Brian Edwards' South Carolina wagers, college football selections
Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
South Carolina (5-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) saw its four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 23-10 loss to Missouri as a 3.5-point home favorite. The 33 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 45.5-point total.
Shane Beamer’s team will try to bounce back Saturday at Vanderbilt. As of late Wednesday, most books had the Gamecocks installed as seven-point road favorites with a total of 48.5 points. The Commodores were +220 on the money line.
For first-half wagers, USC was listed as a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 24. The Gamecocks were one-half point favorites with a total of 10 for first-quarter bets.
Vanderbilt (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) has lost four games in a row after going 3-1 in non-conference play. Clark Lea’s squad has lost by 20 points or more in four of its five defeats. The ‘Dores have had two weeks to prepare for USC since losing 17-14 at Missouri.
Vandy snapped a 0-3 ATS slide two weeks ago against the Tigers, who held on to win by three as 13.5-point home favorites. Trailing 17-0 at halftime, the Commodores got a defensive TD late in the third quarter. Then with 3:59 remaining, they pulled to within three thanks to Mike Wright’s 80-yard touchdown pass to Gamarion Carter.
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South Carolina has won 13 consecutive head-to-head meetings over Vanderbilt, going 8-4-1 ATS . The ‘under’ has cashed at a 5-2 clip in the last seven games in this rivalry.
Vandy took the cash in last year’s 21-20 loss at USC as a 19-point road underdog. The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 50-point tally. Xavier Legette caught a nine-yard TD pass from Zeb Noland with 37 seconds remaining to lift USC to the comeback win.
USC has won six games in a row in Nashville, including a 41-7 victory as a 13-point road ‘chalk’ in 2020. Back in 2018, the Gamecocks cruised to a 37-14 win as 1.5-point road favorites.
In two seasons under Lea, Vandy has a 2-5 spread record in seven games as a home underdog. The Commodores are 2-8 both SU and ATS in 10 home games on Lea’s watch.
USC has been a road favorite only once since Beamer took over, going 1-0 ATS. The Gamecocks won 20-17 at East Carolina as two-point road favorites in Week 2 of last season.
The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for Vandy, 3-0 in its home outings. Those three home games have produced combined scores of 80, 70 and 73 points.
Totals have been an overall wash for USC (4-4), going 1-1 in its road assignments. Six of USC’s eight games have had 49 combined points or more.
PREDICTION: South Carolina -7 AND ‘over’ 48.5 points
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Other Week 10 college football plays
Tennessee +8 at Georgia: Tennessee (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of road games. The Volunteers are off a dominant 44-6 win over Kentucky as 10-point home favorites. They sacked UK star quarterback Will Levis four times, limited him to only 98 passing yards and intercepted him three times.
Tennessee has had the best offense in the country all year, and now the defense is starting to play its best football. With that formula, Josh Heupel’s team blasted the Wildcats by more than five TDs even though they had two weeks to prepare.
Heupel also welcomed back his best WR, Cedric Tillman, who had been out with an ankle injury since Week 3. Although Tillman was held to four catches for 22 yards, he was just shaking the rust off. The second-team All-SEC player in 2021 had two other receptions nullified due to penalties and was on a limited snap count.
Safety Jaylen McCollough also returned from a two-game suspension to contribute four tackles and one pass broken up.
Georgia is only 2-2 ATS in four home games. The Bulldogs will be playing without veteran LB Nolan Smith, who was lost to a season-ending injury in their 42-20 win over Florida.
Hendon Hooker has a remarkable 21/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio along with four rushing scores. I sense that he’s about to orchestrate an upset, so I’ll have a small taste of the Vols on the money line for a +245 payout.
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LSU +13.5 vs. Alabama. Buy the half-point to the key number of 14 for -120 juice. LSU (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) is 4-1 both SU and ATS in five home games this year, with the only defeat coming to Tennessee.
Alabama is 2-5 ATS in seven road games since the start of last season, losing outright twice. However, the Crimson Tide could’ve easily lost in last year’s games at Florida and at Auburn, in addition to at Texas this season.
Brian Kelly’s team has won back-to-back games by double-digit margins, winning 45-35 at Florida and 45-20 vs. Ole Miss. In those two victories, QB Jayden Daniels threw five TD passes without an interception. The transfer from Arizona St. also had six rushing TDs.
Like the Vols in Athens, I think LSU has a good shot at winning outright. The Tigers are +425 on the money line. On that note, I’m suggesting a small money-line parlay on both LSU and Tennessee to win outright. You should be able to get a payout of around 15/1 odds.
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North Carolina -7 at Virginia: North Carolina (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is undefeated in four road contests with a 3-1 ATS record, while Virginia (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in four home outings. The Tar Heels are getting spectacular QB play from Drake Maye, who Pro Football Focus has as the country’s highest-rated signal caller.
Maye has completed 71.3 percent of his passes for 2,671 yards with a 29/3 TD-INT ratio. He also has 439 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.5 yards-per-carry average.
On the flip side, UVA’s Brennan Armstrong has an abysmal 6/9 TD-INT ratio. In fairness to the Cavaliers’ QB, his did lose his entire offensive line from last season when he threw for 4,449 yards with a 31/10 TD-INT ratio.
UVA has scored more than 17 points only once in seven games against FBS opponents, and that came in a 22-20 loss at Syracuse. The Cavs are ranked No. 123 out of 131 FBS teams in scoring with a 16.9 PPG average.
They just aren’t going to be able to score enough against the Tar Heels, who are sixth in the nation in passing yards, seventh in scoring (41.8 PPG) and eighth in total offense.
TCU -9 vs. Texas Tech: I made TCU (8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) a 14-point home favorite to the Red Raiders, who are winless in three road assignments with a 1-2 spread record. The Horned Frogs are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home.
Sonny Dykes’s team feels disrespected by its placement at No. 7 of the initial College Football Rankings that were released Tuesday night. Five of TCU’s eight victories have been by double-digit margins, including back-to-back wins vs. Kansas St. (38-28) and at West Virginia (41-31).
TCU QB Max Duggan has a 22/2 TD-INT ratio and four rushing TDs. WR Quentin Johnston has 42 receptions for 650 yards and four TDs, while RB Kedre Miller has 851 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 6.4 YPC average. This trio is going to successfully exploit Texas Tech and its 89th-ranked scoring defense (29.3 PPG).
I also like two NFL plays on Thursday Night Football. Let’s go with Philadelphia’s Team Total in the first half to go ‘over’ 14 points and the Eagles -7 in the first half. They’ve scored 20 points or more by halftime in six of their seven games and at least 14 in all seven outings.
Philadelphia has held halftime leads of 10, 17, 24, 17, 6, 4 and 11 points. Although two of those games wouldn’t have covered Thursday’s seven-point spread in the first half, the Eagles are 7-0 ATS in the first half this year. (When they led by six and four at intermission, their first-half lines were smaller.)
