Brian Edwards' Best Bets: South Carolina wager, college football selections

Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.

South Carolina (3-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) covered the spread in last week’s 50-10 win over South Carolina St., as most books closed the Gamecocks as 39.5-point home favorites. Luke Doty’s 14-yard touchdown run with only 1:46 remaining provided the spread cover and sent the 60 combined points ‘over’ the 57-point total.

The ‘over’ improved to 3-2 overall for USC. Now the Gamecocks jump back into SEC play searching for their first win at Kentucky. They lost 44-30 at Arkansas in Week 2 before a 48-7 home loss to Georgia.

As of early Wednesday, most betting shops had Kentucky (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) installed as a 10.5-point home favorite with a total of 49. The Wildcats were 6.5-point favorites in the first half with a total of 24.5. USC was +260 on the money line in the first half and +310 to win the game outright.

By early Wednesday night as I was working on this column, I noticed a few books had moved to 10 and there were a couple of 9.5’s available. A few minutes later, I received a text from a friend from within the gambling community that said, “There’s a chance Will Levis doesn’t play Saturday.”

I asked if it was an issue unrelated to the dislocated finger Levis sustained on his non-throwing hand or if it was something else? My friend responded, “I wasn’t told the reason. I assumed it was his hand, but I guess it’s possible that it’s something else.”

Levis played through the finger injury during last week’s 22-19 loss at Ole Miss, although he did cough up a pair of fumbles in the red zone during the final four minutes. Whatever the case, I went about finishing this column.

Just as I had finished re-reading the column and was about to hit ‘send’ on an e-mail to ‘Shoe,’ I quickly glanced at my live odds to see if the line had moved off 9.5 or 10. I immediately knew that I wouldn’t be pressing ‘send,’ as the numbers were down to seven or 7.5.

A quick Twitter search on Levis didn’t reveal any media outlets breaking any news about the UK signal caller, but I did see multiple tweets indicating that ESPN’s Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica had been on a radio show stating that he heard Levis might not be ready vs. USC.

From there, I sent out a tweet about the strong line movement that picked up some traction with re-tweets from heavily-followed accounts like “CFB Home” and “GamecockCentral.” Five minutes later, KSR’s Matt Jones tweeted, “Lotta speculation online but here is what’s real. [Levis] is questionable for the game Saturday. He has an injury different than the finger that isn’t long term serious but could leave him out. He will be a game-time decision. Kaiya Sheron will be QB if he can’t go.”

Within 10-15 minutes of Jones’s tweet, the Wildcats went from -7 or -7.5 down to -6. Then less than an hour later, the biggest books in Las Vegas and beyond – The Westgate SuperBook, Circa, FanDuel and Caesars – had Kentucky at -5.5.

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As of Thursday morning at 9:20 a.m. Eastern, most shops had UK at -5.5 or six with the total reduced from 49 to 46.5 points. The Gamecocks were down to +200 on the money line.

DraftKings had Kentucky’s Team Total at 29.5 points (-120 to take the ‘over,’ -110 to the ‘under’) early Wednesday night, while USC’s was 19.5 (‘over’ -125, ‘under’ -105). As of Thursday morning, the book had reduced UK’s number down to 26.5 (-115 either way), but USC’s was still at 19.5 with a slightly adjusted price (-135 for the ‘over,’ +105 to the ‘under’).

UK has scored more than 26.5 points three times in five games and has held opponents to 19 or fewer points three times. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have scored at least 30 points in four of their five contests.

Kentucky (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) is in bounce-back mode Saturday after taking a brutal defeat in Oxford. Although the Wildcats covered the spread as seven-point underdogs, they blew a golden opportunity to remain undefeated and hook up their money-line backers with a payout in the +220 neighborhood.

UK fumbled twice in the red zone in the last four minutes. The kicking game was awful with a missed 39-yard field goal and two failed extra-point attempts. The ‘Cats, who had a kickoff return for a TD negated by a penalty, also handed the Rebels two more points when they gave up a safety.

Mark Stoops’s team is 2-1 ATS as a home favorite this season and 21-21 ATS in 42 such spots during his 10-year tenure. On Shane Beamer’s watch, USC has struggled to a 1-3 spread record in four games as a road underdog.

Sheron is a redshirt freshman who has never recorded a stat for Kentucky. I was unable to confirm if he’s ever taken a snap or not. Sheron is a 6-foot-3, 208-pound product of Somerset, KY., who was a three-star recruit to UK in the 2020 recruiting cycle.

247Sports had him ranked as the ninth-best player in the state of Kentucky and the 62^nd-ranked QB nationally. Sheron chose the ‘Cats over Marshall. In three years as a starter at Somerset High School, he threw for more than 3,000 yards and 28 TDs. Sheron led the Briar Jumpers to the Class-AA state title as a junior in 2019.

My Pick: I like South Carolina’s Team Total to go ‘over’ 19.5 points at a -135 price. Since the -135 price is a little juicy, I’d only risk one-half unit on it.

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Other College Football Picks

NC St. -3 vs. FSU: I made NC St. a seven-point favorite. The Wolfpack has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, including victories by margins of 14, 16 and 19 points in their three most recent wins. In last year’s 28-14 win in Tallahassee, QB Devin Leary threw for 314 yards and four TDs. NC St. has won 13 home games in a row and we get the Wolfpack in bounce-back mode here after last week’s 30-20 loss at Clemson.

FSU also tasted defeat for the first time in a 31-21 home loss to Wake Forest. The Seminoles have three key players listed as ‘questionable:’ OT Robert Scott, LB Amari Gainer and DT Fabien Lovett. They’ll be without WR Ja’Khi Douglas, who is out indefinitely.

During Mike Norvell’s three-year tenure, FSU has an abysmal 3-7 record in 10 true road assignments.

Alabama -14 in the first half vs. Texas A&M: Even if Bryce Young is unable to play and Texas A&M’s Max Johnson is a go, I still like the Crimson Tide in the first half. I saw enough out of ‘Bama backup QB Jalen Milroe in last week’s 49-26 win at Arkansas.

After the Razorbacks scored 23 unanswered points to trim ‘Bama’s lead to 28-23, Milroe ripped off a 72-yard run to set up a short TD run. From there, the Tide pulled away and covered the number as a 17-point road favorite.

Nick Saban’s team has been ahead at halftime in its three home games by scores of 41-0, 35-7 and 31-3.

Johnson got knocked out of last week’s 42-24 loss at Mississippi St. Whether he’ll be able to play Saturday is still undetermined. Whatever the case, Jimbo Fisher’s team is at the end of a brutal five-game stretch. Although the Aggies are 2-2 in those four outings, they were dominated by Miami and Arkansas in first downs and total yards during both of those victories.

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Florida -11 vs. Missouri: After two deflating losses at Auburn and vs. Georgia by seven combined points, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Missouri to bring a strong effort in this spot. The Tigers might be without one of their best players, too.

WR Dominic Lovett, who leads the SEC in both receptions (27) and receiving yards (460), left last week’s 26-22 home loss to UGA in the second half with a leg injury. Lovett was unable to return and is listed as ‘questionable’ at UF.

Florida star QB Anthony Richardson has his confidence back after throwing for 693 yards in the last two games. The offense has produced 85 points in those two outings.

James Madison -11 at Arkansas St.: James Madison (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) is ranked No. 1 nationally in both total defense and run defense, and its stop unit is ninth in scoring ‘D’ (13.8 points per game). The Dukes are also prolific on the other side of the ball, ranking eighth in the country in scoring with their 44.8 PPG average.

JMU’s Todd Centeio has thrown for 913 yards with an 11/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The dual-threat QB has also run for a team-high 252 yards and two TDs while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Centeio’s favorite target Kris Thornton has 24 catches for 353 yards and five TDs.

JMU has won three of its four games by margins of 37, 56 and 27 points. The other victory was a 32-28 triumph at Appalachian St.

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**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

–DraftKings has Ohio St. QB CJ Stroud listed as the +160 ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman Trophy. The next-shortest odds belong to Southern Cal QB Caleb Williams (+500), Alabama QB Bryce Young (+900), Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker (12/1), Kansas St. QB Adrian Martinez (+1800 or 18/1), Georgia QB Stetson Bennett (18/1), Michigan RB Blake Corum (18/1), Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs (20/1) and Kansas QB Jalon Daniels (28/1).

–DraftKings has Georgia as the -110 ‘chalk’ to win the SEC Championship Game. Alabama has the next-shortest odds at +105. Those schools are followed by Tennessee (+1200 or 12/1), Ole Miss (25/1), LSU (40/1), Mississippi St. (50/1), Texas A&M (200/1), Kentucky (200/1), Florida (300/1), Auburn (300/1), Arkansas (400/1), USC (1,000/1), Vanderbilt (1,000/1) and Missouri (1,000/1).

–Nation’s Best ATS Teams: Arkansas St. (5-0), Kansas (5-0), Southern Miss (4-0), James Madison (4-0) and TCU (4-0).

–Worst ATS Teams: Colorado (0-5), Stanford (0-4), Colorado St. (0-4), Fresno St. (0-4) and Charlotte (1-5).

–Best ‘OVER’ Teams: Rice (5-0), Washington (5-0), UTSA (5-0), No. Illinois (5-0), Bowling Green (5-0) and Charlotte (5-1).

–Best ‘UNDER’ Teams: Va. Tech (5-0), Colorado St. (4-0), Virginia (4-0-1) and Georgia (4-0-1).

–Gamblers need to be aware of several key injuries to QBs. Louisville’s Malik Cunningham is ‘doubtful’ at Virginia, Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel is ‘doubtful’ vs. Texas, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is ‘questionable’ at Mississippi St. and Texas QB Quinn Ewers is ‘questionable’ vs. OU.

–Bonus NFL play: Detroit at New England ‘OVER’ 45.5 points. The Lions have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 with combined scores of 93, 52, 63 and 73 points. The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Patriots with combined scores of 51 and 63 points. The 51-point tally came last week when rookie QB Bailey Zappe was forced to play most of the game due to injuries to Brian Hoyer and Mac Jones. Even if Zappe starts (Jones and Hoyer are both ‘questionable,’), I still like this play. If Detroit playmakers De’Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown are upgraded from ‘questionable,’ that’ll be great. It’s not mandatory, though. Without Swift and St. Brown last week, the Lions still scored 45 points in a 48-45 loss vs. Seattle.

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