Dying on the ACC vine: what will Big Ten, SEC do about FSU, Clemson, and Miami?

Editor’s note: The following piece on realignment was authored by a source with deep connections to college athletics leadership. The source, who is known to GamecockCentral.com, wishes to remain anonymous. The perspective that follows is that of the writer.

Conference realignment discussions often generate passionate debate among college football fanbases. In light of major moves by the Big 10 and Big 12 during the past few days that effectively extinguish any future for the Pac-12, X (fka Twitter), fan message boards, and media outlets are buzzing about what the Big 10 and SEC might do next.

Further, since the SEC added Texas and Oklahoma a couple years ago, FSU, Clemson and Miami have signaled significant displeasure with the ACC and the contract that binds them to that conference. That anxiety among the leadership at those three schools has only grown over the past few days.

It is well-known that FSU and Clemson have been actively campaigning to join either the Big 10 or SEC to reap the benefits of the generous television contracts negotiated by those conferences, while Miami has expressed interest in realignment in a less aggressive manner. This article explores the likelihood that FSU, Clemson or Miami may have an opportunity to join the Big 10 or SEC in the near future and concludes the most likely scenario is that the football programs at all three schools will whither and effectively die on the ACC vine during the next several years because they will have nowhere else to go.

Setting the scene

The FSU Board of Trustees’s embarrassing display of outright angst and desperation during it’s Board meeting the first week of August not only did harm to the institution, it solidified the thought that the Big 10 and SEC should be wary about adding that institution to its ranks. Looking past the fact that FSU declined an invitation to the SEC in 1991, their leadership, along with Clemson’s and Miami’s, willingly entered into the ACC’s exit fee and grant of rights agreement that they now lament.

While FSU’s whining was likely staged and coordinated to send a message to ACC schools and other conferences, football recruits and spectators outside FSU have now heard the FSU president and board say the quiet part outloud: There is a significant gap between ACC schools and their football counterparts in the Big Ten and SEC, and the gap will likely grow exponentially now that the Big Ten and SEC have made big realignment moves that will take effect next year.

FSU President Richard McCullough summarized the school’s predicament and openly assessed its inability to be competitive against schools in the Big 10 and SEC in the long term, “I would have to say that my current assessment of the situation after very deep analysis is that I believe FSU, at some point, will have to very seriously consider leaving the ACC unless there was a radical change to the revenue distribution.”

FSU trustee Drew Weatherford put an even finer point on the issue when he said, “It’s not a matter of if we leave (the ACC), in my opinion, it’s a matter of how and when we leave.” Not to be outdone, Trustee Justin Roth wants an exit plan for FSU to leave the ACC in the next 12 months. He compared staying in the ACC to a “death by 1,000 cuts…every cut is a $30 million cut” and said that in a few years the ACC “will be a third-rate conference.” Try fourth-rate conference.

There’s no dispute that the SEC and BIG 10 are one and two when it comes to college football conferences. Observers lately have ranked the ACC as, at least, the third best conference; however, those days are over. While ACC schools are chained together with an exit fee and seemingly impenetrable grant of rights agreement through 2036, their competitors in the Big 12 made moves this week in adding Arizona, Arizona State and Utah that will firmly establish the ACC as the fourth-best conference in football within the next couple years. This will be true whether you measure success by the overall quality of football in each conference or the television revenues generated by the now-remaining Power 4 conferences. Football recruits should pay attention: if you want to compete against the best and demonstrate your ability to perform on the next level, you will probably have to look for opportunities outside the ACC to find top competition.

FSU is not alone in its desire to leave the ACC. Along with FSU, Clemson leaders have been calling Commissioner Greg Sankey and every SEC institution asking for an opportunity to join the SEC. Although Miami has been less overt, don’t overlook the relationship between Miami and Clemson: Miami Athletic Director Dan Radakovich left Clemson to become Miami’s AD and his protégé, Graham Neff, was promoted to AD at Clemson. No one should doubt that Radakovich and Neff talk regularly and coordinate their efforts both inside the ACC and in reaching out to other conferences begging for an opportunity to join them, if they can extricate themselves from the ACC’s grasp. But, when you cut out all the noise and the media’s desire to see more realignment, what do FSU, Clemson and Miami really offer the Big 10 and SEC? Let’s look at how both conferences likely view those schools right now.

BIG 10 REALIGNMENT SCENARIOS

The Big 10 made significant moves recently to add Southern California, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, making it an 18-team conference. Although they have television deals worth $8B, the Big 10’s most recent entrants (Oregon and Washington) join with only a partial share of conference revenue for a few years while the current membership tries to preserve the heavy distributions they’ve promised themselves from their television deals. In addition, the Big 10 has established itself as a nationwide, coast-to-coast conference with institutions now figuring out how they’ll travel across the country to play each other in non-revenue sports. Finally, it’s no secret the Big 10 covets Notre Dame as a member of its conference. While Notre Dame hopes to secure a new, independent television deal from NBC that will pay it more than $60M a year, the Big 10 continues to make overtures to Notre Dame about joining the conference.

Scenario 1: Add Notre Dame. This is by far the first choice for the Big 10 and the conference will have no problem finding another school to make it an even, 20-team conference with two 10-team divisions, if it can convince Notre Dame to join. Most likely, that second school would be Stanford. Both schools offer new television markets for the Big 10 without creating significant, additional travel expenses for member institutions who are already figuring out how to compete in the West, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic/East Coast. Both schools are acadmically strong and have a natural rivalry that enhances the conference’s reputation.

Scenario 2: Add North Carolina and Virginia. These schools offer new markets for the conference, are located near it’s southeastern most member (Maryland), and are academically strong, which is what many of the Big 10 presidents prefer to see in new members. Multiple outlets report that the Big 10 is very interested in adding North Carolina and Virginia; however, it won’t be easy. First, there’s the nagging ACC exit fee and grant of rights contract preventing any ACC school from leaving for, at least several more years, or until 2036. Second, the Big 10 cannot overtly express interest in ACC schools because most states recognize legal claims that create causes of action for
tortious interference with contractual relations and other ACC schools who are left out will be glad to pursue such claims against a deep pocket conference like the Big 10. Third, the Big 10 will have to compete against the SEC in recruiting these schools to their conference if they are available. Most observers with conference connections believe North Carolina and Virginia are at the top of the SEC’s wish list if the ACC falls apart (see more about this in the SEC scenario section below).

Scenario 3: Sit tight and spend a few years competing as an 18-team conference with the largest television revenue contracts in college sports while you figure out how to compete against each other from one coast of the country to the other. While this is likely the Big 10’s third choice of how it wants to proceed, it is the most likely scenario under current circumstances.

Scenario 4: Add Stanford and California to creat a 20-team conference and two 10- team divisions. The Big 10 could decide to create a 20-team conference by moving to add Stanford and Cal during the next few weeks. However, the Big 10’s other new members from the West coast reportedly do not support it, and adding two teams from the San Francisco market will not move the needle enough in terms of new viewers, which would likely result in each institution receiving less television revenue per year than what they have already promised themselves.

Scenario 5: Add FSU, Clemson, and/or Miami. Despite what you may have heard elsewhere, this is by far the least desirable option for the Big 10 and it’s likely the conference would only take two of these three schools. Although FSU trustees banged on their conference room table last week and extolled the virtues of their own football program, most people outside Tallahassee don’t view the school in the same way. Yes, FSU has history and it did manage to reach 10 wins (with an ACC schedule) last season, but this is a .500 football program over the past seven seasons that was ready to fire its newly-hired coach a couple of seasons ago.

As for Clemson, the program is beginning to struggle with headwinds in recruiting now that its competitors are able to accomplish through NIL what Clemson was rumored to have been doing many years before NIL payments were allowed by the NCAA. Plus, most people believe Clemson is in North Carolina (it’s not) and Dabo Swinney’s appeal nationally is greatly diminished by his antics on and off the field the past few seasons.

Miami also has history as a football program, but it struggles to fill its own stadium on game day, it has an uncommitted fanbase, and it hasn’t been relevant in college football in a very long time. Granted, while all three schools do offer new television markets for the Big 10 and they enhance the football reputation of the conference, there are problems.

First, all three schools are shackled to the ACC like North Carolina and Virginia, and no one has figured out how to get out of the contract. All three schools have publicly acknowledged looking at how to get out of the contract, but no one has taken action yet, which isn’t a good sign for them.

Second, the Big 10 doesn’t want to interfere with the ACC’s contractual relations and get sued (see above).

Third, the new television markets offered by FSU and, especially, Clemson are relatively insignificant and the Miami market, while large, suffers from lukewarm support for its local school. The Big 10 currently owns most of the largest markets in the country and inducting two of these schools would likely dilute the revenue share to a point that current members can’t justify adding these schools.

Fourth, does the Big 10 really want two outposts in the southeast? Again, the travel difficulties created by an ever-expanding Big 10 conference wreaks havoc on student- athletes who will have to already travel great distances to three regions of the country to compete in conference games. Adding a fourth region for travel makes little sense and could be considered inhumane. Most Big 10 teams will have to fly commercial to these three schools in the southeast, which is expensive, and anyone who has flown to Tallahassee, Florida or Greenville, South Carolina knows there are few direct flights to those airports and, with regard to Clemson, you get to drive a van and/or take a bus an additional hour after you land to reach its campus.

Fifth, FSU, Clemson and Miami do not share the same academic reputations of North Carolina and Virginia (although Miami was recently invited to join the prestigous AAU), and the culture of the Big 10 schools is much different than the culture of FSU, Clemson and Miami.

If you’re a leader at FSU, Clemson, or Miami you have to accept the reality that the likely conference realignment scenarios for the Big 10 do not make you a high priority at this time and complications of adding two outposts in the southeast who are currently bound by contract to the ACC makes it a perilous venture for Big 10 presidents. Plus, if FSU, Clemson or Miami were a priority and there was a plausible pathway for them, then we would have already seen the Big 10 invite at least two of those schools to the conference before adding Oregon or Washington.

SEC REALIGNMENT SCENARIOS

The SEC made its big move in 2021 to add Texas and Oklahoma to form a 16-team conference that will begin competion in 2024. Although FSU, Clemson and, to a lesser extent, Miami have made repeated calls to Commissioner Greg Sankey and SEC institutions asking for an opportunity to join the conference, all public and private statements from the Commissioner and SEC presidents has focused on sticking with 16 teams for now and preparing for a new football schedule format. When conference leaders discuss the possibility of adding new teams, there are two constants, 1) the SEC will only consider adding teams from the ACC IF the ACC first falls apart and teams are available to join a new conference, and 2) the SEC will focus on new markets contiguous with its current footprint, namely North Carolina and Virginia. With that said, let’s consider the likely conference realignment scenarios for the SEC.

Scenario 1: The SEC remains a 16-team conference for several years. This is the most likely scenario for the SEC, especially since the ACC exit fee and grant of rights contract effectively prohibits those schools from defecting to another conference until 2036, or at least the early 2030s. Recently, UNC’s athletic director explained the contract during an interview and estimated it would cost an institution approximately $500M to leave the ACC right now.

The SEC will remain the premier football conference in the country as a 16-team conference that now includes Texas and Oklahoma. In short, the SEC doesn’t need anyone else. Further, the conference members already enjoy significant revenue sharing that they will be careful not to dilute for each member when they consider adding new teams. SEC leaders also aren’t going to entangle itself and its members in likely protracted litigation that stems from ACC teams attempting to leave the conference or from ACC schools alleging that other conferences tortiously interfered with their league’s contract. Commissioner Sankey has repeatedly said the conference is comfortable at 16 teams and is not looking to expand. His sentiment is unanimously supported by the conference presidents, for whom he works.

Scenario 2: The SEC expands by adding North Carolina and Virginia. The conference rumor mill focuses on the idea that if the SEC expands, it’ll expand by adding North Carolina and Virginia, and it’ll have to compete with the Big 10 to acquire those schools. Those institutions add new markets for the SEC and are geographically contiguous to the conference—which fulfills both stated requirements for the SEC to consider expansion at this point, according to Commissioner Sankey. The SEC isn’t focused on recruiting new schools, and it certainly isn’t recruiting any schools from the ACC. Again, the SEC will leave it to ACC schools to determine what happens with its exit fee contract and grant of rights, and will not be the reason the conference falls apart. However, if the ACC does fall apart, the SEC will focus on inviting North Carolina and Virginia as new members.

Scenario 3: The SEC expands by adding North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia and Virginia Tech. Although the SEC will not seek to acquire all four schools from the states of North Carolina and Virginia, it may be forced to consider that scenario in order to expand into new markets to the north. Jason Miyares, Attorney General of Virginia, reportedly has made comments signaling that both schools should stay together in the ACC or, if they leave, they should leave together for membership in the same conference. In North Carolina, House Speaker Tim Moore, explicitly said both North Carolina schools need to be in the same conference and there would be resistance to them being in separate conferences. As a result, the political climates of North Carolina and Virgina may dictate the addition of four schools, for a total of 20, if the SEC wants to expand north into North Carolina and Virginia.

That’s it, those are the scenarios for the SEC. You may ask, “what about FSU, Clemson and Miami?” The answer is, “what about them?” At best, the SEC theoretically might consider the addition of Miami because it arguably brings a new, south Florida market to the conference. However, this remains unlikely when you consider the lack of fan support and lack of success from Miami during the past twenty years.

There is one fundamental problem for fans of FSU, Clemson and Miami: The addition of any school from within the current SEC footprint is highly undesired by the commissioner and conference presidents and, therefore, highly unlikely. You may ask, “what about Texas?” Yes, Texas was added from within the existing SEC footprint two years ago, but to be blunt, Texas is Texas…neither FSU, Clemson nor Miami is Texas. Both Texas and Oklahoma add market share and, as a result, add value. After all, conference realignment is all about television revenues…that’s all. Further, Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina do not support the addition of their rival schools, which all reside within the SEC footprint. In addition, Alabama, Auburn, and Tennessee all have good reason to oppose the addition of FSU, Clemson and Miami for recruiting-purposes alone.

After considering the likely scenarios for the Big 10 outlined above, the best scenario for the SEC is to let those three ACC schools (FSU, Clemson and Miami) die on the ACC’s proverbial vine for the next several years and never allow them admission to the SEC. They have no where else to go and the SEC can essentially eliminate three schools from the recruiting trail over time. After all, FSU, Clemson and Miami already know this is a real threat because they currently are begging the SEC for admission to avoid what FSU President McCullough referred to as an “existential threat” last week.

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