Handicapping Week 2: Brian Edwards' college football wagers

Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.

South Carolina covered the spread in its 35-14 win over Georgia St. as a 12.5-point home favorite. The 49 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 55-point total.

My pick on the Gamecocks to go ‘over’ their team total (33.5 points) was a winner, but my three straight plays went 1-2 against the spread. Also, my three-team, money-line parlay failed to cash when Boston College allowed a lead to get away late in the fourth quarter of a 22-21 home loss to Rutgers. Therefore, I went 2-3 ATS in Week 1.

In Week 2, Shane Beamer’s team plays its SEC opener at Arkansas. Although Arkansas coach Sam Pittman is playing coy regarding the injuries to two of his starters – safety Jalen Catalon and cornerback Myles Slusher – in the secondary, it feels like a safe bet that neither player will be in uniform on Saturday.

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Slusher is believed to be in concussion protocol, while Catalon appeared to sustain a shoulder injury in Week 1. Catalon, a third-team All-American in 2020, missed the last seven games of 2021 due to a shoulder issue.

Slusher started seven games last year, contributing 50 tackles, four passes broken up, three tackles for loss, two interceptions, two QB hurries and 0.5 sacks. In only six games, Catalon recorded 46 tackles, four PBU, two interceptions, 1.5 TFL’s and one QB hurry.

As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Arkansas listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. The total was 52.5 or 53 points, while USC was +265 on the money line (risk $100 to win $265). For first-half wagers, DraftKings has the Razorbacks at -4.5 with a -115 price.

Pittman’s team improved to 4-3 ATS in seven games as a home favorite during his tenure with last week’s 31-24 win over Cincinnati as a six-point ‘chalk.’ As a road underdog during Beamer’s first season at the helm, South Carolina went 1-2 ATS in three such spots. The Gamecocks covered in a loss at Georgia, but they failed to do so in lopsided defeats at Tennessee and at Texas A&M.

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USC has lost in 10 of its last 11 SEC road assignments and has dropped eight of 11 all-time games it has played at Arkansas. However, the Gamecocks won convincingly by a 52-7 count as 4.5-point road favorites in their last trip to Fayetteville in 2013.

In fact, USC has won three consecutive head-to-head meetings over the Hogs, including a 48-22 win as a three-point home underdog in 2017. The ‘over’ has been a winner in this rivalry five straight times and is 8-1 in the nine encounters since 2006. Those eight ‘overs’ combined with the lone ‘under’ have gone North of the closing totals by 102 combined points.

I made the total 56. With Arkansas expected to be without two key starters on defense, we’ll go with ‘over’ 52.5 points.

Enter Gamecock Central’s Predict & Win: South Carolina-Arkansas

Other Week 2 College Football Picks

Appalachian St. +19 at Texas A&M

This is the first double-digit underdog situation for Appalachian St. since its season opener in 2018 when the Mountaineers lost 45-38 at Penn St. in overtime as a 23.5-point ‘dog. They’re 5-1 ATS in six contests as road ‘dogs since that heartbreaker in Happy Valley. Shawn Clark’s team went 2-0 ATS with one outright win in a pair of games as a ‘dog last year, beating 14th-ranked Coastal Carolina outright as a 4.5-point pup and losing 25-23 at Miami as an eight-point ‘dog. Miami had to kick a walk-off field goal on the game’s final play to escape with a victory.

I was surprised when Jimbo Fisher selected Haynes King as his starting QB over LSU transfer, Max Johnson. We’ve now seen King play eight quarters (plus a few snaps at Colorado in Week 2 of 2021 before he sustained a season-ending injury) vs. Kent St. (last year) and Sam Houston St. He’s thrown five interceptions in that small sample of career playing time.

App St. has lost by more than 10 points only twice in its last 45 games and three times in its last 63 outings.

Alabama -11.5 in the first half at Texas

Steve Sarkisian’s team lost two offensive starters to season-ending injuries in August. Wyoming transfer WR Isaiah Neyor was expected to play a huge role after arriving in Austin fresh off a 44-catch, 878-yard campaign that included 12 TD grabs. Also, junior offensive guard Junior Angilau went down last month. He was a fourth-team All-Big-12 selection last year with 34 career starts to his credit.

I expect Alabama to strike early and often offensively behind QB Bryce Young, the reigning Heiman Trophy winner. To avoid a potential backdoor cover in the second half when Nick Saban is known to take his foot off the accelerator, especially against former assistants of his, I believe ‘Bama in the first half is the best way to attack this noon Eastern kick.

Win a framed picture of The Hit (Jadeveon Clowney)

Wake Forest -13 at Vanderbilt

I actually played Wake Forest at -7 on Sunday night before the news of Sam Hartman’s return to the lineup was announced. Truth be told, however, I feel better about the Demon Deacons’ chances of cashing tickets at -13 with Hartman than at -7 without him. Hartman, who has started 33 times in his 36 career games, has a 72/29 touchdown-to-interception ratio with 727 rushing yards and 16 TDs. He is poised to pass Riley Skinner as the program’s all-time leader in career passing yards in the next 2-3 games.

Vandy is out to a 2-0 start with double-digit wins at Hawaii and at Elon. But the Rainbow Warriors might be the nation’s worst FBS team and the Phoenix are an FCS school. Those wins by the Commodores have created outstanding line value for us here. I think Wake wins by three TDs.

Maryland Team Total ‘over’ 24.5 points in the first half at Charlotte

The 49ers have given up 43 and 41 points to Florida Atlantic and William & Mary, respectively, in their first two games. In last year’s regular-season finale, Charlotte gave up 56 points to Old Dominion. In the two games prior to the loss to ODU, Marshall and La. Tech scored 49 and 42 points against the 49ers, respectively. I think this play represents the best strategy in going against a defense that hasn’t shown a pulse in five straight contests dating back to 2021.

Pittsburgh +7 vs. Tennessee

WynnBET had the Volunteers favored by seven late Wednesday night. If your number is 6.5, buy the half-point to the key number of seven. The Panthers might be without RB Rodney Hammond, who had 129 all-purpose yards and two TDs in last Thursday’s 38-31 home win over West Virginia. However, Pitt has two other veteran RBs (Israel Abanikanda and Vincent Davis), who combined for 1,244 rushing yards and 11 TDs last season. Pat Narduzzi’s squad is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.

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