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Purdue Basketball Preview: Game 9 at Penn State, the Big Ten opener

On3 imageby:Brian Neubert12/05/24

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Purdue's Braden Smith
Purdue's Braden Smith (Chad Krockover)

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — Big Ten play is here, already, as the eighth-ranked Purdue Boilermakers travel to Penn State for Thursday’s opener before hosting Maryland this weekend.

DETAILS: Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024 | 6:30 p.m. ET | TV: FS1 (Jeff Levering, Laphonso Ellis) | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
PURDUE (7-1): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS
PENN STATE (7-1): ROSTER | SCHEDULE | STATS

TeamAPCoachesNETKenPomKenPom Win%
Purdue78181351%
Penn State323649%

A FEW THINGS ABOUT PURDUE

• Purdue is 1-5 in its last six December Big Ten road openers, oddly.

• The Boilermakers are shooting a blistering 42.1 percent from three-point range as a team.

Trey Kaufman-Renn is now averaging a team-best 19.1 points and 7.1 rebounds, shooting 60 percent, with more assists (21) than turnovers (15). After being name the Rady Children’s Invitational MVP, he was named Big Ten Player-of-the-Week.

Camden Heide and Myles Colvin are combining to average around 21 points per game since joining the starting five after the Marquette loss.

Braden Smith averages 9.1 assists per game, second nationally behind only Gonzaga’s Ryan Nembhard.

ABOUT THIS GAME

Ace Baldwin is one of the top guards in the Big Ten and best defensive guards in America — the reigning Big Ten Defensive Player-of-the-Year — but also a 38-percent three-point shooter on high volume, an impeccable foul shooter and fourth nationally in assists per game (8.4). Containing him will be paramount to Purdue’s success, with Myles Colvin perhaps drawing that assignment.

Baldwin will absolutely guard Braden Smith.

• The Nittany Lions have been a slight betting favorite.

• Penn State got real big real fast in the off-season, bringing in 7-foot, 250-pound NIU transfer Yanic Konan Niederhauser, who’s averaging 14.3 points on 69 percent shooting, 6.5 rebounds and two blocked shots per game.

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Additionally, Penn State welcomed 6-8, 225-pound Xavier transfer Kachi Nzeh.

• Penn State generates turnovers very effectively, as is Mike Rhoades’ coaching M.O. The Lions are 11th nationally with a defensive turnover percentage of 23.4. Opponents are turning the ball over 17.3 times per game. Baldwin averages better than two steals per game.

• Senior forward Zach Hicks is 24-of-48 from three-point range this season. Penn State shoots 38 percent as a team.

• Penn State’s lone loss this season came in Florida vs. Clemson, which just beat Kentucky. Its other high-major game to this point was a convincing win over a struggling Virginia Tech team in Baltimore.

THREE KEYS FOR PURDUE

TURNOVERSLEVERAGE PERIMETER SKILLREBOUND
Obviously. Penn State is a high-pressure team that will press and trap all over the floor. Such things haven’t been a huge issue for Purdue — its issues at Marquette were more in the halfcourt — but it merits hyper-awareness. Purdue needs to take care of the ball, but also score on Penn State when it extends.Whether it’s ‘small ball’ or not is debatable, but Purdue’s going to face some really big front lines in Big Ten play, starting Thursday. Purdue ought to want to put the big fella in ball screens all day and make its 4 men chase Camden Heide around.Purdue’s getting it done with supreme effort right now and doesn’t have room to let up. Some second-chance points in this game might loom large.

GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREDICTION: PURDUE 72, PENN STATE 70

This is going to be a battle, and the turnover column and threes may decide it. This would project as a possible big game for Smith, both in press break and if Penn State drops its big man in ball screens, but Baldwin’s going to be up for this one, as well.

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