Is midseason turnaround possible for South Carolina? Here's what history says

The hole that South Carolina has dug itself into is already plenty deep. It’s not a spot any team wants to be in at this juncture of the season.

At 1-8 in SEC play, the odds aren’t in the Gamecocks’ favor to turn things around. Fortunately, there are still 26 games left to go in the regular season, which gives them time to flip the script. It has been done before and can be again. Paul Mainieri has already proven that.

Mainieri’s been through his share of losing streaks, just like the one South Carolina broke on Tuesday after dropping seven straight games. His 2010 LSU team, the year after the Tigers won the College World Series, went on a seven-game skid going into May. Later that month, he led them to an SEC Tournament title and automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

He’s also been in this very spot that the Gamecocks sit in, identical conference record and all. In 2021, Mainieri’s final year at LSU, the Tigers were off to a 1-8 SEC start by April 3. They went on to become the only SEC team since 2010 to have started 1-8 or worse and make the postseason.

Now, as South Carolina finds itself at a crossroads, Mainieri will look to achieve this feat for a second time.

“I’ve experienced what we’ve gone through this year. And because of that, I can tell the guys this happens, especially in this league,” Mainieri told GamecockCentral. “If you don’t do what it takes to win, you’re gonna lose in this league. Some games we played I thought really well and still lost. Some games, we didn’t play so well and lost. But there’s always hope.”

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The Gamecocks will be in Starkville on Friday to open a weekend series with Mississippi State, which is also off to a 1-8 start. It begins a month of being on the road for three of their next four SEC series.

“I think going on the road is probably the hardest thing to do in the SEC. Getting a win on the road is a huge thing,” Ethan Petry told GamecockCentral. “RPI-wise, it’s huge. I mean, even people come in here and they beat us at our place, their RPI shoots up. Being at home and defending your home turf is just a lot easier than going on the road, being uncomfortable.”

The lone benefit, if there is one, is that all three roadtrips are against teams currently under .500 in the SEC. After this weekend, South Carolina will be at Texas A&M (1-8) next weekend. Then at the end of April, it will head to Lexington to take on Kentucky (4-5). It’s a much more manageable slate compared to what March entailed.

“We played four of the top what? Six teams, RPI-wise? I mean, Clemson, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas. That’s a gauntlet right there,” Petry said. “I think it’s getting us ready for what’s coming up. And I think we had opportunities to win those games. … We just couldn’t pull through. And I think now we’re at the halfway point of the season, we start winning those games now.”

History shows what South Carolina would need to do to qualify for the postseason. Since 2012, every SEC team that has reached 13 regular-season conference wins, with a top-30 RPI, has made the NCAA Tournament. The Gamecocks, currently 36th in RPI, would need to go 12-9 in their final 21 SEC games to reach the 13-win mark.

Anything short of that would make Selection Monday a lot more sweaty. Only one SEC team has made the tournament with 12 wins. That would be 2021 Alabama, which went 12-17 and won two games at the SEC Tournament.

From this point on, South Carolina will have an uphill battle to climb. However, it won’t get easier having to go on the road this weekend.

“If you’ve ever been to Starkville, Mississippi, and competed against Mississippi State,” Mainieri said, “you would understand that that’s the furthest thing from an easy game that there is.”

But if there’s one thing true about baseball, all it takes is one hot streak to turn a season around.

“We never lost confidence in the locker room. We never lost our ability to keep working and staying positive,” Petry said. “I mean, that’s kind of what I try to preach as the leader in the locker room, just staying positive. We stay positive with our pitchers, stay positive with our hitters. And everything works out. We got the win (on Tuesday). So it’s a good streak to start.”

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