Morton (6-7, 215, Junior)

Defensively, Morton has been excellent this season against a murderer’s row of different matchups. That three he made at Michigan was quietly a really big shot given that the Wolverines were making a run during that first half. He’s going to get some open looks against Michigan State, most likely.

Rotational Reserves

Forward — 0 Mason Gillis (6-6, 230, Junior)

Gillis started the second half at Michigan in place of Furst, but that seemed like just a game-conditions maneuver and nothing lasting. That said, Gillis played that second half in Ann Arbor like a man possessed and remains the equivalent of a sixth starter.

Guard — 14 David Jenkins Jr. (6-1, 200, Senior)

You know, Purdue recruited Jenkins to play point guard whereas he’s been an alpha sort of scorer his whole college career prior. But that sure comes in handy at the end of shot clocks, as he’s made so many buzzer-beating shots this season.

Guard — 5 Brandon Newman (6-5, 200, Junior)

Kudos to Newman for coming in at the end of the game and sealing the Michigan win with those two free throws, his reliability in that regarding getting him important minutes when Purdue has been in lead-preservation mode this season.

Forward/Center — 4 Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 225, Redshirt Freshman)

Kaufman-Renn’s breakout Big Ten game came at Michigan, where his eight points off the bench might have been the difference.

Guard/Forward — 11 Brian Waddell (6-8, 195, Redshirt Freshman)

Note: Freshman center Will Berg and wing Camden Heide will redshirt this season.

ON MICHIGAN STATE (14-7, 6-4 B1G)

• Michigan State’s topsy-turvy Big Ten season continued with a narrow win over Iowa in which the Spartans managed just 63 points at home against the league’s worst scoring defense. The Hawkeyes missed a pair of threes in the final seconds to likely win it.

The Iowa win came after a one-sided Spartan loss at Indiana and a one-sided win over Rutgers in East Lansing, which actually really helped Purdue.

• Michigan State has scored 70 points just once in Big Ten play, and that was against Nebraska in East Lansing a month ago.

• Opponents are shooting only 28.5 percent from three against Michigan State in Big Ten games. Purdue was 4-of-10 in its win over the Spartans earlier this month.

MICHIGAN STATE LINEUPS

Guard — 11 A.J. Hoggard (6-4, 205, Junior)

The big and physical point guard is the key to Michigan State’s transition game, which Purdue did a good job heading off in Game 1. He’s also a handful from a size perspective for the Boilermakers’ smaller guards.

Guard — 2 Tyson Walker (6-1, 180, Senior)

Walker scored 30 against Purdue last time and has had a knack for making big shots against the Boilermakers, particularly when isolated against the Boilermaker big men in five-man switches. Whoever’s guarding him, he’s a tough cover who doesn’t need much space to get his shot off.

Forward — 10 Joey Hauser (6-9, 220, Grad)

Before Walker took over late in the game, Hauser had some things working against Purdue, as Michigan State ran him off a bunch of off-ball screens against bigger forwards and got him scoring opportunities. Something to watch this time around again.

Guard — 3 Jaden Akins (6-4, 190, Sophomore)

After scoring five points against Purdue in the loss at the Breslin Center, Akins has averaged 12.7 points in the three games since and is 8-of-14 from three in that span.

Center — 22 Mady Sissoko (6-9, 240, Junior)

Sissoko had his hands full against Zach Edey going one on one in East Lansing, Michigan State’s game plan putting him in a tough position. He did not score against the Boilermakers in that game, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a factor on the offensive glass or at the rim if Purdue’s not careful.

Bench

Forward — 25 Malik Hall (6-8, 220, Senior)

Hall returned from injury against Iowa, and looked fine in playing 25 minutes. Michigan State’s ability to play smaller and more skilled against Purdue’s size will be enhanced with his presence

Center— 15 Carson Cooper (6-11, 230, Freshman)

Forward — 0 Jaxson Kohler (6-9, 240, Freshman)

Guard — 5 Tre Holloman (6-2, 180, Freshman)

Guard — 1 Pierre Brooks II (6-6, 220, Sophomore)

THREE KEYS FOR PURDUE

transition	rebounding	the refs
Michigan State wants to run and generate high-percentage layups and threes. Purdue’s transition D has to be good, but the best transition D is the kind that’s not needed, because you’re scoring a lot, running down long rebounds and not turning the ball over.	Michigan State outrebounded Purdue in East Lansing, which is a feat. It’s the defensive glass in particular where the Boilermakers will want to exert themselves. The long ones need to be tracked down.	Tom Izzo’s public working of the officials started as soon as that first game was over with. Watch out for cheap fouls on Edey, like the one he got with at Michigan just to keep him and Hunter Dickinson even.

LIGHTNING-ROUND TAKES

• Get this one and Purdue has taken another big step toward a Big Ten title, no matter how early it still is. Who’s the Boilermakers’ main competition right now? This one might knock the Spartans out of the running for that distinction.

• Walker’s a tough cover, but Joey Hauser’s the guy Purdue needs to stop.

PREDICTION: PURDUE 71, MICHIGAN STATE 64

Michigan State’s always a tough out, and they’ll do a better job on Zach Edey this time. But Purdue will do a better job of Tyson Walker — or better said, Walker probably won’t ride the same sort of heater in Mackey that he did in Breslin. The home crowd will be a big deal for Purdue, but it mustn’t lose its cool in the most viscerally stimulating environment of the season. The previous standard was probably Marquette and Purdue finished that game better than it started.