Purdue Football "Covering The Tracks" vs. Indiana

Covering The Tracks: Indiana

Welcome to the fourth year, eleventh edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet.  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2022 Indiana Hoosiers.

Prior Week Recap

Bang!  Column goes 2-0 for the second straight week as Northwestern covers and the total stays under.  Boiler offense never seemed to really get going and a bad call on the pick six ensured a no sweat hit for both.  

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 4-7 ATS, Overs are 7-4. 

Indiana: 4-7 ATS,  Overs are 7-4.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 11/25/22:

Current spread: Purdue -10.5 (Opened Purdue -10).

Moneyline: Purdue -390, Indiana +320 

1H Spread: Purdue -6, O/U 27.5

Over/Under: 54 (Opened 55.5)

Indiana O/U: 21.5  (Over -105, Under -125)

Purdue O/U: 32.5  (Over -120, Under -110)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 56% on Purdue, 60% on over

Money: 33% on Purdue, 55% on over

Executive Summary

With a potential Big Ten championship birth on the line, all eyes will be on Iowa-Nebraska at 4pm Friday.  A Nebraska win, and Purdue could roll into Bloomington with a chance to win the West.  An Iowa win, and the Boilers are playing for a better bowl in December.  Early money is currently on IU, but there has been some number movement from as high as 11.5 and as low as 9.5.  I would expect somewhat of a public overreaction to the Bucket Game depending on what happens in Iowa Nebraska.  I like the Purdue offense to get back into form and break 30 again.

Trend Analysis for Indiana

· Purdue is 4-0 ATS against Indiana under Brohm.  Brohm is 3-1 straight up against Indiana, with the only loss coming in overtime.  Brohm has relatively dominated IU and Tom Allen.  The over has gone 3-1 as well in the series.

2021: Purdue 44-7, Purdue covered -17.5, total went over 50.5

2020: No Game (COVID)

2019: Indiana 44-41, Purdue covered  +7, total went over 56.5  

2018: Purdue 28-21, Purdue covered -3.5, total went under 65

2017: Purdue 31-24,  Purdue covered -2, total went over 51

· Purdue is 4-6 ATS as an away favorite under Brohm.  This is the first time this year Purdue has been an away favorite.

· Purdue is 16-16 ATS under Brohm when playing the week after a Boilermaker win.  The Boilers are 2-4 in this spot this year.

· The over is 3-7 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is an away favorite.  The total has gone under by an average of 5.7 points in this spot.

· In Purdue games against Big Ten opponents under Brohm, the over is 23-26-1.  The under hits in this spot by an average of .8 points.

· In Purdue games under Brohm after a win, the over is 16-16.

· Indiana is 5-12-1 ATS when the Hoosiers are a home  underdog under Tom Allen.

· Indiana is 16-12-1 ATS the week after a win under Allen.

· Indiana is 23-27-1 ATS in conference games under Allen. Indiana fails to cover in this spot by an average of 1.6 points.

· Under Allen, the total has gone over 14 times in 18 games when Indiana is a home underdog.  The over hits on average by 2.7 points.

· The over is 17-12 after an Indiana win under Allen, with the total going under on average by .9 points.  I realize this seems odd, but just goes to show, when the total has gone under, it has been by a significant margin.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Gooooooo, Biiiiiiiiiiiig, Reeeeeeeeed, GO BIG RED.  If you are a person who factors motivation into your handicapping, I certainly would not be placing a bet until at least 8:00pm tonight.  The Nebraska-Iowa game could not be bigger for the Boilers.  Nebraska wins and Purdue is an IU win away from Indianapolis.  Iowa wins, and Purdue is playing purely for bowl position.  I would be skeptical of overreaction.  IF Nebraska wins, I would assume the public probably jumps all over Purdue thinking Purdue will be motivated to kill IU.  However, IU may be just as motivated to play spoilers.  Here’s to hoping Nebraska parties like it is 2014 and the Huskers can pull out a win.

· Thank you, Aiden.  Aiden O’Connell will be making his last regular season conference start in a Boilermaker uniform.  The western Chicago walk-on has proven to be an unlikely savior for the Boilers and Jeff Brohm.  It will be interesting to see if he plays with an extra sense of emotion given the circumstances.

· WINd.  After three straight weeks of double digit wind speeds, the Boilers will have relatively great weather for Saturday with wind speeds in the single digits.  Wind has clearly hindered the offense, with the exception (kind of) of Illinois, so I would expect the passing offense to bounce back with clear air.  

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  Numbers do not look great, but the betting handle is pretty small.  We are in the midst of the greatest five-day sports period in American History.  It should be of little surprise that gamblers everywhere are not laser focused on Purdue-IU football.  With that being said, it seems there has been a small sharp buy on IU at +10.5, as evidenced by the disparity in bets placed versus the money.  I would be cautious, however, since the money on IU is getting close to that dreaded 70% threshold (however, this would be great for contrarian Purdue backers).  We also see a slight disparity in total numbers, with a little bit more of the money coming in on the under as opposed to the over.  The line movement has been interesting, with it getting as high as -11.5, and as low as -9.5.  It held at 9.5 for a little bit.  I wonder if sharps are trying to get Purdue -9.5 and then IU +11.5 and try to middle with a Purdue win by 10-11 point win.  The total has continually come down from its opening and went all the way to 52.5 before coming slightly back up.  It had held at 54 for most of the week, but just recently dipped down to the 52.5 before coming back up to 53.5.  EDGE: IU spread, Under.

Trends:  Jeff Brohm has been phenomenal against IU in his career.  He is so masterfully equipped at covering against the spread in Bucket games, that when IU had their best team of the last 25 years, he made sure COVID canceled the game (TIC).  The trends are very strong for Purdue against the Hoosiers.  Offensively, Brohm has had his way against the Hoosiers scoring at least 28 points in all four meetings.  It is worth noting, Brohm was also undefeated ATS against Iowa and that came to an end this year.  Purdue generally struggles when Purdue is a favorite.  Maybe it is a motivational issue, but if so, the Nebraska Iowa game plays an even larger part.  IU has been awful ATS at home.  In a spot like this, Purdue games have typically gone under, while IU games typically go over.  A real between a rock and a hard place situation.  The strongest trend is still Brohm’s success against IU, but Tom Allen’s motivational ability may play well with IU gaining some momentum from a big win last week.      EDGE: Purdue, Push  

Situation:  Both of these teams are coming off of wins, however, the jubilation from the wins is different for each team.  Purdue squeaked out a win against a bad Northwestern team, even though Purdue was pretty much never in fear of losing.  The effort overall, at least on offense, was fairly lackluster with only 17 points because scored, and 3 of those a direct result of the defense.  IU, on the other hand, has had a season to forget but got a very emotional overtime win against the Spartans last week.  IU has a chance to close the season out with real momentum for next season.  I would expect the public to doubt the Purdue offense, be high on the Purdue defense, and overall be ok with IU.  The situational handicapping becomes crucial based on Nebraska Iowa.  I would wholly expect a public overreaction to the result one way or other.  Wait for the line movement to come in after the game, regardless of result, and bet opposite the movement, that is where the value will lie.  EDGE: Push, Over

Total Analysis:  Once again, Purdue is playing a bad football team where they are double digit favorites.  Purdue has struggled in this spot against FAU, Northwestern, and Nebraska.  However, their only cover was another in-school state, so maybe the Boilers keep that up.  I would like to see what happens at 4:00pm today, but obviously cannot wait until after the game, so, knowing what I know now, I think the line movement tells us that Vegas is assuming a Purdue win around 10.  The short dip below 10 tells me people must have jumped on Purdue -9.5 quickly, causing the line to move back above 10.  The sportsbooks must not have liked that liability.  Purdue has been pretty good ATS on the road this season, certainly better than as a home favorite.  I do expect the offense to get back on track, and I think Aiden balls out.  Maybe the defense has a lapse or two, but overall they have been great.  Again, it is worth repeating, if Iowa wins, I would expect more people to bet on IU, and Nebraska wins, I would expect money to come in on Purdue.  

Prediction:  Purdue wins 31-21.

Official Plays: Indiana +10.5, Under 54.  Both these teams have been over machines, so I expect some regression to the mean.  In theory, Purdue should win this by 21, but I worry about the potential look ahead spot if Nebraska wins, and I cannot trust Purdue and Brohm as a double digit favorite.  I like the Boilers to win by 10, but would love it if I can get Purdue at -9.5, under that key number of 10.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -10.5 against Indiana meaning a sportsbook would expect Indiana to lose by 10.5 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -18.5 or Indiana +18.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 19 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Indiana by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Indiana has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.