Brian Edwards' Best Bets: South Carolina wager, college football selections

Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.

South Carolina (1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) has dropped back-to-back games going into Saturday’s Week 4 home game vs. Charlotte. As of late Wednesday, most books had the Gamecocks listed as 22-point favorites with a total of 68. The 49ers were +2100 (or 21/1, risk $100 to win $2,100) on the money line.

For first-half wagers, USC was installed as a 13-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 34.5. The Gamecocks were seven-point favorites (for a +115 payout) with a total of 14 for first-quarter bets.

During Shane Beamer’s two-year tenure, USC is 3-1 ATS in four games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Charlotte (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) has struggled to a 5-9 ATS record in 14 games as a road underdog during Will Healy’s four years at the helm.

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However, the 49ers thrived in that role last week by capturing a 42-41 win at Georgia St. as 20-point road underdogs. Star senior quarterback Chris Reynolds, who had missed the previous 2.5 games after getting injured in the first half of a season-opening loss at Florida Atlantic, connected on 31-of-43 throws for 401 yards and five touchdowns compared to only one interception, including the game-winning TD pass with just 17 seconds left.

Healy’s team came back alive offensively last week, but it is still ranked dead last (No. 131 out of 131 FBS teams) in total defense, surrendering 565.5 yards per game. The 49ers are No. 128 in pass defense, No. 129 versus the run and No. 129 in scoring ‘D’ (45.3 points per game).

Forget about USC being shut down offensively by top-ranked Georgia. The Gamecocks have plenty of playmakers like QB Spencer Rattler, WR Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells, RB Marshawn Lloyd, TE Austin Stogner and others who should feast on a Charlotte defense that’s allowed at least 41 points in seven consecutive games dating back to last season.

Charlotte’s last two games have had 49 and 41 combined points at halftime. Therefore, we like ‘over’ 34.5 points in the first half.

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Other Week 4 College Football Picks

Arkansas +2 vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, Texas): This is my favorite play of Week 4. The wrong team is favored here. In fact, I think the Razorbacks are poised to put a double-digit victory on their bitter SEC West rivals.

We have a healthy advantage at the QB position with KJ Jefferson compared to Max Johnson. Jefferson is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 770 yards with a 6/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 169 rushing yards and three TDs.

Arkansas RB Rocket Sanders is fourth in the nation in rushing yards (440) and second in yards from scrimmage per game (185.7 YPG). Look for him to have another outstanding performance against a Texas A&M run defense that’s ranked No. 83 nationally.

Texas A&M has a pedestrian offense that’s ranked No. 109 in total yards, No. 99 in passing yards, No. 113 in rushing yards and No. 110 in scoring (20.7 PPG).

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North Carolina -1 vs. Notre Dame: UNC (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is in the favorable spot coming off an open date with two weeks to prepare. The Tar Heels also have double revenge on their minds for motivation after losing to Notre Dame in back-to-back seasons.

They’re also poised to get star WR Josh Downs back in the lineup. He has missed the last two games after hauling in two TD catches in a Week Zero win over Florida A&M. In 2021, Downs had 101 receptions for 1,335 yards and eight TDs on his way to garnering third-team All-American honors.

Even without Downs for two of his first three career starts, redshirt freshman QB Drake Maye has been nothing short of spectacular to date. He has completed 74.2 percent of his passes for 930 yards with an 11/1 TD-INT ratio. Maye also has 146 rushing yards, one TD and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average.

We’ll certainly acknowledge UNC’s struggles defensively, but Notre Dame (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) is dealing with its own issues on the offensive side of the ball. The Fighting Irish are ranked No. 113 nationally in total offense, No. 107 in passing yards, No. 103 in rushing yards and No. 116 in scoring (18.3 PPG).

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Clemson -7 at Wake Forest: Dabo Swinney’s squad has won 13 games in a row over Wake Forest. Twelve of the 13 wins have been by margins of 14 points or more, including 10 straight. Ten of the 13 wins have been by at least 20 points.

The Demon Deacons generated only 21 rushing yards on 26 attempts in last week’s 37-36 win over Liberty. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of effectively running the ball against Clemson’s stout defensive front.

I think RB Will Shipley provides enough offense for the Tigers to win by at least 14 points – yet again.

Florida +10.5 at Tennessee: The Gators are 16-1 in the last 17 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, winning 11 of those games by double-digit margins. They’ve won five in a row over the Volunteers by an average margin of 20.0 PPG.

If Pitt QB Kedon Slovis didn’t get injured late in the first half of Tennessee’s overtime win over the Panthers two weeks ago, I believe Pitt would’ve defeated UT and there would be a completely different narrative about this game. Other than the OT win at Pitt, the Vols have beaten up on two of the nation’s worst teams in Ball St. and Akron.

The line for UF at UT in Games of the Year over the summer ranged from UT -4 to -5.5. With Florida QB Anthony Richardson struggling in back-to-back games, this number has surprisingly soared into double digits.

Although Tennessee star WR Cedric Tillman is officially listed as ‘questionable’ (ankle) and hasn’t been ruled ‘out’ yet, my sources in Knoxville tell me that he won’t be in uniform Saturday afternoon. Tillman, who was a second-team All-SEC selection in 2021 when he had 64 catches for 1,081 yards and 12 TDs, already has 17 receptions for 246 yards and one TD through three games.

Vanderbilt at Alabama ‘Over’ 34 points in the first half: I have zero doubt that Alabama will have at least 35 points on its own by halftime. The Commodores have faced soft competition, but they’re still ranked No. 102 nationally in total defense and No. 109 versus the pass.

Vandy isn’t going to get blanked, either. True freshman QB AJ Swann has six TD passes without an interception and WR Will Sheppard has 23 catches for 313 yards and seven TDs.

The ‘over’ is 4-0 for Vandy with its combined scores getting to 73, 73, 70 and 66 points. I also like ‘over’ 58.5 points for the game, but for a smaller amount than the first-half play. That’s because Nick Saban tends to hit the brakes offensively in lopsided games, but we know Alabama’s offense will have all of its starters on the field in the first half.

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