Analyzing the path forward for South Carolina baseball

Mark Kingston said a few weeks ago people come to South Carolina to play in what he called “pennant games.” Those are the games with stakes, whether vying to make the postseason or playing in it.

Well, South Carolina players will certainly have their fill of those over the final month of the season.

The Gamecocks are back into the middle of the pack in the SEC with a sweep over Alabama and have an accessible path to the NCAA Tournament if they finish strong down the stretch.

“Now is the time to focus on the next day’s practice, focus on going 1-0 on the days you play. Our guys know what’s necessary. We’re not going to belabor the point to them. We talked about it along the way,” Mark Kingston said. “Knowing that, you just get back to work.”

As of right now, the Gamecocks are 9-12 in the SEC, tied for eighth in the SEC with Alabama—a team they just swept—and Mississippi State.

According to Kendall Rogers, South Carolina would be the No. 8 seed at the moment with nine league games left to play. The Gamecocks would be playing Mississippi State in the first round if things stay status quo.

This last weekend’s sweep over the Crimson Tide put the Gamecocks in a much better position to make the league tournament.

While incredibly minuscule, the Gamecocks do have a tough but navigable path to an NCAA Regional.

It would require winning their three remaining midweek games, all at home, against NC A&T, USC Upstate and Charlotte. NC A&T currently ranks No. 246 in the RPI, Upstate 146 and Charlotte 79.

Where things are tough is in SEC play. The Gamecocks will likely be favorites against Kentucky, their final home series. They’ll need to win that series, and a sweep would give them, at minimum, 12 SEC wins.

That would mean stitching together three wins over their two road series at Texas A&M and Florida to end the regular season.

The Aggies are playing arguably their best baseball of the year, up to No. 12 in the RPI and inside both D1Baseball’s and Baseball America’s rankings.

They’re winners of seven of their last 10 and have won their last four SEC series: Kentucky, at Georgia, Arkansas and at Vanderbilt.

A win in College station plus a sweep over Kentucky and a series win over Florida would get the Gamecocks to that magic number of 15 SEC wins.

“It’s pretty common knowledge in the SEC .500 generally gets you in the tournament in our league,” Kingston said. “We haven’t belabored the point a whole lot. They know if you can get enough wins in our league, you generally get in the NCAA Tournament.”

That, mixed with going 3-0 in midweeks would put South Carolina at 31-23 overall and 15-15 in the SEC. A win or two in the SEC Tournament could also help.

The issue becomes having to do it on the road against A&M and Florida. The Gamecocks are just 2-10 on the road this year compared to 18-9 at home.

“The fact of the matter is we’ve really struggled on the road this year. Two of our next three series are on the road,” Andrew Eyster said. “Essentially we need to double the amount of road wins we have the whole season over the next three weekends. This weekend was a great way to start off a hot streak like that.”

South Carolina’s RPI of 64 is not NCAA Tournament worthy, but would continuously creep up if they finish strong.

While navigable, it’s going to be incredibly tough. The Gamecocks should make the league tournament but could enter that week in Hoover with work to do.

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