Brian Edwards' South Carolina wagers, college football selections

Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.

South Carolina (6-3 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) bounced back from a home loss to Missouri by capturing a 38-27 win at Vanderbilt last week. The Gamecocks covered the spread as 6.5-point road favorites and improved to 3-3 in SEC play.

Shane Beamer’s team has now won five of its last six games while going 4-2 ATS. USC will hit the road again Saturday when it plays at Florida. The Gamecocks will come to Gainesville with a 2-1 record both SU and ATS in three road games.

As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had Florida (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) installed as an eight-point favorite with a total of 59. USC was +260 on the money line.

For first-half bets, the Gators were 4.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 29. The Gamecocks had +200 odds to have the lead going into intermission. UF is a 3.5-point favorite in the first quarter with a total of 13 that’s shaded to the ‘over’ at a -120 price.

Florida is off a 41-24 win at Texas A&M as a 1.5-point underdog, ending a two-game losing streak. The Gators have won four of their six home games, but they’ve struggled to a 2-4 ATS mark. Billy Napier’s team has been even worse as a home ‘chalk,’ going 1-4 ATS with a pair of outright losses to Kentucky and LSU.

UF was without its best wide receiver Justin Shorter at Texas A&M due to a hamstring injury. Napier told the media after Wednesday’s practice that Shorter “has done work” on a “pitch count” at the last two practices. The first-year head coach dubbed him as ‘questionable’ vs. USC.

Shorter has 21 receptions for 471 yards and two TDs in eight games. Napier announced that starting tight end Keon Zipperer will miss his second straight game against the Gamecocks. WR Ja’Quavion Fraziers is also ‘out’ after sustaining a “pretty significant” shoulder injury in College Station.

Fraziers was injured while making a touchdown catch last week. For the season, Fraziers has four catches for 50 yards. Zipperer has 13 receptions for 177 yards and one TD.

The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight games for the Gators, who have had combined scores of 80, 62 and 65 points in those three contests. The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for UF, 3-3 in its home games.

In last week’s win at Vandy, the 65 combined points went ‘over’ the 48-point tally. The ‘over’ improved to 5-4 overall for USC and 2-1 in its road outings. However, only four of the Gamecocks’ nine games have gone North of the 59-point total we have for Saturday.

As for Florida, five of its last six games have had combined scores in the 60s or higher. Another UF game hit on exactly 59 points. The ‘over’ has cashed in five consecutive head-to-head meetings between these schools, but two of those games would’ve dipped below Saturday’s total at 48 and 57 combined points.

Florida saw its three-game winning streak in this rivalry obliterated at Williams-Brice Stadium last year. The Gators went to Columbia as 20.5-point road favorites, but the Gamecocks blasted them early and often in a 40-17 win. They hooked up money-line supporters with a monster +800 payout.

The home team has prevailed in five of the last six games in this rivalry. USC hasn’t won at The Swamp since winning a 23-20 decision as a 6.5-point underdog in 2014.

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PREDICTION: Napier is 1-4 ATS in the favorite role at UF this year and he’s 8-19 ATS in his last 27 ‘chalk’ spots as a head coach. Beamer is 6-6 ATS with four outright wins in 12 games as an underdog. In five home games against FBS foes this season, UF’s largest margin of victory is seven points in a 24-17 win over Missouri. I’ll go with the Gamecocks +8.

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Let’s also go with Texas A&M at Auburn to go ‘OVER’ 48 or 48.5 points. The ‘over’ has cashed in four straight Auburn games that have had combined scores of 72, 68, 82 and 52 points. Star RB Tank Bigsby has produced 331 rushing yards and four TDs in the Tigers’ last three contests.

The ‘over’ has hit in three consecutive Texas A&M games and four of its last five. Those games have had combined scores of 65, 59, 54, 44 and 66 points. The 44-point outlier came in a 24-20 loss at Alabama when the Aggies scored only three points on a pair of possessions in which they had first-and-goal opportunities in the last five minutes.

Look for Texas A&M RB Devon Achane to gash an Auburn run defense that’s ranked only No. 114 out of 131 FBS teams. Achane has 887 rushing yards, six TDs and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average.

Likewise, Auburn should enjoy success with Bigsby, mobile QB Robbie Ashford and backup RB Jarquez Hunter against a Texas A&M run ‘D’ that’s ranked No. 123 nationally.

Win USC-Tennessee tickets from 107.5 The Game and Gamecock Central

Ole Miss +12 and +370 (DraftKings) on the money line vs. Alabama: From a money-management standpoint, we’re suggesting a much larger play on the Rebels plus the points. If you have one unit on Ole Miss +12, then just place one-quarter unit on the money line.

Ole Miss owns a 22-5 record in its last 27 games. In that stretch, Lane Kiffin’s team has lost by more than 11 points only three times. The Rebels have won 14 consecutive home games.

They’re in an ideal spot here off their open date with two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide, who are off an overtime loss at LSU. Nick Saban’s bunch now travels for a second straight week, and the road has not been kind to the Tide since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Alabama is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road assignments with three outright defeats. However, three of the non-covering victories came by merely five combined points. In other words, ‘Bama is extremely fortunate to not have a 2-6 record both SU and ATS in its last eight road outings.

Win this print! Williams-Brice Stadium, South Carolina State Fair

California +14 at Oregon St.: California has been incredible as a road underdog in recent years, compiling a 15-2 ATS record in its last 17 such spots. The Golden Bears have been double-digit underdogs 15 times during Justin Wilcox’s tenure, posting an 11-4 ATS record with four outright victories. Cal is 5-3 both SU and ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these schools, and the Beavers haven’t beaten Cal by more than four points since 2013.

Rice at Western Ky. ‘OVER’ 61: The ‘over’ has cashed at an 8-1 clip for Rice this season. This total matches the highest the Owls have seen and it’s the third time they’ve had a total of 61 points. In the two previous instances, the ‘over’ easily cashed in a 56-23 loss at Charlotte and a 66-14 loss at USC.

Rice is ranked No. 117 nationally in scoring defense, allowing an average of 33.2 points per game. The Owls average 30.0 PPG, so their games average combined scores of 63.2 PPG.

Western Ky. has played in three games with a total of 61.5 points or fewer. In those three contests, the ‘over’ went 2-1. The Hilltoppers are ranked No. 15 in the country in total offense, No. 3 in passing yards and No. 18 in scoring with their 37.2 PPG average.

WKU QB Austin Reed has thrown for 3,174 yards with a 28/6 TD-INT ratio. He also has six rushing TDs.

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