Purdue Basketball Preview: Game 23 — @ Iowa

IOWA CITY — Now just a game back in the loss column of Michigan State, seventh-ranked Purdue looks to keep pace Tuesday night at Iowa, a team enduring a rough go of things.

DETAILS: Tuesday, Feb. 5, 2025 | 7 p.m. ET | TV: Peacock (Paul Burmeister, Stephen Bardo) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (17-5, 9-2 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
IOWA (13-8, 4-6 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	7	7	10	8	71%
Iowa	—	—	63	66	29%

A FEW THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• After Michigan State’s loss at USC, the Boilermakers are now a half game behind the Spartans and a half game ahead of Michigan in the Big Ten standings. Those three have some cushion atop the conference.

• Purdue is now first in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play, according to KenPom, and second defensively. Nationally, Purdue is top-10 in offense and top-30 on defense.

• Juniors Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith have each been named to the midseason watch list for the Oscar Robertson Trophy.

• Since blowing Nebraska’s doors off, Purdue is just 19-of-58 from three-point range the past five games, 32.7 percent, failing to capitalize on a number of great looks vs. Indiana that could have blown that game open.

• The last three games, Purdue has scored 30, 29 and 26 points, respectively, off turnovers. Since Big Ten play resumed, it’s averaging a stunning 20.9 points off turnovers.

• Purdue’s turnover margin of +5.45 leads the Big Ten by a mile and stands as the statistic that best explains the Boilermakers’ strong play since Big Ten season resumed. Iowa is No. 2 in the league at +3.1.

Purdue is generating a whopping 15.7 turnovers per game and committing only 10.3.

• Freshman Gicarri Harris is shooting 91 percent from the foul line for the entire season and is 7-of-15 from three since conference play resumed.

ABOUT THIS GAME

• This game comes a day after Iowa announced that center and leading scorer Owen Freeman is lost for the season due to a hand injury, a devastating blow to a team whose season had already gone sideways.

• The Hawkeyes have lost four of their last five to drop to 4-6 in the Big Ten, with things maybe going from bad to worse without Freeman.

• As has held Iowa’s program back for years now, its only defense is potent offense. Iowa is allowing a league-worst (by a wide margin) 84.9 points per game in Big Ten play, way worse on the road. It gave up an unbelievable 116 at Wisconsin — Wisconsin — and 99 and 94, respectively, at USC and UCLA.

Opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 53.7 is one of the worst in the country, and things figure to get worse without Freeman’s size at the basket. Big Ten teams have shot 52 percent overall against the Hawkeyes. Opponents shoot 57 percent from two-point range, in part because …

• … Iowa is one of the least effective rebounding teams out there, as its opponents have rebounded roughly a third of their misses, in part because of Iowa’s transition-minded approach to offense. Putbacks bloat those two-point numbers considerably.

Iowa is 18 out of 18 in the Big Ten in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.

Losing Freeman obviously amplifies this problem to its furthest degree.

• But, again, as is the norm at Iowa, they’re pretty good offensively, a team that’ll play fast, that won’t turn the ball over much and will spread the floor with a bunch of shooters. The Hawkeyes shoot a sparkling 39 percent as a team from three-point range, but have been strangely bad at the foul line, though Freeman was central to that issue.

Without Freeman, Purdue ought to be ready to see Iowa put five perimeter guys on the floor at the same time. Sparsely used bigs Ladji Dembele and Riley Mulvey are next up in the post otherwise.

• Iowa freshman Trey Buchanan, the son of Pacers G.M. Chad Buchanan, is Braden Smith‘s former teammate at Westfield High School. He’s redshirting.

THREE KEYS FOR PURDUE

TURN THE KNIFE	TURNOVERS AND POISE	THREES
A lot of games, Purdue has to overachieve on the glass due to its lack of size. This is not one of those games. Purdue should be the more physical team up front and on the glass and may be able to dominate.	Iowa’s going to extend its defense and then probably play a ton of zone. Purdue’s poise in the backcourt and shooting are keys and its decision-making in the halfcourt obviously really matter. This is Iowa’s best hope.	Over-simplifying this, but Purdue is going to have to make threes in order to separate here, and if Iowa is going to pull an upset, it’s going to have to make 15-plus triples. Purdue has to keep them out of transition looks.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 84, IOWA 72

Don’t take this game lightly. Iowa is really struggling and now down its best/only big guy, but there are paths here, traps Purdue has to be wary of. All it takes is a few Purdue mistakes, another rough shooting game and for Josh Dix or someone to hit six threes and suddenly, the pressure shifts to the favorites. You can say much of that about any game, but Purdue’s shooting lately coupled with the unknown of what gimmicks Iowa may try — why not just play five guards/wings? — has to raise some antennae.