SMU at Nevada game preview, predictions

The time has finally come for what feels like the biggest SMU football season in recent history.

While it is still a month before the Mustangs play an ACC contest, they take the field as a member for the first time on Saturday night in Reno. SMU and Nevada kick off at 7 p.m. CT on the CBS Sports Network.

The Mustangs are coming off an 11-win season, winning an outright conference title for the first time in 40 years. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack are coming off a 2-10 campaign and have made a coaching change and several roster additions.

The all-time series is tied 3-3 with SMU winning each of the last two meetings, including the 2009 Hawaii Bowl.

SMU Trends

The defense was the surprise story of the 2023 season and it has a chance to be even better this season. The Mustangs were Top 10 in four categories, another four in the Top 20 and three more in the Top 35, that included tying for first in defensive touchdowns with five, third in sacks with 3.4 per game, 11th in scoring defense, 12th in total defense and 13th in pass defense.

Meanwhile, the offense got better as the season went on. SMU returns its Top 7 pass catchers from last season led by Jake Bailey (42-258), RJ Maryland (34-518, 7 TDs) and Jordan Hudson (30-425, 7 TDs). Jaylan Knighton (136-745, 7 TDs) and LJ Johnson (108-576, 4 TDs) are also back after leading the team in rushing last year. The Mustangs did lose Camar Wheaton to a season-ending injury, but did add Brashard Smith through the portal for a boost in the backfield.

Preston Stone edged out Kevin Jennings for the starting job after starting all 12 regular season games last season. Stone threw for 3,197 yards and 28 touchdowns with six interceptions in his first full season.

Stone, Jennings, Justin Osborne, Kobe Wilson, Jonathan McGill and Elijah Roberts were named the captains for the 2024 season.

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Nevada Trends

Following a two-win season last year, the Wolf Pack made a coaching change to bring in former Texas defensive coordinator Jeff Choate. Before going to Texas, Choate was the head coach at Montana State for four seasons, including a trip to the FCS national semifinals.

Nevada brought in 20 transfers this offseason, including three from Texas and another 13 from power conference programs.

Returning quarterback Brendon Lewis beat out Nebraska transfer Chubba Purdy for the starting job. Purdy is also dealing with an injury suffered during fall camp. Choate noted that Lewis did not throw an interception during camp after throwing six a season ago. Lewis rushed for more touchdowns (4) than he threw (2) last year.

Sean Dollars was the leading rusher a season ago with 527 yards and six touchdowns and was named to the Doak Walker Award Watch List. He’s joined by a pair of new additions in Savion Red (Texas) and Patrick Garwo (Boston College).

One of the biggest defensive transfer additions is a familiar face. Henry Ikahihifo played at Nevada for two seasons, left and is back. The 6-foot-2, 240-pound lineman plays the Jack position in the Wolf Pack defense. The secondary also got a much-needed overhaul.

Quotable

“It’s a team that we’ve got to make them earn it. They thrive on explosive plays, that gets them into their tempo offense. They’ve got an offensive-minded head coach and they’re dangerous, they’re a very dangerous football team. They’re a Power 5 football team that’s resting just outside the Top 25 and I’m sure they want to make a statement early on in the season to put them in position to make some noise down the stretch. … I think (the defense) is very underrated. I think this is a really good outfit. They were Top 12 in scoring defense a year ago. They don’t return quite as many starters, but they may have added more pieces through the portal than they had to on offense. Their defensive line is active and very talented. I think that’s the best unit on the defense. They have athletic linebackers and they have good skill on the back end. I love the way these guys play defense.” — Nevada head coach Jeff Choate on facing SMU

“I expect us to go out and be mature and be ready to play and be prepared. That’s what we’ve talked about this week. Everybody has a first game. Everybody has first game jitters and we’re going to make mistakes and we’re going to do some things. We’re going to make adjustments in game to find a way to win the game, but everybody’s got to do it. We want to be the most prepared team in the country for our first game, whatever that looks like. I think our staff and our team has done a nice job the first two years we were ready to play both of our first games, but none of that helps us this Saturday. I thought we started well last year against La Tech. Hopefully we can have a similar start this year. But going on the road, new staff, new everything for that opponent, an opponent that’s used to winning, playing in the altitude, all those things, it’s a great challenge for us to get our season started.” — SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee on Game 1 expectations.

SMU must …

Be itself. There will be first game jitters. There will be a lot of unknowns with Nevada bringing in a new staff and new players. But the Mustangs will have to put blinders on and play their game. Establish the run game, get in a rhythm in the pass game and then get big plays out of it.

Part of that will come down to the offensive line. Position changes, injuries and shuffling have left question marks. That unit will have to come together to prove it can get the job done in the running game and to protect Stone.

The defense will have to corral a dual-threat quarterback in Lewis and slow down a quality back in Dollars. It also has to prove last year wasn’t a one-hit wonder after last year’s big turnaround.

There are key returners at all three levels along with some new pieces that will be eager to make a good impression in their SMU debuts.

Nevada must …

Get its offense going. Scoring was an issue last season as the Wolf Pack averaged just 17.3 points per game, tying for 124th out of 130 FBS teams. All six of Lewis’ interceptions came in the first six games of the season, including two in back-to-back games. But he did not throw one over the final six games of the season. In that same span he didn’t throw for a touchdown either.

A balanced attack with Lewis and Dollars running and the pass game will be necessary to keep the SMU defense from keying on one aspect.

Meanwhile, the defense will have to limit the big play. If Nevada can force the Mustangs to go on long drives, especially in the first game of the season, there is hope to get off the field without giving up points. But big plays can turn a close game into a runaway in a hurry.

Predictions

Billy Embody: SMU is the more talented and experienced team in this one. After a strong season last year with a nasty end, the Mustangs are ready to get back on the winning side. The defense dominates and the offense makes play. What we’ll be asking is what little things need cleaning up after a dominant showing. SMU 45, Nevada 10

Kevin Lonnquist: I’ve seen this scenario play out a zillion times when a power conference team goes on the road to a G5 team. Last one I covered was Baylor at Texas State in 2021. It was choppy for a while as the crowd had the rarity of a big-time opponent in town and the Bobcats fired their best shot. Baylor won 29-20. I expect some of that from the Wolfpack. If SMU doesn’t get in its own way and help UNR – that’s what us Las Vegas residents use to call it – the Mustangs should be fine, altitude notwithstanding. No deviation from my WWHT prediction. Separation comes in the third quarter. SMU 38, Nevada 17

Dean Ralsky: Nevada had a bottom 20 offense and defense in the country during the 2023 season. Although the defense is likely to improve from last year with new head coach Jeff Choate at the helm, the improvements won’t come as soon as Week 0. I expect the SMU offense to roll and the defense to be dominant against the inexperienced Wolf Pack. SMU 41, Nevada 10

Hayden Howerton: First game of the year jitters are a real thing and Week 0 provides its own challenges. Nevada is looking to show signs of improvement with new head coach, Jeff Choate, after a 2-10 campaign in 2023. But I believe the Ponies are more than ready to take the first step towards their ultimate goal of winning a championship in the ACC. The only thing I see that could potentially slow this team down is the elevation and climate of the desert, but SMU will have more than enough gas in the tank to get it done. SMU 45, Nevada 14