Can South Carolina avoid going winless in SEC play? Here's what the odds say
South Carolina is going through one of its worst stretches in program history. The Gamecocks are 0-9 through the first half of SEC play with an entire second half still to go.
The conference is as good as ever, with a strong possibility of getting double-digit teams into the NCAA Tournament this year. And it happens in a season where South Carolina has taken a step back after winning 26 games last year.
In all likelihood, March Madness talks are off the table for this squad. Of course, there’s always a chance they could go on a run and win the SEC Tournament to earn an automatic bid. But in reality, this is shaping up to be a disappointing season in Columbia.
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With nine games left in the regular season, the Gamecocks are starting to enter unprecedented territory. If they fail to win a game in conference play, they will become the third SEC team ever to go 0-18. Most recently, Missouri went winless last season in Dennis Gates’ second year as head coach. The only other team to achieve this feat is Vanderbilt during the 2018-19 season.
Even with how this season has gone for South Carolina, the odds of going 0-18 are still unlikely. KenPom gives the team a 4.6 percent chance to finish winless. So that begs the question: if the Gamecocks are going to avoid making history for the wrong reasons, where can they pick up their first SEC win?
Here’s the remainder of the schedule in the best basketball conference of this century. Also below are the odds KenPom gives South Carolina in each game.
| Date | Opponent (KenPom ranking) | Odds of winning | Home or away |
| Saturday, Feb. 8 | Kentucky (24) | 15% chance to win | Away |
| Wednesday, Feb. 12 | Ole Miss (20) | 31% chance to win | Home |
| Saturday, Feb. 15 | Florida (5) | 7% chance to win | Away |
| Tuesday, Feb. 18 | LSU (82) | 39% chance to win | Away |
| Saturday, Feb. 22 | Texas (31) | 41% chance to win | Home |
| Tuesday, Feb. 25 | Missouri (22) | 14% chance to win | Away |
| Saturday, March 1 | Arkansas (43) | 47% chance to win | Home |
| Tuesday, March 4 | Georgia (37) | 44% chance to win | Home |
| Saturday, March 8 | Tennessee (4) | 7% chance to win | Away |
So, the odds aren’t exactly in the Gamecocks’ favor the rest of the way. Keep in mind, though, KenPom is just a computer spitting out information based on how teams play. But in addition to all that information above, KenPom has score predictions for each game with South Carolina losing all nine, even though they project the team to finish 2-16 in SEC play and 12-19 overall.
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For the longest time, the one game KenPom saw the Gamecocks winning was against Arkansas. That has since changed with the Razorbacks predicted to win 68-67 on March 1. A big reason for that switch has to do with them winning two straight games, including a signature win against Kentucky in John Calipari’s return to Rupp Arena.
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The one benefit South Carolina has in that game is that it comes at Colonial Life Arena. And that’s probably going to be the best chance to get an SEC win this season. Despite all their struggles, the Gamecocks tend to play better when they’re at home. Four of their five home losses in SEC play have come by five or fewer points.
They haven’t fared as well when they’ve gone on the road, though. In their four road losses, they’ve only lost one game by single digits. They’ll travel for five more games before the SEC Tournament, but they’ll still have four more opportunities at home to get a win.
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Two of those home games are back-to-back, when Arkansas comes to town followed by Georgia on March 4. That might be South Carolina’s window of opportunity. But there’s one road game where it could finally happen, too.
The team travels to Baton Rouge to take on struggling LSU on Feb. 18. The Tigers are 1-8 in conference play and have lost five straight. KenPom sees them finishing 3-15 and 14-17 overall.
Then again, it could always happen in a game where no one expects it, like on Saturday. The Gamecocks will return to action fresh off their bye week when they face Kentucky in Lexington. It’s worth noting Lamont Paris is a perfect 2-0 against the Wildcats in his coaching career. Tip-off is at noon on ESPN2.
