SMU vs. Oklahoma game preview, predictions

SMU Football takes its first road trip of the 2023 season on Saturday when the Mustangs travel to Norman, Okla. to face the Oklahoma Sooners. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. CT on ESPN+.

The Mustangs are 1-5-1 all-time against the Sooners. Oklahoma has won the last four meetings in the series, including the last time the teams met on Sept. 16, 1995, a 24-10 win for OU in Norman. 

Now onto the 2023 matchup between the Mustangs and Sooners…

SMU trends…

SMU’s coming off an impressive Week 1 showing against Louisiana Tech, 38-14. Quarterback Preston Stone tossed three touchdowns while the Mustangs also got over the 200-yard mark rushing. The game was never in doubt, which is the sign of a good win against an inferior opponent.

SMU has to put together an entire game to beat the Sooners. Rhett Lashlee’s team didn’t do that against the Bulldogs, getting outscored 14-7 in the 2nd half. The offense wasn’t particularly crisp in the 2nd half, but they did have their moments.

Overall, it was the defense that stole the show in Week 1, notching seven sacks and double-digit tackles for loss. SMU’s secondary was much improved thanks to a dominant defensive line. Kicker Colin Rogers is looking to bounce back after missing two of three field goals last week.

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Oklahoma trends…

Oklahoma scored on each of its first 11 possessions (10 touchdowns) in a 73-0 home win over Arkansas State. That included a 82-yard punt return for a touchdown as well. The Sooners were clearly the better team, playing just about everyone in their season opener.

OU’s .909 completion percentage (30 of 33) against Arkansas State set a school record. Redshirt senior Dillon Gabriel was 19 for 22 for 308 yards and two touchdowns in one half of action.

The Sooners were able to shut down any opportunities for the Red Wolves, which did put together some good drives here and there. Arkansas State was held to just 208 total yards and 10 first downs. Meanwhile, the Sooners racked up 642 total yards. It was a non-competitive game, but a terrific first game for an Oklahoma team coming off a very average season.

Quotable…

“So we, in Week 1, we played the No. 1 best pass defense in the history of the world and then now we’re playing a team that’s given up zero points a game, so that’s a tough early schedule. OU is very good, they’re well coached, they do a lot. They’re incredibly multiple in what it is that they do. They play a lot of guys. You can tell that they know what’s going on. If you’re not careful self scouting, what it is we do offensively, they’re really big into tendencies. They do a great job of preparing from that standpoint. And if you expose yourself at all, then they’ll take advantage of that.” -SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods.

“They’ve seen a lot. We’re not trying to trick anybody, but they’re going to have a tough mindset to ‘em, and they’re going to be excited to come compete. We’re not going to sneak up on anybody. So, they have a group of guys that have played a lot of ball, seen a lot of stuff, and they want to make a name for themselves. I expect their best, and I expect our guys’ best as well.” -Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables on SMU’s offense.

SMU must…

Finish in the redzone. The Mustangs missed two field goals last week as well, which is a concern. Overall though when SMU’s not been able to get it done on the road against strong opponents, there have been redzone issues. When the Mustangs do get opportunities in the redzone, they have to finish. It’s that simple.

Predictions…

SMU isn’t going to be a pushover with the depth and talent the team now has. If the Mustangs play turnover free and capitalize on opportunities, they’ll have a chance to knock off the Sooners. If not, OU will likely be able to control this one and come away with the win. I could see a world where SMU grabs the win. This team looks different enough defensively to make it happen. Still, I can’t predict the Mustangs to grab this one until they prove they can. Oklahoma 38, SMU 27.