MBB notebook: The numbers and reasons behind South Carolina's 0-13 conference start

South Carolina men’s basketball is still looking for its first SEC win of the 2024-25 season. That (still) hasn’t changed since the last stat dive was published. The Gamecocks are now 0-13 in conference games after their latest loss, falling to LSU. At this point in the season, every SEC team has at least three wins within the conference, besides South Carolina.

In the previous stat dive, it was established that the team’s turnover rates were directly correlated with poor offensive performance. But are the Gamecocks still being careless with the ball? And which lineups are working best together? We’ve got all that and more on the second edition of South Carolina men’s basketball stat dive. 

Death by 1,000 three-pointers

In the non-conference portion of the schedule, South Carolina was performing at a solid rate along the perimeter on defense. In 13 games against non-SEC competition, the Gamecocks only allowed a 31.5 3PT%, a solidly above-average rate for defenses. 

However, since entering SEC play, the team’s three-point defense has gradually and incrementally fallen off. The first seven conference games saw the Gamecocks give up a 32.7% mark from deep. That’s slightly better than the national average. 

But since the road trip to Athens, South Carolina has transformed into a colander from deep, letting most things through. The Gamecocks are shooting 30.4% from deep in their past six games. Their opponents, on the other hand, are shooting 46.2% from three. 

If extrapolated throughout the season, that mark would rank far and away as the worst in the nation. To put it in perspective, Columbia (the Ivy League variety) is the worst three-point defense in the country. Their opponents’ mark is “only” 38.7%. It’s not just a product of playing in an elite conference. Nine SEC teams are performing better than the national average from the perimeter against conference opponents. 

The Gamecocks are only behind Vanderbilt in terms of opponent 3PT% in SEC games. The ‘Dores are giving up 41.0% from deep in the 2025 calendar year. Only Collin Murray-Boyles has over 1.0 defensive win shares this season for South Carolina. Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Florida all have six players hitting that mark. 

South Carolina gave up back-to-back games of 50.0% or better from deep against Ole Miss and Florida. That hadn’t happened since 2011 when Darrin Horn’s squad did it in three straight games. 

All of South Carolina’s remaining opponents are currently shooting better or at the same rate from three as the Gamecocks. 

Examining the last two games

South Carolina basketball had two road games in its past couple of conference contests. Both games, one against a top-five opponent and the other against the team right above the Gamecocks in the SEC standings, were double-digit losses.  

If South Carolina doesn’t manage to win a conference game before the SEC Tournament, they will have gone an entire calendar year (since March 9, 2024) with a win over an SEC team. Since then, however, they’re 3-0 against ACC opponents. 

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Florida

South Carolina pushed the Gators to the brink in the first matchup between the two teams. It took a floater from Will Richard with seconds remaining to thwart what would have been a massive win for South Carolina. The rematch in Gainesville did not go similarly. 

Despite a 17-3 run for the Gamecocks in the first half, Florida’s offensive depth and perimeter shooting wore down South Carolina. Florida tallied 24 assists to South Carolina’s seven. The Gators were 14-28 from deep, with the Gamecocks managing just a 4-12 mark. Florida made more threes than South Carolina attempted. 

The Gamecocks only totaled 23 rebounds. That was their worst mark on the boards since their win over Grand Canyon early last season. On an individual level, Jacobi Wright and Nick Pringle were about the only efficient players offensively. The two combined for 25 points and a 9-14 mark (64.3%) from the field. The rest of the team was 13-36, 36.1%. On the bright side, the team was 19-23 from the free throw line, one of the best marks for the Gamecocks this year.

LSU

South Carolina was only +2.5 point underdogs against a 2-10 in-conference LSU team. But the Tigers easily surpassed that spread in a 14-point, 81-67 victory over the Gamecocks. South Carolina won the rebounding battle, but the turnover problem reared its head again. The Gamecocks committed 18 turnovers in Baton Rouge. Nick Pringle, after a solid showing against Florida, and Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk combined for half of those turnovers. Pringle had six, and Bosmans-Verdonk committed three.

Collin Murray-Boyles had another double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds, along with two steals and two blocks. Jamarii Thomas led the Gamecocks with 23 points, his highest mark with the Gamecocks. Arden Conyers even had a decent showing off the bench, hitting a trio of triples for nine points in 18 minutes of action.

But LSU’s three-point shooting, (and South Carolina’s lack of defense) put the game out of reach. The Tigers made 13 threes, marking the second straight game that South Carolina has given up 10+ threes, and the fifth time this year. Vyctorius Miller, Cam Carter, and Mike Williams II all hit three shots from beyond the arc in LSU’s double-digit win.

Quick hitters

Including postseason tournament games, Jordan Butler is 0-32 in games against SEC opponents in his career. 

Jamarii Thomas is averaging 5.3 free throws per game. That mark is in the 97th percentile amongst D-1 guards. 

Arden Conyers has a season mark of 17.7% of his points coming on second chances. But all of his points in the past five games have come on first chances from the Gamecocks. 

Zachary Davis has improved as a rebounder as the season has progressed, despite the team’s record. After averaging 2.8 defensive rebounds per game against non-conference opponents, he’s averaging 3.7/game against SEC competition. 

Only Missouri has a higher free-throw attempt rate than the Gamecocks. South Carolina’s mark of 42.5% ranks 14th nationally out of 364 D-I teams. 

South Carolina is only averaging 63.5 PPG in SEC games. That’s a -6.6 PPG regression from last year’s tournament team, and the mark is last in the conference by over three points.

Despite a season-long mark of 2.6 turnovers per game, Collin Murray-Boyles has taken care of the ball recently. The sophomore forward has cut that number down to 1.6 per game in the Gamecocks’ past five games. 

Win tickets to Senior Day, South Carolina-Kentucky women’s basketball game

Jacobi Wright has been shooting the ball much more efficiently as of late. Wright has a season mark of 48.1 2PT%, but in the past five games, that mark has risen to 72.2%. He’s averaging 10.3 PPG in that span, including 13 against Florida. 

The highest plus/minus posted in a loss for South Carolina this season was from Morris Ugusuk. The sophomore guard had a +12 mark in the one-point loss to Florida earlier this year. 

South Carolina has put together two runs of 17-0 this season. One of those came against East Carolina, but the other came in a loss to Xavier. Last season, all of South Carolina’s runs of 14+ points came in wins. 

Zachary Davis has a steal percentage of 2.6% this season. That mark, however, rises to 5.8% in the clutch, over a 100% increase.

When Murray-Boyles and Thomas are both on the court, the team’s net rating is +1.8. When both are off the court, the team’s net rating falls to -21.5. 

What’s next?

Fortunately for South Carolina, the rest of the schedule is easier than the past 13 games. It’s still difficult because this is the SEC, but it does provide chances to win games. Five games are remaining: Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee. 

In this stat dive, however, we’ll just be discussing the games against Texas and Missouri. The Gamecocks get to face the Longhorns at home but travel to the other Columbia to take on Missouri. 

Texas is one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the conference. Its mark from deep of 36.1% ranks 4th in the SEC. How has South Carolina fared against similar teams? They’ve lost close to Auburn, but were blown out by Kentucky, the best three-point shooting team in the conference. 

The Longhorns are also very efficient from the stripe. Texas has a 75.4 FT% this season, 2nd in the conference. This is a stark contrast to South Carolina’s 69.8 FT%, which is 14th in the conference. Texas has also shown an ability to play disciplined on offense and take care of the ball. They’re one of just three SEC teams that are averaging less than 10.0 turnovers per game.  

Freshman Tre Johnson is Texas’s leader. The five-star recruit is pacing the Longhorns with 19.8 PPG. That mark leads the conference, and he’s top three in points produced in the SEC this season. Arthur Kaluma and Jordan Pope are also in double figures for Rodney Terry’s squad this season. 

Missouri is one of the pleasant surprises in the SEC this season. Behind a deep roster and a high-scoring offense, the Tigers have jumped into the top 25 polls with staying power. Currently, Dennis Gates’s squad is 20-6 overall and 9-4 against SEC opponents. 

Notably, the two programs “traded” forwards in the offseason, with former Gamecock Josh Gray deciding to join Mizzou over the summer. Jordan Butler returned to his home state to play for the Gamecocks after one year at Missouri. This year, Gray is averaging 15.5 MPG, 3.2 PPG, and leads the Tigers with 5.1 RPG. Butler is averaging 5.2 MPG, 1.4 PPG, and 0.7 RPG. 

The Tigers are 5th in the conference with 83.7 PPG, and are 2nd with a 37.1 3PT%. They don’t commit many turnovers, (10.5 per game) and are adept at taking the ball away. Missouri is the only SEC team averaging at least 10.0 steals per game. 

Missouri is the only team in the entirety of D-I averaging at least 20.0 free throws made per game. They also don’t have any glaring weaknesses and are in the top 50 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. This is simply a horrible matchup for the Gamecocks, as the Tigers are extremely skilled at nearly every category that South Carolina has struggled with. 

The Tigers are led by a trio of players averaging at least 13.0 PPG. That trio is Mark Mitchell, Tamar Bates, and Caleb Grill. All three started their collegiate careers at other schools. Don’t sleep on Anthony Robinson II. The guard is 2nd in the SEC with 2.0 SPG and in the top 10 in the conference in both assist and steal percentage. 

Since Lamont Paris and Dennis Gates were hired in the offseason of 2022, the two teams have alternated success. 

2022: Missouri goes 25-10 overall, 11-7 in the SEC. The Tigers make the Round of 32. South Carolina goes 11-21 overall, 4-14 in the SEC. The Gamecocks do not make the tournament. 

2023: Missouri goes 8-24 overall, 0-18 in the SEC. The Tigers do not make the tournament. South Carolina goes 26-8 overall, 13-5 in the SEC. The Gamecocks make the Round of 64. 

2024: Missouri is 20-6 overall, 9-4 in the SEC. The Tigers are considered a lock for the tournament. South Carolina is 10-16, 0-13 in the SEC. The Gamecocks are not currently being considered for postseason tournaments. 

If this trend continues, South Carolina shouldn’t have to worry about anything next year. Of course, it’s disingenuous to tie the Gamecocks’ fortunes to a double-edged sword stretching between the two Columbia’s. But staring a winless conference season in the face, this could be the best train of thought. 

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