Brian Edwards' South Carolina wager, college football selections

Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.

South Carolina (6-4 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) will be in bounce-back mode Saturday night when it hosts Tennessee at Williams-Brice Stadium. The Gamecocks are off a 38-6 loss at Florida as nine-point road underdogs. The 44 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 58-point total.

As of early Wednesday, most books had the Volunteers installed as 21.5-point road favorites with a total of 66. USC had +1100 money-line odds to win outright (risk $100 to win $1,100).

For first-half wagers, most spots had Tennessee (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) favored by 11.5 points with a total of 34.5. The Gamecocks had +550 odds to have the lead at halftime.

Shane Beamer’s team has been an underdog in five of its 10 games, producing a 2-3 record both SU and ATS. This is only USC’s second double-digit underdog situation of the season. The first one didn’t go well when Georgia came into Columbia as a 25-point road ‘chalk’ and easily covered in a 48-7 victory.

South Carolina is 1-1 both SU and ATS as a home underdog this year, beating Texas A&M 30-24 as a three-point puppy. In his first two season on the job, Beamer is 3-3 both SU and ATS in six games as a home ‘dog. He led his team to wins over Auburn and Florida in such spots in 2021.

USC is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in six home games this year, while Tennessee is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three road assignments. The Volunteers won 34-27 at Pittsburgh in overtime and mauled LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge. They lost 27-13 at Georgia as 10-point road underdogs two weeks ago.

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Josh Heupel went 2-2 both SU and ATS in four road games in his first season last year. His teams were underdogs in three of those contests and won 45-42 at Kentucky in a pick ‘em affair. The Vols are 2-0 ATS as road favorites on his watch with the victories at Pitt and at LSU.

UT bounced back from its loss in Athens to pull away from Missouri in the second half of last week’s 66-24 win as an 18.5-point home favorite. The 90 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57.5-point total when Hendon Hooker hit Jalin Hyatt for a 68-yard TD pass with 8:30 left in the third quarter.

Hooker had 355 passing yards and three TDs without an interception, in addition to rushing for 50 yards and one TD. For the season, he now has a 24/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and five rushing scores. In his two seasons with the Vols, Hooker has 50 TD passes compared to merely five interceptions. He also has 962 rushing yards and 10 TDs.

South Carolina has had to play without star RB MarShawn Lloyd in the last two games. Lloyd, who is nursing a quad injury that has him listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UT, has a team-best 556 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average. He also has 17 receptions for 173 yards and two TDs.

Totals have been a wash for the Gamecocks overall (5-5) and at home (3-3). Their games are averaging combined scores of 54.8 points per game. If the total remains at 66 points, it will be USC’s second-highest tally of the season. In its 56-20 home win over Charlotte, South Carolina saw the 76 combined points elevate ‘over’ the 67-point total.

The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Vols, but the ‘under’ is 3-0 in their road outings. UT’s three road games have had combined scores of 61, 53 and 40 points. The 61 points came in the OT win at Pitt, but that game had 54 total points in regulation. However, we should note that UT’s games have averaged combined scores of 69.3 PPG.

Since losing three games in a row to USC from 2016-18, Tennessee has responded with three consecutive victories in this rivalry. The Vols are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the ‘over’ has cashed in the last three encounters. However, those three recent ‘overs’ had combined scores of 65, 58 and 62 points that would’ve landed South of Saturday’s current 66-point number.

PREDICTION: Only two of South Carolina’s 10 games have had more than 65 combined points. Couple that stat with UT’s 3-0 record to the ‘under’ in its road assignments, and I’ll go with ‘under’ 66 points.

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Other Week 12 College Football Picks

TCU -2.5 at Baylor: TCU (10-0 SU, 8-1-1 ATS) is unbeaten in five road games with a 4-0-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Baylor (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) is 3-2 both SU and ATS in five home contests. The Bears got run out of their own building in last week’s 38-3 loss to Kansas St. as 2.5-point home ‘chalk.’

TCU has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings against Baylor, including last year’s 30-28 win as a 7.5-point home underdog in the same season the Bears won the Big 12. The Horned Frogs’ lone defeat to Baylor in the last seven of this rivalry came in overtime in 2019.

Sonny Dykes’s squad had won three straight games by double-digit margins and was on its way to giving Texas the same treatment in Austin last Saturday. However, the Longhorns got a scoop-and-score TD on a fumble return with 4:25 remaining for their only trip into the end zone in a 17-10 loss.

The Horned Frogs won outright at Texas as 7.5-point road underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a +230 payout. The Longhorns are still averaging 33.5 PPG even after being held to 10 last week, so it was obviously TCU’s best defensive effort of the year.

TCU QB Max Duggan is sporting a 25/2 TD-INT ratio and four rushing TDs. RB Kendre Miller has 1,148 rushing yards, 13 TDs and 6.6 YPC average, while WR Quentin Johnston has 45 catches for 716 yards and five TDs.

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ULM at Troy ‘UNDER’ 48 points: The ‘under’ has been a winner in five straight Troy games and this is their highest total since Oct. 1. The Trojans’ last five combined scores have been 19, 40, 16, 31 and 37 points. They’re ranked ninth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing an average of only 16.7 PPG. Their combined scores for the season are averaging only 38.0 PPG.

LSU -14.5 vs. UAB: If your number is 14.5, buy the half-point to the key number of 14 just in case. LSU (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is 5-1 both SU and ATS in six home games with four of those wins coming by margins of at least 15 points.

UAB (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) is winless both SU and ATS in four road contests this year, including losses at FAU, at Western Kentucky, at Rice and at Liberty. The Blazers have lost three of their past four games and are mired in a 1-4 ATS slump.

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Duke +7.5 at Pitt: Duke  (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won three games in a row with two of those wins — at Va. Tech and at Miami — coming by double-digit margins. The Blue Devils have lost by more than three points just once this season, dropping a 35-27 decision at Kansas. 

They own a 3-1 record both SU and ATS in four games as underdogs, with the lone non-cover coming by one point at KU as seven-point road ‘dogs. QB Riley Leonard has completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 2,113 yards with a 13/5 TD-INT ratio. He also has a team-best 624 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 6.2 yards-per-carry average.

With Leonard and first-year head coach Mike Elko (compared to Pat Narduzzi), I’m confident we have both the QB and HC advantages. 

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