Brian Edwards' South Carolina wager, college football selections

Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.

South Carolina (4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) brings a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS into Saturday’s SEC showdown vs. Texas A&M. The Aggies are off back-to-back losses at Mississippi St. (42-24) and Alabama (24-20), although they easily covered the number as 24-point underdogs in Tuscaloosa.

As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had USC installed as a three-point home underdog with a total of 45. The Gamecocks were +140 on the money line. For first-half wagers, Jimbo Fisher’s team was favored by 1.5 or two points.

Since joining the SEC, Texas A&M has dominated this rivalry with eight consecutive wins and four straight spread covers. The Aggies are 5-2-1 ATS in the eight head-to-head meetings, while the ‘under’ is 5-3. The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in the last six encounters between these schools.

Texas A&M has won the eight meetings by an average of 19.0 points per game, and the last three victories have come by margins of 30, 45 and 24 points. The Aggies won 44-14 as 19.5-point home ‘chalk’ last year and blasted USC by a 48-3 count as 10-point road favorites in their last trip to Williams-Brice Stadium.

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Since losing at home to Georgia in Week 3, USC has defeated Charlotte (56-20) and S.C. State (50-10) at home before winning 24-14 at Kentucky as a four-point road underdog. MarShawn Lloyd was the catalyst against the Wildcats, running for 110 yards and one touchdown on 22 attempts. He also had two catches for 31 yards.

Jalen Brooks had a 24-yard TD run and hauled in three receptions for 37 yards. Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells had three catches for 66 yards, including a 42-yard TD grab from Spencer Rattler that put the Gamecocks ahead for good early in the third quarter.

With QB Max Johnson injured in Starkville, Fisher had to go back to Haynes King as his starting QB at Alabama. He had replaced King with Johnson following a 17-14 home loss to Appalachian St. in Week 2.

King completed 25-of-46 passes for 253 yards and two TDs with one interception against the Crimson Tide. For the season, he has connected on 58.2 percent of his throws for 763 yards with a mediocre 5/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

During Fisher’s five-year tenure, Texas A&M has thrived in road favorite roles, producing a 7-2 ATS record. Meanwhile, South Carolina has posted a 2-3 record both SU and ATS in five games as a home underdog on Shane Beamer’s watch.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for the Aggies, going 1-1 in their two true road assignments and 2-1 when they leave College Station. Totals have been a wash for the Gamecocks both overall (3-3) and in their home contests (2-2).

This is USC’s second-lowest total of the season. The 38 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 44-point tally in the Gamecocks’ win at Kentucky. This matches Texas A&M’s lowest total of the year, as the 66 combined points soared ‘over’ the 45-point total in its loss at Mississippi St.

PREDICTION: ‘OVER’ 45 – USC’s combined scores this year have been 49, 74, 55, 76, 60 and 38 points. Let’s play this game to go north of this low total.

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Other Week 8 college football selections

LSU -125 (on the money line at South Point and Circa) vs. Ole Miss: QB Jayden Daniels played his best game in an LSU uniform last week, leading the Tigers to a 45-35 win at Florida. The former signal caller at Arizona St. threw for 349 yards and three TDs without an interception, in addition to rushing for 44 yards and three TDs.

LSU has won five of the last six head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, but it is in revenge mode here after the Rebels captured a 31-17 home win last season. The Tigers have beaten Ole Miss in six straight meetings in Baton Rouge.

Ole Miss gave up only 13 points in its first three games of non-conference play. However, the Rebels’ defense has struggled in recent weeks. Auburn had been a pedestrian offense in its first six contests, scoring just 12, 17, 17 and 10 points in its previous four games before going to Oxford last weekend.

But Bryan Harsin’s team shook off an early 21-0 deficit and cut Ole Miss’s lead to seven points or less on four different occasions before losing a 48-34 decision. Vanderbilt, which was held to three combined points in road games at Georgia and at Alabama, scored 28 on the Rebels two weeks ago.

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Missouri -14 vs. Vanderbilt: This is a favorable spot for Missouri coming off its open date. The Tigers needed a weekend off after losing three straight games in heartbreaking fashion. On the bright side, they covered the spread in all three defeats and led UGA for nearly the entire game.

Vandy has lost three in a row both SU and ATS by a combined score of 162-31. I think Mizzou is poised to take a month’s worth of frustration out on the Commodores, who lost 55-0 at UGA last week.

Oklahoma St. +6.5 vs. Texas: The number was either six or 6.5 as of Wednesday night. If your line is 6.5, buy the half-point to the key number of seven.

Oklahoma St. has won 12 home games in a row and 15 of its last 16. The lone defeat in that span came to Texas two years ago in overtime. The Cowboys are 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five games as home underdogs going back to 2016. This is their first situation as home ‘dogs since 2019.

Texas beat Iowa St. 21-17 last week, but it never threatened to cover as a double-digit home favorite. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma St. 32-24 last year.

Therefore, the Cowboys have the revenge angle and are also in bounce-back mode after allowing a 17-point lead to get away in their first loss of the year last week at TCU (43-40) in double overtime.

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