Purdue Basketball Preview: Game 27 — @ Michigan State

EAST LANSING, Mich. — Purdue and Michigan State have much at stake Tuesday night in East Lansing in their one and only regular season meeting, as the Boilermakers have lost two in a row and the Spartans three of their last five. Big Ten championship viability may be on the line.

DETAILS: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025 | 7 p.m. ET | TV: Peacock (Noah Eagle, Robbie Hummel, Caroline Pineda) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (19-7, 11-4 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
MICHIGAN STATE(20-5, 11-3 B1G): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	13	14	13	10	43%
Michigan State	14	13	21	17	57%

A FEW THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• Purdue’s narrow loss at Michigan coupled with its home loss to Wisconsin has put the Boilermakers two games behind league-leading Michigan State in the loss column and one behind the Spartans.

• Braden Smith needs only 15 more assists to become Purdue’s career leader. That may seem unreasonable to get in one game, but Smith does have 11 double-digit assists games this season, including 15 in Game 1 and back-to-back 14s in January.

• Trey Kaufman-Renn is now the Big Ten’s leading scorer, averaging 20.2 points in conference play, doing so playing less than 30 minutes per game.

• Purdue’s five points off turnovers vs. Wisconsin were a season low and a stark contrast from what had the Boilermakers surging through January and into this month. The Badgers deserve credit for that, obviously.

The Boilermakers are still No. 1 in the Big Ten in defensive turnover percentage.

• Freshmen CJ Cox and Gicarri Harris are shooting a combined 41.4 percent from three in Big Ten games.

ABOUT THIS GAME

• Michigan State’s 79-65 win at cratering Illinois was Tom Izzo’s 354th Big Ten win, breaking Bob Knight’s career record.

• Illinois led that game by as many as 16, then amazingly didn’t score in the game’s final 8:55, missing its final 19 shots.

• After a 13-game win streak, the Spartans were 9-0 in the conference before their trip to Los Angeles in which they lost at both USC and UCLA, then dropped a home game to IU in their second game after returning, which has been a trend in the newly expanded Big Ten this season.

• It won’t matter if Purdue doesn’t do its part defensively, but Michigan State is one of the worst three-point-shooting teams in college basketball, shooting just 29.1 percent. But it also doesn’t take a ton of them.

• Michigan State is No. 1 in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and tops in scoring defense, allowing just 67 points or so.

• As is Michigan State’s long-standing staple, the Spartans are the best offensive rebounding team in the Big Ten, which could align with a Purdue vulnerability, especially if fracases around the rim are called closely.

• Interestingly, Michigan State has no one averaging more than Jaden Akins’ 13.2 points, but has eight players averaging six or more and 10 averaging five or more.

THREE KEYS FOR PURDUE

TRANSITION	REBOUNDING	WINNING INSIDE
This is Michigan State’s staple. Purdue has to be good in transition D, but more importantly in being solid on offense, not turning the ball over or taking bad shots that might lead to long rebounds. It’s been solid in those regards but it’s really important in this game.	Per usual, Michigan State is going to hammer the offensive glass. Purdue will need to be physical at every position, but without fouling. Easier said than done.	Tom Izzo normally goes one-on-one in the post and implores his posts to play with a cage-match mentality. One on one, Trey Kaufman-Renn is hard to stop. He and Caleb Furst need to be efficient in their touches around the rim.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 64, MICHIGAN STATE 62

Yeah, Purdue has to prove its defensive failings the past two games were a blip and not a new normal, but this is still a very good team. So is Michigan State, but its three-point shooting is not great — you have to make threes to beat Purdue’s systematic dynamics — and that’s a big deal in games like this. Rebounding and pace are key. We’ll still give the benefit of the doubt to Purdue’s experience and championship track record and the best point guard in America, not to mention one of the best interior scorers.