SMU-BYU game preview, predictions

SMU will take on BYU in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC. The Mustangs are looking to grab their first ever win over the Cougars in the fourth game of the series.

SMU closed the regular season with a win over Memphis while BYU earned a win over Stanford. Both teams enter the game at 7-5 and had strong months of November.

Now, onto the final game preview of the 2022 season for the Mustangs.

SMU trends…

The Mustangs held on to earn a win over Memphis on Senior Day in Ford Stadium to cap a 3-1 run in November. The Mustangs went 5-2 over their last seven games after starting 2-3. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai is playing his final game for SMU Football, but will do so without wideouts Rashee Rice and Dylan Goffney. Offensive lineman Jaylon Thomas is also out for the Mustangs as he joined Rice in recovering from injuries.

SMU ran the ball well down the stretch in the season with Tyler Lavine carrying the load. If the Mustangs can continue that success, that’ll be big to take the load off the passing game. Factor in TJ McDaniel, Camar Wheaton and Velton Gardner expected to be available, that’s a full stable. Tight end RJ Maryland is also looking to put the finishing touches on a Freshman All-American type season.

Overall, it’s an SMU team that’s been competitive in almost every game and I don’t expect that to change. The Mustangs heard from Mordecai before practice on Tuesday on the importance of this bowl game. If that post-practice speech hit home, SMU will have a good chance to start well and grab a bowl victory.

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BYU trends…

BYU is a program that’s been in transition to an extent with coaching changes and transfers, but make no mistake, the Cougars are a physical football team that is capable of beating the Mustangs. Cade Fennegan, a Dallas native, will see his first action of the 2022 season as the expected starting quarterback for BYU. The Cougars also have Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters and Nick Billoups who could see action in the game at quarterback.

The ground game is a staple for BYU with Chris Brooks leading the way. He rushed for 164 yards against Stanford while Hinckley Ropati added 85 yards and a 43-yard touchdown on nine carries against the Cardinal. Wideout Gunner Romney is done with his BYU playing days, which mean SMU must turn its attention to Puka Nacua, who is battling through an injury. Keanu Hill and Kody Epps are two players to keep an eye on as well in the pass game.

BYU’s defense will have a new play caller as the program parted ways with Ilaisa Tuiaki. The Cougars have some graduate assistants coaching up multiple positions on the team for the bowl game. Defensively, BYU struggled for much of the season, ranking No. 98 in total defense. It’s also one of the worst teams defending in the redzone. Team captain and linebacker Keenan Pili is out for the game and the Cougars are thin at linebacker. SMU has the offensive firepower to put stress on the BYU defense, but the Cougars still drop eight at times, which means Mordecai will have to stay patient back there.

Quotable…

“You look at it, think of all the great quarterbacks and teams that win in the NFL in January — Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen — they play at home and they play when it’s 20 degrees and you can see their breath and they play really good. It’s football, cold weather’s a part of it. Yes, they play in altitude and cold weather more than we do, we’ve got to be ready for it and embrace it and not let it bother us.” -Rhett Lashlee on the elements SMU and BYU will face.

SMU must…

Take care of the football. It’s a broken record, but it’s true. When SMU does that, it wins. Mordecai’s playing in his final game as a Mustang and will look to go out with a bang. The Mustangs have their full complement of running backs for this one and with the cold weather, they’d be wise to pound the rock. Getting a strong ground game going will take pressure off an SMU offense without Goffney and Rice.

Predictions…

SMU is looking to win its first bowl game since 2012. For both teams, it’s a matter of who shows up. The Mustangs are looking to build off a strong finish to the regular season, ending a run of poor finishes in November. Now, they’re looking to do the same with bowl games. I’ll take the Mustangs being able to move the ball enough to take this win, but it won’t be easy. SMU 38, BYU 31.

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