Purdue Basketball Game 26 Preview: Northwestern

EVANSTON, Ill. – Top-ranked Purdue begins a two-game road trip Sunday when the Boilermakers visit upstart Northwestern at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Purdue rebounded after its loss to Indiana to finally put away Iowa, despite 12 second-half turnovers that kept the game interesting. The Boilermakers can take another step in wrapping up the Big Ten title since they hold a three-game lead in the loss column with six to play. The Wildcats are one of the better stories in the conference, currently sharing third place with Illinois. Indiana sits alone in second place at 9-5.

Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena

When: Sunday 2 p.m. ET

TV: BTN

Radio: Purdue Sports Network (WAZY locally)

In-game updates: GoldandBlack.com | Twitter @mike_carmin

ABOUT THE TEAMS

Purdue: Roster | Schedule | Stats

Northwestern: Roster | Schedule | Stats

NUMBERS AND SUCH

Team	AP	Coaches	NET	KenPom	KenPom Win%
Purdue	1	1	4	5	67%
Northwestern	–	–	49	51	33%

ON PURDUE (23-2, 12-2 B1G)

• One of the top balanced offensive performances was on display in the win over Iowa as five Boilermakers reached double figures with Zach Edey needing 10 points in the final eight minutes to join the scoring party. Mason Gillis and Caleb Furst combined for 21; Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer totaled 41. Purdue will win a lot of games with those numbers.

• The Boilermakers continue to pound opponents on the boards. They’re +66 during the last four games, including outrebounding the Hawkeyes by 20, matching a season high against a Big Ten team. Purdue leads the nation in offensive rebounds and has been stellar on the defensive end, holding its last five opponents to a total of 27 offensive rebounds. That limits the second-chance opportunities and forces teams to be sharp on the offensive end or figure out how to score in transition, something Indiana did last week.

• The concern moving forward is the turnovers. Iowa’s press has bothered the Boilermakers for several years and Thursday’s second-half performance wasn’t a complete surprise. But the trend line needs to change. That’s 33 turnovers in the last two games, leading to a combined 34 points for Indiana and Iowa. Purdue is just giving away points. Not every team can press the Boilermakers like the Hawkeyes but it doesn’t mean they’re not going to try and disrupt them by bringing pressure and trying to rattle the freshmen guards.

• When the Boilermakers wrap up the Big Ten title, can they stay sharp during the final stretch heading into the conference and NCAA tournaments? The good news is Purdue will have a chance to relax a little bit but there’s plenty to play for even with the regular-season championship already secured. Also, the teams left on the schedule are desperate either trying to crack the top four in the standings or present a better case for the NCAA tournament.

PROJECTED PURDUE LINEUPS

Starters

Center — 15 Zach Edey (7-4, 290, Junior)

Although the projected National Player of the Year didn’t score a lot of points during the first 32 minutes of Thursday’s win, his fingerprints were all over the box score. Five blocked shots. Four assists. Another double-figure rebounding game. His defensive presence around the rim scared Iowa’s guards from shooting inside the paint. The Wildcats will face a similar dilemma.

Forward— 1 Caleb Furst (6-10, 230, Sophomore)

Good to see the 2021 Indiana Mr. Basketball enjoy a breakout game, including chasing down an early rebound to keep the possession alive. Posted his first double-double since the Dec. 17 win against Davidson in Indianapolis. Plateaued a little during the recent stretch but should carry plenty of confidence into the rest of the season.

Guard — 3 Braden Smith (6-0, 180, Freshman)

Smith was magical during parts of Thursday’s win, dribbling and weaving through Iowa’s defense with ease. His stop-and-go moves had the Hawkeyes a step behind. The early baskets allowed his confidence to grow from the beginning and that mindset carried him and his teammates to the finish line. Turnovers became an issue in the second half, but Smith settled down at the right time.

Guard — 2 Fletcher Loyer (6-4, 185, Freshman)

Combined with Smith to make sure the Boilermakers started fast against the Hawkeyes. Took advantage once again from the double teams inside and had plenty of open looks on the perimeter. Impressed by how Loyer creates shooting space on the perimeter against defenders.

Guard/Forward — 25 Ethan Morton (6-7, 215, Junior)

Continues to chase around the top perimeter threat, using his size and athletic ability to disrupt timing. Morton will likely deal with two of the better guards in the Big Ten – Boo Buie and Chase Audige – throughout Sunday’s game. Both can penetrate and get to the basket but will launch long 3-pointers.

Rotational Reserves

Forward — 0 Mason Gillis (6-6, 230, Junior)

When Gillis and Furst are hitting 3-pointers, the offense becomes nearly unstoppable.

Guard — 14 David Jenkins Jr. (6-1, 200, Senior)

Was 0 of 4 from 3-point range against Iowa but still on a solid shooting streak.

Guard — 5 Brandon Newman (6-5, 200, Junior)

Tied a season low after playing four minutes Thursday. Needs to find his role to contribute heading into the postseason.

Forward/Center — 4 Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 225, Redshirt Freshman)

As Edey’s backup, will see opportunities to help the Boilermakers hold serve with the big man on the bench.

Guard/Forward — 11 Brian Waddell (6-8, 195, Redshirt Freshman)

Note: Freshman center Will Berg and wing Camden Heide will redshirt this season.

ON NORTHWESTERN (17-7, 8-5 B1G)

• The Wildcats have accumulated impressive Big Ten road victories. They’re riding a two-game winning streak after winning at Wisconsin and Ohio State. They own victories at Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana. But the upcoming three-game stretch – home games against Purdue, Indiana and Iowa – will define the season. Most projections have Northwestern sliding into the No. 8-9 range in the standings but two wins over the next three games keep it in play for a top-four finish.

• Sunday closes out a 16-day stretch where the Wildcats will play six games due to a COVID-19 pause. The compact schedule could play a factor at some point since coach Chris Collins doesn’t use a lot of depth.

• One reason for Northwestern’s surge deals with its defense. The Wildcats ranked No. 212 in defensive effective field goal% and No. 73 in defensive efficiency last season, according to KenPom.com. This year, Northwestern is No. 71 and No. 29, respectively, in both categories. The addition of Chris Lowery, a longtime assistant at Kansas State, and head coach at Southern Illinois, has brought a renewed defensive approach to the program. And it’s paying off as NU has held 11 opponents to fewer than 60 points and the Wildcats rank second in steals among conference teams. Lowery took over for Matt Painter at Southern Illinois and had a long run leading the program. He also worked for former Purdue assistant Bruce Weber at Southern Illinois, Kansas State and Illinois. The Boilermakers will likely see some familiar schemes on Sunday.

PROJECTED NORTHWESTERN LINEUPS

Forward — 31 Robbie Beran (6-9, 215, Sr.)

Enjoying a solid season as the team’s third-leading scorer behind Buie and Audige. Totaled eight points, and four rebounds in the win at Ohio State, nearly matching his season averages. Likely to help double-team Edey in the post.

Center — 34 Matthew Nicholson (7-0, 255, Jr.)

Not a big offensive threat as Nicholson has reached double figures once this season and is shooting less than 50% from the free throw line. Leads the Wildcats in rebounding but will battle Edey for the boards.

Guard — 0 Boo Buie (6-2, 180, Sr.)

One of the top guards in the Big Ten will create problems. He’s scored 20 or more points in seven of NU’s 13 conference games. Had 19 in Thursday’s win at Ohio State. Buie is deadly from the line, hitting 89.9% (62 of 69) in conference action. One of three players in the Big Ten to lead his team in points and assists.

Guard — 1 Chase Audige (6-0, 200, RS Sr.)

The second member of NU’s dynamic backcourt. Made just 3 of 12 shots against the Buckeyes but finished with 12 points, thanks to three 3-pointers. Audige is extremely active defensively, averaging a Big Ten-best 2.5 steals in conference games. The Wildcats will pounce on the careless mistakes.

Forward — 3 Ty Berry (6-3, 185, Jr.)

Is also active on the defensive end, averaging nearly two steals. His shooting has fallen off since scoring 26 points in January against Nebraska. Berry is 6 of 24, including 3 of 16, in the last five games. Made 38% from 3-point range last season but has dipped to 30.8% this year.

Bench

Guard – 13 Brooks Barnhizer (6-6, 215, So.)

The Lafayette Jeff graduate is coming off a career-high 19 points at Ohio State, giving the Wildcats help off the bench. He’s playing solid defense and rebounding well, earning more playing time.

Forward – 2 Nick Martinelli (6-7, 200, First year)

Played double-digit minutes in five of the last six games.

Forward – 10 Tydus Verhoeven (6-9, 235, Grad)

Oldest player on the roster at 24 after transferring from UTEP. He started his career at Duquesne.

LIGHTNING-ROUND TAKES

• Don’t see the Wildcats keeping up with the Boilermakers on the boards. Purdue has been solid in this area all season.

• Can the Boilermakers keep up their hot shooting pace? They’ve shot 50% or better in five straight Big Ten games for the first time since 1990.

PREDICTION: PURDUE 71, NORTHWESTERN 64

The Boilermakers put their 11-game winning streak in the series on the line, looking to move closer to winning the Big Ten title. In 2019, Purdue clinched a share of the conference championship inside Welsh-Ryan Arena but that scenario can’t play out Sunday. Need to see the Boilermakers play a clean game after back-to-back high-turnover outings against Indiana and Iowa. The Wildcats don’t have the personnel to match up with Edey, creating a similar situation to Iowa where Purdue’s perimeter shooters will have plenty of good looks.