Purdue-Indiana State from a betting perspective

Note: Former GoldandBlack.com student intern turned Purdue oddsmaker-guru Tyler Ochs shares his opinions and thoughts from a gambling perspective.

Prior Season Recap

Purdue finished the 2023 season 4-8 ATS, with overs going 7-5. Under Walters, Purdue was a fairly decent road team ATS but really struggled ATS at home. The schedule this season is a gauntlet, but there should be considerable value on a Purdue team that has more talent than they are given credit for. While Walters has not developed an identity from a gambling perspective like Brohm did, this season will increase the sample size and hopefully give us some more trends to work with.

Futures

For those unfamiliar, Sportsbooks put out betting lines at the start of every season for bets related to the entirety of the season.  These are known as “future bets” or “futures”.  With this being the first Covering the Tracks of the season, I wanted to list some of the Purdue-related future bets below (lines provided by FanDuel; this is not an endorsement of FanDuel; please see caveat on shopping lines below):

Purdue to win the national title: 1000-to-1

2024 Regular Season Wins: 4.5 (Over 4.5 wins +142, Under 4.5 wins -178)

Purdue to win 6 or more games: +300

Purdue to win the Big Ten: 400-to-1

Betting Numbers (AKA, the Splits)

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00am on 8/30/24:

Current spread: Purdue -33.5 (Opened Purdue -32.5).

Moneyline: Purdue N/A, ISU N/A (spread is too large, Sportsbooks not offering ML odds)

1H Spread: Purdue -17.5, O/U 26

Over/Under: 48.5 (Opened 48.5)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 39% on Purdue, 72% on over

Money: 69% on Purdue, 82% on over

Executive Summary

This is a challenging game to analyze.  Historically, Sportsbooks have been adverse to even offering a betting line in an FCS vs. FBS game.  The total amount of bets on this game are very, very low.  The betting splits, based on their extreme contrast, suggest volatile betting on a small scale.  One big bet can have a massive swing on the numbers.  If bettors are choosing a side, it seems to be over 48.5.  In only one season, Purdue has been bad as a home favorite ATS.  Will this change under Walters in year 2?  In contrast, the over has been a cash cow when the Boilers have played at home.

Trend Analysis for ISU

·Purdue is 2-5 ATS as a home team under Coach Walters.

·Purdue is 0-2 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Walters.

·Purdue is 0-1 ATS in home openers under Coach Walters.

· The over is 5-2 when Purdue is a home team under Coach Walters.

· The over is 3-0 when Purdue is a favorite under Coach Walters.

· Indiana State has not won an away game since November 12, 2022 at Western Illinois.

· In their two games against FBS opposition last year, ISU lost to IU 41-7 and Ball State 45-7.

· The last time Indiana State visited Ross-Ade Stadium, the Sycamores went back to Terre Haute with a 56-0 loss.

· Curt Mallory overall is 20-47 at ISU.  His best year came in 2018 with a 7-4 season.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Year 2.  As with any year, a lot of question marks without answers going into the year.  Will Hudson Card take the next step?  Is the O-Line really as good as expected?  How will the transfers impact the team?  Will redzone offensive efficiency improve?  How will the loss of Scourton and Burks impact this team?  All of these make it very difficult to handicap a game like this.  Now, flipside, the Sportsbooks are also not able to fully adjust.  So, if you have an edge, play it now before a correction comes.  All of this is to say, proceed with caution.

· 2nd Half Yanni.  One interesting tidbit (this is my polite way of saying: what a dumba** rule), Purdue will be without Yanni Karlaftis for the first half of the game thanks to the targeting rule.  Should this make that much of a difference?  Probably not.  But Purdue will need to adjust without a starting linebacker.

· Mountain on the Horizon.  As tough as Purdue’s schedule is, the layout could not lend itself better for the Notre Dame game.  A warmup versus an FCS opponent, followed by a bye week and then getting Notre Dame at home is as good as you could hope.  Two issues arise from a gambling standpoint.  First, how do Coach Walters and Coach Harrell approach film?  One would expect Purdue to limit their playbook to what is needed to not give Notre Dame any extra film or advantages in their preparation.  So I would expect fairly mundane play calling, unless the game becomes tight.  This segways into point two.  Will Purdue players be able to keep their focus on the task at hand with the top 10 Fighting Irish visiting in two weeks.  It was almost 11 years ago that Purdue needed a Ricardo Allen interception to seal a 20-14 win over the Sycamores.  Both programs are significantly different from the September 2013 meeting, but this could become a trap game of sorts, especially with such a big game coming up.  

Gambling Analysis

Numbers:  The numbers are, unfortunately, about as reliable as Jeff Brohm covering as a big home favorite.  There is just not a huge handle due to the matchup with an FCS school.  The numbers suggest the only people betting on this game are, unsurprisingly, Purdue and ISU fans.  There is maybe a contrarian edge to the under, if anything.  The 48.5 seems to be a carrot on a stick of sorts.  49 is a pretty common football number as a multiple of 7.  So, Sportsbooks holding at 48.5 to me suggests they are daring people to take the over.  With uncertainty at kicker for Purdue, would a missed PAT be that surprising?  Additionally, holding ISU to two fields goals and scoring 42 would keep this game under as well.  Those are the two most likely scenarios.  EDGE: Under

Trends: Unfortunately, as with an FCS school, the trends are not super helpful.  ISU has no ATS trends, so we can only go off full game results.  Purdue has been bad ATS under Walters at home, but we only have one season as a sample size (Also Walters first year as a head coach, period).  The trends would therefore suggest ISU.  Overs had a lot of success at Ross Ade last year.  Trends would suggest this the play as well.  However, once again, I must caution that without trends from ISU, and with only a year of sample, take these lightly.   EDGE: ISU, Over.

Situation:  Nothing like the first article of the season being jam packed with information… not a whole lot of situational edge.  If anything, one would expect the public to back the FBS team.  Early on in the season, sharp bettors have had a really good season.  This is atypical.  Normally, public bettors have found success to start the CFB season.  Georgia Tech and NDSU were both massive covers for Sportsbooks (and for you tennis fans, the books got PAID with Alcarez losing last night).  Will the books give some of this back this weekend?  I am not sure.  I can tell you closer to game time, books will want the ISU cover.   EDGE: None.

Total Analysis:  With not much information available, bias says take Purdue.  The biggest questions for me, how much of the playbook does Graham Harrell want to flash and does Purdue take their foot off the gas.  It also does not help that Purdue will be without some of these new Georgia transfers.  I would expect Purdue to really establish the running game and some clock to chew.  The 33.5 could also be bait to take 34, but I am comfortable with that.  If the defense has improved, there should be no problem holding an ISU team to under 10.  Then, it is up to the offense to produce.  I do not see the playbook opening up much, and I would expect Purdue to take care of business, head into the bye week and prepare for Notre Dame.  No player props for this game, but I would expect a feast from Mockabee and the defense gets one.

Prediction:  Purdue wins 41-7.

Official Plays: 1 Unit Purdue -33.5. 1 Unit Under 48.5.  I also will probably take Purdue live over team points at some point if offered.  Purdue should score on its scripted first drive, but I would not be surprised to see a little rust on drives 2 and 3 before putting up more points.  In the event of books offering first touchdown prior to game time (I doubt it) Shamar Rigby value should be insane, with Mockabee likely the favorite. 

Bonus Bets:  N/A.

Welcome to the 2024 first edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of`content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook.  Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet (For those unfamiliar, not every sportsbook offers the same odds, you may get better odds on a bet with FanDuel as opposed to Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc).  Disclaimer for those who do gamble: make sure to bankroll manage effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   For this week, we look at the 2024 ISU Sycamores.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -33.5 against ISU meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 33.5 points.  It is worth noting, the sportsbooks are in the money making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 or IU +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by 5 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats ISU by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sportsbook are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means, either way; the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.