How Massey, ESPN metrics predict South Carolina to finish the season

South Carolina is on a bye and sitting at a spot no one in the program thought they’d be. The Gamecocks are 2-3 (1-2 SEC) and will use this week to prepare for a pivotal stretch run. 

With the Gamecocks taking a breather, it’s time to look at where they also sit in the predictive metrics about halfway through the season.

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Where South Carolina, opponents rank

ESPN’s Bill Connelly–the founder of the SP+ rankings has South Carolina as No. 41 nationally. Thats good for No. 12 in the conference the only SEC teams lower being Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. 

The Gamecocks are one of just four three-loss teams in the SP+ top 50. Texas Tech (No. 32), Arkansas (39) and Cincinnati (No. 48) are the other.s

Connelly’s formula ranks South Carolina’s offense as the strength of the team, No. 27 nationally. The defense ranks No. 78 while the special teams sit at No. 32. 

The Gamecocks’ offense ranks sixth-best in the SEC behind LSU, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss. The defense ranks No. 13 ahead of only Vanderbilt. The special teams is eighth-best. 

South Carolina will have to play just two more top-30 offenses in the SP+ rankings: Clemson (26) and Texas A&M (28). The Gamecocks will have to play four top-30 defenses, though: A&M, Kentucky, Clemson and Missouri. 

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South Carolina has also played arguably the toughest schedule of anyone in the SEC right now to date. 

Massey has South Carolina as the No. 43 team in the country with the No. 1 strengh of schedule. The offense ranks No. 31 while the defense sits at 50. 

ESPN’s FPI slots South Carolina at No. 47 nationally. It has the offense at No. 33 and the defense at No. 65. 

Here’s where each metric has the Gamecocks’ remaining opponents.

SP+: Florida, No. 34; Missouri, No. 27; Texas A&M, No. 11; Jacksonville State, No. 97; Vanderbilt, No. 83; Kentucky, No. 21; Clemson, No. 14

Massey: Florida, No. 34; Missouri, No. 27; Texas AM, No. 20; Jacksonville State, No. 97; Vanderbilt, No. 102; Kentucky, No. 22; Clemson, No. 30

FPI: Florida, No. 37; Missouri, No. 27; Texas AM, No. 16; Jacksonville State, No. 101; Vanderbilt, No. 102; Kentucky, No. 31; Clemson, No. 17

Massey prediction 

If Massey’s predictions hold, make sure to stock up on some antacid pills because South Carolina will have a ton of close games after the bye week. 

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As it sits right now, Massey has the Gamecocks favored in three of their final seven games with at least a 45 percent chance to win two others. Of the seven remaining games, Massey predicts four to be one-score games. Three of those were decided by less than a field goal. 

Massey gives South Carolina a 51 percent chance to beat Florida with a predicted one-point victory. The next games after Florida South Carolina is favored in is against Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. Massey gives the Gamecocks a 93 percent chance to beat the other Gamecocks and an 84 percent chance to notch a home win over the Commodores. 

Both games are projected to be multi-score wins for South Carolina: 37-14 over Jacksonville St. and 38-21 over Vanderbilt. 

Massey gives South Carolina a 45 percent chance to upset Missouri on the road. It gives the Gamecocks a 48 percent chance to beat a currently undefeated Kentucky team at Williams-Brice. South Carolina is also projected to lose to the Tigers by a field goal and lose 27-26 to Kentucky. 

The toughest remaining games are at Texas A&M and home to Clemson. The Gamecocks have a sub-35 percent chance in both of those. Massey gives South Carolina a 23 and 32 percent chance respectively in those games. It predicts a 35-24 in College Station and a 31-24 loss at home to its rival.

FPI prediction

The FPI is about the same as Massey, projecting the Gamecocks with a final record of 5.7-6.3. That would make South Carolina a fringe bowl team while sitting here today. 

South Carolina has a greater than 50 percent chance in the same remaining three games as Massey–Florida (57.9 percent), Jacksonville State (86.9) and Vanderbilt (87.3)–with two games with close margins. 

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The FPI gives South Carolina a 40.3 percent chance to upset Missouri on the road and a 48.7 percent chance to beat Kentucky at home. Like Massey, the two toughest games come at Texas A&M and at home against Clemson. 

The FPI gives the Gamecocks a 16.1 chance to upset the Aggies in College Station–which would be the first win there in program history–and a 28.6 percent chance to get consecutive wins over the Tigers and the first win in the rivalry at home since 2013.

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