Purdue Football "Covering the Tracks"--Illinois
Covering The Tracks: Illinois
Welcome to the fourth year, ninth edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet. Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively and never bet more than you can afford to lose. New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis. For this week, we look at the 2022 Illinois Fighting Illini.
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Prior Week Recap
Column goes 1-1 as Iowa unfortunately covers, but the under hits easily thanks to the offensive ineptitude from the Purdue offense thanks in large part to the wind conditions present in West Lafayette last Saturday. End of an era as Iowa finally covers against Jeff Brohm. I said I would eat crow if Iowa threw the ball on our DB’s and they did so, whoopee I guess. Leave it to Purdue to make Spencer Petras look half decent.
2022 Season ATS Records
Purdue: 3-6 ATS, Overs are 6-3.
Illinois: 6-3 ATS, Overs are 2-6-1.
Betting Numbers
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 11/11/22:
Current spread: Purdue +6.5 (Opened +6.5).
Moneyline: Purdue +215, Illinois -255
1H Spread: Purdue +3.5, O/U 23
Over/Under: 44.5 (Opened 46.5)
Illinois O/U: 26.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Purdue O/U: 18.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
Betting Percentage Breakdown
Bets: 59% on Purdue, 31% on over
Money: 15% on Purdue, 53% on over
Executive Summary
Early on, with a low amount of bets, most of the betting dollars seem to be backing the Illini. We have not seen any line movement, as the number has stayed at 6.5, under the key number of 7. This could be the sportsbooks trying to entice more wagers on Illinois -6.5, since in theory those bettors would only need Illinois to win by 7. Both these teams perform well in their respective spots. Jeff Brohm has flourished as an away underdog, especially against ranked teams. Bret Bielema’s Illinois teams have responded well following a loss, and generally have overperformed Vegas expectation in conference play. The Boiler offense has struggled for two straight weeks, however, Brohm and AOC are too smart and too talented to continue with the struggles.
LINK: GoldandBlack.com Matchup Preview: Purdue-Illinois
Trend Analysis for Illinois
· Purdue is 2-3 ATS against Illinois under Brohm. Brohm is 4-1 straight up against Illinois. However, in his only matchup against Bret Bielema, the Boilers won but failed to cover, only putting up 13 points. Also of note, the total has gone under in all five games against Illinois under Brohm, with the Boilers scoring 13 points and 9 points in two of the five games.
2021: Purdue 13-9, Illinois covered +10.5, total went under 53
2020: Purdue 31-24, Illinois covered +9.5, total went under 55.5
2019: Illinois 24-6 (gross rain game), Illinois covered +9.5, total went under 54.5
2018: Purdue 46-7, Purdue covered -10.5, total went under 62.5
2017: Purdue 29-10, Purdue covered -14, total went under 49.5
· Purdue is 10-5 ATS as an away underdog under Brohm. Purdue covers on average in this spot by 7 and Purdue has flourished under Brohm in this spot. While technically an underdog at Wisconsin, the Boilers covered at Maryland and Minnesota in this spot prior.
· Purdue is 11-4 ATS under Brohm when playing against a ranked opponent. Thank you Minnesota for adding to the tally this year.
· Purdue has locked back-to-back Big Ten games a couple times after Brohm. The Boilers lost four straight in the weird COVID year of 2020, and lost 2 sets of back-to-back games in 2019. Both times in 2019, Purdue responded after the second loss with a win and a team total of more than 30 points. October 26, 2019 against Illinois was also the last time the Boilers put up single digits under Jeff Brohm. The Boilers responded by putting up 31 points in a winning effort against Nebraska.
· The over is 5-10 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is an away favorite. The total has gone under by an average of 1.9 points in this spot.
· In Purdue games against Big Ten opponents under Brohm, the over is 22-25-1. The under hits in this spot by an average of .7 points.
· In Purdue games under Brohm against ranked teams, the total has gone under 10 out of 15 games.
· Illinois is 4-3-1 ATS when the Fighting Illini are a home favorite under Bret Bielema.
· Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS after a loss under Bielema. The Fighting Illini have covered by an average of 10.6 points in this spot.
· Illinois is 10-5 ATS in conference games under Bielema. Illinois covers in this spot by an average of 7.7 points.
· Under Bielema, the total has gone under five times in eight games when Illinois is a home favorite. The under hits on average by 6.2 points.
· The over is 1-7 after an Illinois loss under Bielema, hitting on average by 14.7 points.
Miscellaneous Factors
· Does anyone want to win the Big Ten West?. Well, Purdue and Illinois, both the presumed leaders in the Big Ten West, both suffered losses last week that made for a weird Big Ten West to get even weirder. The doors have opened for Iowa and Wisconsin to really get back in the fold, with Illinois still having to go to Michigan next weekend. How fitting would it be for Wisconsin to fire its first head coach midseason in my lifetime, only for them to still win the division. Basically what is going to happen when the Tom Brady Buccaneers win the NFC South at 8-9, but I digress. I do not think it is that bold of a “take” to suggest that the loser of this game can cancel their Indianapolis hotel reservations for December 3. With a loss, Purdue would have four Big Ten losses with losing tiebreakers to Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois. With a loss, Illinois would have three Big Ten losses heading into Ann Arbor next weekend, but they would have lost the tiebreaker to Purdue, who has Northwestern and IU left. Even after the losses from both sides last weekend, this game is massive. Iowa and Wisconsin still play each other, and Minnesota could yet further cause some chaos. Must win for either side. An Illinois loss at Michigan does not matter if they beat Purdue.
· The Winds of Winter. Last week was arguably the worst performance of AOC’s Purdue career. While I certainly will not blame him for all of the offenses shortcomings against Iowa, it would be malpractice to not acknowledge that on multiple occasions, specifically the Charlie Jones sideline fade, AOC made the right read and did not execute. The wind wrecked the Purdue offenses, and I do believe part of that is AOC’s arm strength against the wind speed. Luckily, forecasts for Saturday show a much more stereotypical November Saturday in the midwest. While temperatures will be on the chilly side, the wind should be closer to 10-15 mph, with no 50 mph wind gusts.
· How the turntables. For a majority of the season, Purdue and Illinois had been the “surprise” teams of the Big Ten. Illinois, gaining a nice fancy number before their name, even jumped into the rankings for the first time in as long as I can remember for a program who lost at home multiple times to Darrell Hazell. Bret Bielema has shown his coaching prowess in getting Illinois back to football relevancy with a defense that, by all metrics, has been elite. This is the first time in Jeff Brohm’s Purdue tenure that Illinois is the favorite in this matchup. Personally, I think Purdue has overlooked Illinois in the past (a microcosm of Purdue’s record under Brohm when the Boilers are the favorite), and that has resulted in some games that have come out closer than they should have been. Neither team will be lacking effort or motivation Saturday.
· Mr. Jones. Look, I need to preface this with a comment that Charlie Jones has done everything and anything Purdue could ask of him up to this point. He has been incredible. Howeva (Stephen A. Smith voice), last week showcased an issue that has been a problem for Purdue a couple times this season, which is Charlie Jones tunnel vision. Now, to qualify the statement, there are a lot of factors that result in this. Maybe Charlie was the only one open, maybe the other receivers struggled to get separation, etc. The fact of the matter remains, Purdue cannot beat Illinois unless AOC can get other receivers involved in the offense. I understand that a trip back to the state of Illinois is a homecoming of sorts for Charlie and Aiden (and Jack Sullivan, I did not forget about you buddy), but Aiden will have to spread the ball out. The Illinois defensive secondary has been damn good, and I imagine Kendall Smith will be cheating to Charlie’s side of the field often.
Gambling Analysis
Numbers: There is a relatively low handle of bets on this game, which would explain some of the wonky numbers. Looking at the Purdue side, it is odd to have a bet percentage versus a money percentage disparity of this much. 59% of the bets while only 15% of the money tells me that the bet handle is small enough so that a big bet on Illinois can significantly sway the money percentage, while only slightly changing the bet percentage. Even so, from a contrarian standpoint, I want to be with the side who has 15% of the money. The 85% of money on Illinois is way too much. Keep monitoring this, because these numbers will not remain the same as the game gets closer and the numbers become more consistent and clear. The total is a little more “normal”, where we had a much more realistic bet to money gap, with a little more money on the over than the bet percentage. I would be cautious relying on numbers. The one positive, for me, is that with 85% of money coming in on Illinois, we have seen zero line movement. With that much money on one side (keep in mind this is partially due to the smaller handle), we would expect the line to move to 7 or 7.5. I think Vegas wants to bait gamblers into taking 6.5. The sportsbooks have kept the line under that key number of 7, so anyone betting the game likely sees Illinois only needing to win by a touchdown. Here is to hoping this is a trap and that Illinois bettors have this sprung on them. We have seen the under move down from 46.5 to 44.5, I do believe this is likely in response to there being some wind. After last week, it is just not material enough to matter for 2 points. EDGE: Purdue spread, Over.
Trends: These are really good spots for both these teams. Brohm has a long track record of success as an away underdog, ESPECIALLY against a ranked opponent. There is so much value here when backing Brohm. On the other hand, Bret Bielema has consistently put Illinois in a position to bounce back strongly after a loss. Illinois has only one ATS loss after a loss in the prior week, and the Illini have a fairly strong ATS record in conference play. The under is a massively strong trend here with both teams typically playing a game that goes under in each respective spot. On the road, the Boiler defense typically shows up (they certainly did not against Wisconsin) and Illinois defense has really showed up after a loss. EDGE: Push on side, Under
Situation: Three weeks ago, there were grumblings that College Gameday could make its way to the University of Illinois campus to watch the Boilers and Illini battle things out to win the Big Ten West. Fast forward to an Iowa and Wisconsin loss for the Boilers, and a Michigan State loss for the Illini, and suddenly this game has lost some national appeal. Purdue, really on both sides of the ball, has not looked good in its last two games. Against Iowa, the offense failed to score double digits for the first time since 2019. On defense, the Boilers allowed struggling Wisconsin and Iowa offenses to both move the ball with relative ease. The Purdue offense has certainly lost its luster on a national perception stage, and I believe there to be some value on the Boilers offense. This is a buy low situation, we know what the offense is capable of, and after two bad weeks, I think a bounce back is due. For Illinois, their defense is rightfully perceived as elite. Illinois has found success running the ball, and Tommy DeVito has done everything Illinois has needed from him (except to beat MSU, but what are you gonna do). Five times the Illinois defense has held an opponent to single digits. 23 points to MSU last week is the most points Illinois has allowed this season. This Illinois defense is very good, but I would expect to many people banking on an Illinois defensive bounce back. The value is in the over. With Illinois still carrying a ranking, and the Boiler offense putting bad weeks up back-to-back, there is too much value here for the Boilers and over. EDGE: Purdue, Over.
Total Analysis: If you are a Purdue football player, the time is now. Your back is against the corner. Win tomorrow and everything is still pretty much in front of you. Lose, and well, let’s go bowling I guess. This is as big of a game between these two programs as I can remember. I would expect both teams to come out extremely sharp. I am worried about Purdue injuries, especially in the secondary. The Illinois QB has not been extremely explosive, but he is a tried-and-true game manager, and Purdue still found a way to make Spencer Petras look good. There is too much money on Illinois, without line movement, to allow me to take Illinois. Even though I feel like the Purdue offense will struggle against the Illinois defense, I believe that is too much of a recency bias from a perception standpoint. There is value in the over, and I will back Jeff Brohm on the road against a ranked team any chance I get.
Prediction: 24-21 Illinois.
Official Plays: Purdue +6.5, Over 44.5, sprinkle on Purdue +215. Blindly going to war for underdog Jeff Brohm against a ranked opponent. Everything says take the under, so, obviously we’re going over. AOC redemption tour time. Bonus: At a certain point, Payne Durham has to establish himself as the preseason tight end we all thought he was. I like him at 13/1 or Sheffield at 17/1 for first touchdown.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -3.5 against Illinois meaning a sportsbook would expect Illinois to lose by 3.5 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +6.5 or Illinois -6.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue by 7 or more.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Illinois beats Purdue by 1, Illinois has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
