Brian Edwards' Best Bets: South Carolina wager, college football selections
Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
As of early Wednesday night, the numbers for South Carolina’s home game vs. South Carolina St. on Thursday were all over the place. The Gamecocks were as high as 41-point home favorites at Circa, while they were as low as -35.5 at BetRivers.
DraftKings opened USC (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) as a 37.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 55.5, but that number then went up to -39.5 with the total slightly increasing to 56 points.
Shane Beamer’s team improved to 2-2 both SU and ATS with last week’s 56-20 win over Charlotte as a 23-point home favorite. The ‘over’ went to 2-2 when the 76 combined points jumped North of the 66-point total.
Unfortunately for me, I had ‘over’ 34.5 in the first half to lose by one-half point. Although there was only one punt combined from both teams in the first 30 minutes of action, my pick lost due to a pair of long USC drives that ended with made field goals.
On the game’s opening drive, the Gamecocks chewed up more than five minutes of clock and went 72 yards on 12 plays. However, they had to settle for a 25-yard field goal from Mitch Jeter. Then on the final drive of the first half, USC went 85 yards on nine plays before hitting a 27-yard field goal to take a 20-14 advantage into halftime.
South Carolina State comes to Columbia with a 1-2 SU record. The Bulldogs lost 56-10 at Central Florida in Week 1 as 43-point road underdogs, with the 66 combined points going ‘over’ the 58-point total.
They bounced back to win 33-9 at Bethune-Cookman, only to lose 41-27 at North Carolina A&T last weekend.
The Pick: South Carolina -35.5 (BetRivers). If you can’t find a number this low, just play USC for a super-small amount or simply pass on it if the number gets any higher than 41.
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Other Week 5 College Football Picks
Arkansas +17.5 vs. Alabama: The only times I’ve gone against Nick Saban’s team in recent years was with Florida as a double-digit underdog in 2020 (in Atlanta) and 2021 (in Gainesville). UF easily covered the spread as a double-digit underdog in both instances.
I didn’t downgrade Arkansas whatsoever after last week’s gut-wrenching 23-21 loss to Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas. KJ Jefferson made a critical mistake deep in the red zone when the Razorbacks were ahead 14-7 and about to extend the lead. When he reached the ball towards the goal line, it was punched out and returned for a touchdown that completely reversed the course of the game.
Nevertheless, Arkansas still had a chance to take the lead at crunch time, but Cam Little’s 42-yard field-goal attempt hit the very top of the upright and was no good. The Razorbacks finished the game with a 24-16 advantage on the Aggies in first downs and a 415-343 edge in total yards.
Sam Pittman’s team has been a home underdog six times during his three-year tenure, compiling a 4-2 spread record with three outright wins. All three outright victories were by double-digit margins, including a 40-21 shellacking of Texas last season.
Alabama struggled mightily in its first road game, winning 20-19 at Texas as a 21-point road ‘chalk.’ When these teams met in Tuscaloosa last year, Arkansas easily covered the spread in a 42-35 loss as a 20.5-point road underdog.
California +4 at Washington St.: Justin Wilcox’s team owns an incredible 14-1 ATS record in its last 15 games as a road underdog. The Golden Bears bounced back from their controversial 24-17 loss at Notre Dame to blast Arizona 49-31 last week.
True freshman RB Jaydn Ott ran for 274 yards and three TDs on merely 19 carries. QB Jack Plummer connected on 18-of-28 throws for 245 yards and three TDs without an interception. Cal is 5-2 both SU and ATS in its last seven trips to Pullman.
Kentucky +7 at Ole Miss: Mark Stoops’s squad is 3-0 ATS with two outright victories in its last three games as a road underdog. The Wildcats are stoked for the season debut of veteran RB Chris Rodriguez, who is done serving a four-game suspension.
Rodriguez was a second-team All-SEC selection in 2021 when he had 1,379 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 6.1 yards-per-carry average. He should immediately pump some life into UK’s ground attack.
We have the QB advantage with UK’s Will Levis compared to Jaxson Dart. The ‘Cats have produced a stellar 16-3 record since losing back-to-back games to Alabama and Florida in 2020.
New Mexico St. -14 vs. Florida International: If your number is 14.5, buy the half-point to the key number of 14. The Aggies are off a 45-26 home win over Hawaii to get their first win of the season. They played well in a 20-13 loss at UTEP, easily covering the spread as 17-point road underdogs.
Jerry Kill’s team also had a shot at an upset in its opener vs. Nevada. However, New Mexico St. was -5 in turnover margin in a 23-12 home loss to Nevada.
But let’s be clear that we aren’t backing the Aggies. What we’re doing here is fading the nation’s worst team in FIU.
The Golden Panthers are off a 73-0 loss at Western Kentucky. Before that, they lost 41-12 at Texas St. Mike MacIntyre’s team is dead last (#131 nationally out of 131 FBS teams) in scoring defense, allowing an average of 50.3 points per game.
UAB at Rice ‘OVER’ 51: The ‘over’ is a perfect 4-0 for Rice with its games producing combined scores of 54, 62, 61 and 80 points. The Owls are ranked No. 102 in run defense and No. 104 in scoring ‘D’ (32.8 PPG).
UAB is sixth in the country in rushing yards and is poised to gash Rice with its ground attack. The Blazers are averaging 36.0 PPG, while the Owls are scoring at a 31.5 PPG clip. Weather isn’t going to be an issue on Saturday night in Houston, with the forecast calling for outstanding football conditions.
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**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
–I lean to Iowa as an 11-point home underdog vs. Michigan. The Hawkeyes have been double-digit home underdogs only four times in the past decade. Kirk Ferentz’s team has posted a 4-0 spread record with two outright wins in those instances. After destroying three cupcake foes in a row like Colorado St., Hawaii and UConn, Michigan never threatened to cover the number in last week’s 34-27 home win over Maryland. Iowa is ranked No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 5.8 PPG.
–The following schools have compiled 4-0 ATS records: Arkansas St., South Alabama, Southern Miss, Kansas, UNLV, Washington, Oregon St. and Minnesota. James Madison and TCU are 3-0 ATS.
–These teams have limped to a 0-4 ATS mark: Colorado, Colorado St., Utah St., Georgia St., Boston College, Nebraska and Auburn. Boise St. is 0-3-1 ATS, while FIU, Stanford and Fresno St. are 0-3 versus the number.
–The following programs have seen the ‘over’ cash at a perfect 4-0 clip: Washington, Rice, Northern Illinois, UTSA, Bowling Green, Ohio, Memphis and Houston. Vanderbilt and Charlotte have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1, while the ‘over’ is 3-0 for Army and 3-0-1 for Cincinnati.
–The ‘under’ is 5-0 for UTEP, while Texas A&M, Ga. Tech, Va. Tech, Virginia, Arizona St. Utah St. and Colorado St. have seen the ‘under’ hit at a 4-0 rate. The ‘under’ is 3-0 for UAB and San Jose St. and 3-0-1 for Georgia.
