Purdue Football: Covering the Tracks

I have been getting a LOT of calls, texts, and messages asking: “With the switch to On3, what will happen to the weekly football gambling column?!?!?” (Nobody asked, but I am sure you all thought about it deeply).  Have no fear friends, Covering the Tracks has made the move with GBI to On3.  Without further adieu, welcome to the fourth year, eighth edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet.  New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis.  For this week, we look at the 2022 Iowa Hawkeyes.

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Prior Week Recap

A big thank you to anyone who tuned into Gold and Black live two weeks ago.  Also, my thanks to Alan for the opportunity.  As stated on the show, unfortunately, Wisconsin was the play and the Badgers won with a rocking chair cover (no sweat, easy cover).  The total went over with relative ease.  We will see if the Boilers got healthy over the bye week and can bounce back against Iowa.

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 3-5 ATS, Overs are 6-2. 

Iowa: 4-4 ATS,  Overs are 3-5.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 11/4/22:

Current spread: Purdue -3.5 (Opened -4.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +110, Iowa -130 

1H Spread: Purdue -2.5, O/U 19

Over/Under: 38.5 (Opened 43.5)

Iowa O/U: 17.5  (Over +105, Under -135)

Purdue O/U: 20.5  (Over -115, Under -115)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 51% on Purdue, 31% on over

Money: 22% on Purdue, 3% on over

Executive Summary

Trend Analysis for Iowa

· Purdue is 5-0 ATS against Iowa under Brohm.  Brohm is 4-1 straight up against Iowa.  This is without a doubt the best record Brohm has ATS against a Big Ten team, however, we must note that technically Jeff did not coach the 2020 win (Thank you, Brian).

2021: Purdue 24-7, Purdue covers +11.5

2020: Purdue 24-20, Purdue covers +3  

2019: Iowa 26-20, Purdue covers +17.5

2018: Purdue 38-36, Purdue covers -1.5

2017: Purdue 24-15, Purdue covers +9

· Purdue is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite under Brohm.  Purdue is 1-2 in this spot this season.  Purdue covered against Indiana State, but failed to cover against Nebraska and FAU.

· Purdue is 7-3 ATS under Brohm in games where Purdue has a rest advantage.  Purdue has covered in this spot by an average of ten points.

· The over is 12-9 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is a home favorite.  The total has gone over by an average of 1.9 points in this spot.

· In Purdue games against Big Ten opponents under Brohm, the over is 22-24-1.  The under hits in this spot by an average of .4 points.

· In Purdue games under Brohm where Purdue has a rest advantage, the over is 5-5.

· My trend database only goes back to 2003, so any trends for Iowa will be used dating back to then, given Kirk Farentz’ long tenure with the school.

· Iowa is 20-12-1 ATS when the Hawkeyes have a rest disadvantage under Kirk Farentz.  This certainly is not common, and is quite frankly wildly impressive.

· Iowa is 23-24-1 ATS as an away underdog under Farentz.  The Hawkeyes have covered by an average of 1.1 points in this spot, which tells me when the Hawkeyes cover, the cover the spread by more than the difference when they do not cover.

· Iowa is 76-71-2 ATS after a win under Farentz.  Iowa covers in this spot by an average of 1.9 points.

· Under Farentz, the total in Iowa games when the Hawkeyes have a rest disadvantage is 16-16-1.  The under has hit on average in the spot by .5 points.

· The over is 19-29 when Iowa is an away underdog under Farentz. 

· The over is 71-73-3 after an Iowa win under Farentz.  The total goes under in this spot by an average of 4.5 points.

Miscellaneous Factors

· “Iowa, I am your Father” -Jeff Brohm, probably.  Purdue has been a perfect 5-0 ATS the spread against Iowa under Brohm.  Jeff has had incredible success against the Hawkeyes, with the only loss coming when the Boilers were a double digit underdog and Iowa finished that season ranked at 10-3.  What is wild to me: Purdue has scored 20 in every one of these games except one.  It is not like Brohm’s offenses are out dueling Iowa (other than 2018), but rather, the theme seems to be timely offensive scores combined with great defense.  

· For Whom the Bell Tolls.  There was no greater sigh of relief from a fanbase than from Iowa fans when Cleveland took David Bell in the 2022 NFL Draft.  Bell had earned a reputation for torching the Hawkeyes (ironic, given that Bell was down to Purdue and Iowa seemingly for a commitment, but this rings similar to Gary Harris or Branden Dawson torching Purdue.  Before Bell, Anthony Mahoungou lit up the Iowa secondary in what was a season-defining win for the Boilers.  Can Purdue find another receiver to carry the 200 yards title against Iowa?  The obvious answer is Charlie Jones, however, I would expect Iowa to gameplan him pretty hard (they did for Bell too, that went well).  This would be a fun game for Mr. Tracy to breakout, no?  

· Rain, Rain, Go Away.  As things currently stand, weather projections have rain hitting West Lafayette in the early morning.  A perfect symbol to represent playing the worst offense in college football at noon on a November Saturday.  Using my extensive meteorology expertise (IPhone weather app), it looks like it will only be about a 25% chance of rain around kick.  For those who have forgotten, traditionally speaking, Jeff Brohm Purdue teams are h-o-r-r-i-b-l-e in the rain.  Horrible.  Purdue-EMU, Purdue Illinois, etc.  The offense just dies.  Normally, experts will tell you wind matter more than rain, which may be true overall, but with the case study that is Jeff Brohm, rain is public enemy #1.  Wind will play a factor as well it seems, so even so, expect it to be a little challenging throwing the ball.

· Infirmary or Secondary?  The Purdue defensive back room, as has been well documented, is depleted beyond belief.  The bye week could not have come at a better time, but there is a question as to how healthy the room got over the free week.  WITH THAT BEING SAID, if there was ever a time to be a little down at defensive back, you could not have picked a better team to play.  “But Vegas Gold and Black Report, you should treat Iowa with respect!” Or, no, because that offense is that bad.  If Iowa hangs it up on Purdue, I will eat crow.  Even hurt DB’s can guard this team.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  To be blunt, these numbers are extremely strange to me.  This is a decent sized handle right now, but it does not make sense that the difference is this big.  49% of bets by 78% of money is a MASSIVE difference.  This, in theory, would suggest that whenever someone is betting on Iowa, the amount being put on Iowa is significantly more than a Purdue bettor.  However, 78% of money on one side automatically makes me want to go the opposite way.  To me, I want to back Purdue with only 22% of the money.  How accurate the numbers actually are is a tad concerning just given the discrepancy.  Everyone and their mother is on the under, presumably because of the weather.  The total has already dropped 5 points.  This will be a very popular pick.  Rain and wind could keep this low scoring, especially with Iowas offensive woes and defensive successes.  Keep in mind, I have been certifiably terrible this year on totals, but the lean should be the over given the public overreaction to weather and the high bet percentage.      EDGE: Purdue spread, Over.

Trends:  We have quite the contradiction here.  On one hand, Jeff Brohm is not very good as a favorite, however, Jeff Brohm has been incredible when coming off a bye week with a rest advantage.  The extra time to gameplan normally allows Jeff the opportunity to scheme some home run plays that have helped to really put games away.  The other trend is Purdue’s struggles particularly in rain.  A bad weather game plays in Iowa’s hands perfectly, and it would not shock me if they try to make this as ugly as possible.  Iowa’s trends do not tell much, since Kirk has been there so long, almost everything has regressed to a mean of 50%.  The most important trend of all?  Jeff Brohm has dominated Iowa ATS.   EDGE: Purdue, Under  

Situation:  Purdue is coming off its largest margin of loss this season with a game lost before ESPN could even put it on TV.  With the week off, Purdue may be out-of-sight, out-of-mind for public bettors.  Iowa, on the other hand, showed some offensive prowess for the first time really this year, hanging 33, yes, thirty three, points on Northwestern.  Now obviously Northwestern is bad, but Iowa looked good and I wonder if public bettors think they have turned a corner.  Obviously the defense is widely respected by all, and that is evident by the back on the under.  I see a slight overreaction to Iowa’s result last week, and probably a slight overreaction to the Wisconsin loss.  Remember, the Wisconsin loss, in terms of a Big Ten West Championship, really meant nothing.  Win out and the Boilers are in Indy.   EDGE: Slightly Purdue, Over.

Total Analysis:  This game may be a complete stay away for me.  There are so many contradicting factors.  On one hand, Brohm has had a lot of success against Iowa, and he has had a ton of success after a bye.  On the other hand, the teams have struggled as a favorite and in bad weather, which we likely will have Saturday.  Iowa has been wildly unimpressive offensively, but will it matter on Saturday if both offenses are neutralized by weather?  The money is too heavy on Iowa, which leans Purdue for me.  In true contrarian fashion, is over the play?  It feels disgusting, but a five point swing gives some value.  Can Purdue run the ball effectively enough?

Prediction:  21-10 Purdue.  The over is probably the correct play given the money on the under.  The weather terrifies me above all else.  I do think Purdue keeps the Iowa offense at bay, and can squeak out 2 or 3 really big plays to score a couple touchdowns.  The bye week may be the saving grace for Jeff.

Official Plays: Purdue -3.5, Under 38.5.  Yuck.  If you are going to take the under, it will continually move down if weather conditions are bad tomorrow, so get it sooner rather than later.  Purdue defense on FanDuel is 25/1 to score first touchdown.  Value play in bad weather?  Maybe!

Glossary

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -3.5 against Iowa meaning a sportsbook would expect Iowa to lose by 3.5 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -3.5 or Iowa +3.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 4 or more. If one bets on Iowa spread, the Hawkeyes would have to win or lose by 3 or less.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Iowa by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Iowa has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.

Related: Purdue Football Notebook | Matchup Preview: Purdue-Iowa