Purdue Basketball Game 16 Preview: vs. Penn State in Philly

PHILADELPHIA — Coming off a big win at Ohio State, top-ranked Purdue turns right around to “visit” Penn State at the Palestra in Philadelphia. Here’s our GoldandBlack.com breakdown of the meeting between the Boilermakers and Nittany Lions.

Where: The Palestra (Philadelphia)

When: Sunday, Jan. 8, 6 p.m. ET

TV: BTN

Radio: Purdue Sports Network (WAZY locally)

In-game updates: GoldandBlack.com | Twitter @brianneubert

ABOUT THE TEAMS

Purdue: Roster | Schedule | Stats

Penn State: Roster | Schedule | Stats

NUMBERS AND SUCH

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	1	1	5	7	67%
Penn State	—	ARV	66	46	33%

ON #1 PURDUE (14-1, 3-1 B1G)

• The Boilermakers warmed up from three-point range — finally — and came away with the 71-69 win at Ohio State to show for it. After an 0-for-7 start, they made six out of eight to end the first half, erasing a 12-point deficit, and finished with a season-high 13 triples on 31 attempts.

Does that momentum endure?

Some positive trend lines lie in Fletcher Loyer making big shots two games in a row, Braden Smith continuing to be consistent and David Jenkins breaking out for a 3-for-3 night in Columbus.

• Purdue’s turned the ball over 27 times in the two games since Big Ten play resumed. Rutgers and Ohio State got a combined 32 points off them. A destructive run of second-half turnovers in Columbus easily could have cost the Boilermakers that game.

PROJECTED PURDUE LINEUPS

Starters

Center — 15 Zach Edey (7-4, 290, Junior)

One of the best players in college basketball, Edey’s going to be hard-pressed to go off as a scorer the way he often did early this season, but he’s making great decisions and produced 11 points for Purdue via his four assists at Ohio State. And he’s still an elite rebounder, which sometimes seems like the easiest way for him to get the ball in his hands.

Forward— 1 Caleb Furst (6-10, 230, Sophomore)

Furst and Purdue’s other 4s will again be tested defensively having to guard perimeter-oriented hybrid-types. It was an issue at Ohio State and it may be an issue again at Penn State, very much a four-out offense looking to shoot threes.

Guard — 3 Braden Smith (6-0, 180, Freshman)

The freshman responded to the Rutgers loss emphatically. He was outstanding at Ohio State and really the driving force behind that win.

Guard — 2 Fletcher Loyer (6-4, 185, Freshman)

Loyer’s not shot the ball as well percentages-wise for the season, but he’s making the big ones, none more so than his game-winner at Ohio State. Now, he faces the coach who recruited him to Purdue (Micah Shrewsberry) in the city he grew up in when his father, John, coached for the 76ers from 2005-2009 before moving to the near-by then-New Jersey Nets for a couple seasons.

Guard/Forward — 25 Ethan Morton (6-7, 215, Junior)

Morton is getting wide-open shots in Purdue’s offense and will keep having chances to really make opponents pay. He was 2-of-7 at Ohio State, but made a big one, along with some enormous defensive plays. That’s where his importance may lie most against Penn State, as the guess here is Purdue tries to leverage his height and length on Jalen Pickett.

Rotational Reserves

Forward — 0 Mason Gillis (6-6, 230, Junior)

Purdue’s purposefully getting Gillis great looks from three-point range and he’s yet another Boilermaker who’ll keep getting chances to turn games on their sides with a hot night here and there.

Guard — 5 Brandon Newman (6-5, 200, Junior)

Newman apparently wasn’t feeling well in the first half at Ohio State, compelling Matt Painter to sit him during the second half. No reason to think he won’t be good to go at the Palestra.

Forward/Center — 4 Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 225, Redshirt Freshman)

Kaufman-Renn’s productivity in non-conference play hasn’t quite translated to the Big Ten game yet, but it’s reasonable to assume he’ll settle in over time.

Guard — 14 David Jenkins Jr. (6-1, 200, Senior)

Jenkins was really the unsung hero of the Ohio State win, as he broke out of his shooting slump at the right time and really helped Purdue open the floodgates from long range. Not sure confidence would have been an issue for a shooter so accomplished, but there’s no downside to seeing the ball go in. Defensively, maybe his strength can be useful against Pickett.

Guard/Forward — 11 Brian Waddell (6-8, 195, Redshirt Freshman)

Guard/Forward — 23 Camden Heide (6-7, 205, Freshman)

Heide is redshirting this season.

Note: Freshman center Will Berg will redshirt this season.

ON PENN STATE (11-4, 2-2 B1G)

• Penn State relies on the three-pointer just about as much as anyone in college basketball, as nearly half the Nittany Lions’ scoring (47.6 percent) coming from beyond the arc. Penn State shoots better than 38 percent on threes, top-20 nationally.

• Micah Shrewsberry and his staff have worked the portal hard and have one of the oldest teams in college basketball to show for it, with four senior starters, including three fifth-years, and an additional fifth-year senior coming off the bench.

• The Lions are No. 1 nationally in turnover percentage at just 12.9 percent.

PENN STATE LINEUPS

Guard — 22 Jalen Pickett (6-4, 209, Grad)

Playing at a first-team All-Big Ten sort of level during his COVID year, Pickett averages 17-plus points per game, coming off back-to-back 26-point outings. He’s the centerpiece of Penn State’s offense, and team. He’s a really physical scoring guard who gave the Boilermakers fits in the post at last year’s Big Ten Tournament, en route to scoring 16. Here’s guessing Purdue tries to protect its young guards by matching up Morton on Pickett as much as it can, but does it run help at him, too?

Forward — 1 Seth Lundy (6-6, 220, Senior)

Purdue’s seen first-hand before what Lundy’s capable of from long range, and he’s shooting 40-plus percent from three-point range this season, making for a really tricky matchup for Purdue, as its bigger 4 men may have to chase him around. That sort of thing is not their strength, as Ohio State just highlighted.

Guard — 10 Andrew Funk (6-5, 200, R-Senior)

Funk has made — and attempted — more threes than anyone in the Big Ten, making 41 percent of them.

Guard — 23 Camren Wynter (6-2, 200, R-Senior)

The Drexel transfer has filled a critical role for Penn State, starting every game this season.

Center — 3 Kebba Njie (6-10, 237, Freshman)

The promising rookie big man has a chance to be really good at Penn State, but Zach Edey will represent an up-hill battle for him. Expect him to have plenty of help and for the Nittany Lions to have a creative plan for defending the post.

Bench

Guard/Forward — 12 Evan Mahaffey (6-6, 200, Freshman)

Guard/Forward — 2 Myles Dread (6-4, 235, R-Senior)

Dread will come out firing, as he averages 9.3 three-point attempts per 40 minutes. He’s making 45 percent.

LIGHTNING-ROUND TAKES

• Small ball can be a real problem for Purdue when the opponent can make threes. Penn State sure can. To make the math work, these are games where the Boilermakers need Zach Edey leveraged to the fullest extent.

THREE KEYS FOR PURDUE

defensive rebounding	Pickett	make early threes
Penn State’s going to shoot a ton of threes, and Purdue will need to do a good job contesting those, but when the Lions miss, the Boilermakers can’t let those long rebounds provide do-overs. The guards in particular have to be quick to the ball coming off the rim.	Pickett’s ability to body up and back down other guards makes him a tricky matchup, and once a defense over-reacts he’ll spray the ball around to all the shooters around him.	We’ll keep mentioning this ’til it happens. Purdue showed what it’s capable of when it makes threes at Ohio State, but it was no coincidence that Zach Edey really took off once that happened. Early makes would get Purdue off to the sort of good starts it would love.

PREDICTION: PURDUE 72, PENN STATE 67

Purdue has to get its emerging turnover issue under control. And these teams’ respective three-point shooting may decide this game. Penn State is great at it and built for it. Purdue’s not been great at it, but maybe the Boilermakers just turned a corner at Ohio State. Zach Edey will be too much for Penn State, but can Purdue max out his productivity against whatever Penn State throws at him?